Posted on 03/10/2020 6:42:07 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
............. More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.
Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.
China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.
...............
The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Sounds more like wishful thinking from a pro-Trump mouthpiece and less like reasoned analysis backed by science and data.
And anyone who bought S&P futures at Monday’s close is going to be a very happy camper.
A tropical island?
Heck, that sounds like a great place to be right about now. I’m envious!
+ 1
Um....no.
>>Sounds more like wishful thinking from a pro-Trump mouthpiece and less like reasoned analysis backed by science and data.<<
I tend to agree with you to a point, but if the virus hits a hot spot like a major city in the US then all analysts opinions mean nothing. I think people are taking this very seriously and that will stop it before it becomes a crisis more than it has here in the US.
“Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted...”
I want what this guy is drinking.
Flu is more contagious when everyone is locked up in their home.
Duh.
Italian hospitals are in meltdown.
If you are over 65, or at any age if you have any co-morbid condition (diabetes, heart cond. etc), you are put outside the treatment triage. There simply are not enough staff or ICU beds or lung machines for all. You will not get into ICU, no oxygen intubation, you will just die. This is why Italy’s death rate is so high.
I think the USA will resemble Italy, not S. Korea or Taiwan, where they got way out in front of CV with massive early testing programs, early contract tracing, quarantine and social isolation EARLY.
In the USA, we missed those critical weeks and months of preparation. (Too much “it’s just the flu” BS happy talk.)
/ / / /
(From the beginning of the thread reader, link to it all is below.)
/ / / / /
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
[All of the report from an Italian physician at the thread reader link below]
PART ONE
PART TWO
Already sold them.
This kind of crap swinging up and down is not the sign of a healthy market.
It looks like a “stemmie” on an EKG.
Long term, we will be fine. But this hasn’t bottomed out yet.
“Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.”
No, because it’s less lethal and there’s a vaccine.
Just got off the phone with business partner in Asia. He has friends who contracted and are now well on way to recovery.
Be of good cheer!
So there’s still hope — for Captain Trips.
Which Southern States (AKA, spring break destinations) have declared a health emergency?
Students returning to COVID-free northern states should be quarantined!
Yep. Using data from China and elsewhere, such as here, where testing has been so limited is not very helpful.
Sounds like wishful thinking, yes, but don’t blame Trump.
:)
“Sounds more like wishful thinking from a pro-Trump mouthpiece...”
Yep, what could be more horrible than a pro-Trump mouthpiece. Now, someone like Nicole Wallace giving her opinion is what we should all be waiting for.
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