Posted on 09/22/2019 3:33:35 PM PDT by MarvinStinson
Conservative leaders are circulating data to White House staff that claims adults who vape will turn on President Trump if he follows through with his planned ban on flavored e-cigarettes, Axios has learned.
Between the lines: The data (shown below) reveals that the number of adult vapers in key battleground states greatly outweighs the margins by which Trump won those states in 2016 — and they argue it could cost him reelection.
What we're hearing: "While parents may be concerned about e-cigarettes, the people who genuinely care about vaping as a voting issue so far outweighs the number of people Trump needs to win in 2020 that they are royally screwing themselves by doing this," Paul Blair, the director of strategic initiatives at Americans for Tax Reform, tells me.
Suburban moms concerned about vaping "don't have the same voter intensity on this as adult vapers do," an industry lobbyist said. Florida, which Trump won by 113,000 voters, had about 873,000 adult vapers in 2016. They reason that if 1 in 8 vapers turn against Trump in 2020 because he foreclosed their vaping options, it could jeopardize the election. Why it matters: If the FDA backs away from Trump's proposed enforcement policy, it would be the second time in recent weeks that political concerns prompted him to dial back government regulations.
Trump's openness this summer to expanded background checks cooled after the gun lobby and campaign advisers warned about bad internal polling. Our thought bubble: There are four unsubstantiated assumptions about adult vapers in the case being presented to Trump:
They start out as Trump voters. They wouldn't vape anymore if they couldn't get the flavors. They are single-issue voters around vaping rights. The eventual Democratic nominee would be more vape-friendly. Still, the math can't be totally ignored, especially in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump's 2016 win margins were so narrow and the number of adult vapers is relatively high.
By the numbers: More than 4 million people in swing states regularly used e-cigarettes in 2016, according to FDA-funded survey data published last year in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Industry experts say that number has increased significantly in recent years.
Data: Mirboulouk, et. al, 2016, "Prevalence and Distribution of E-Cigarette Use Among U.S. Adults: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2016", Census Bureau, Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios Behind the scenes: The White House scheduled a listening session with conservative groups last Thursday after receiving intense backlash from GOP leaders and industry execs following the announcement of the ban.
Among the invitees: The Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Goldwater Institute, AFT and the Vapor Technology Association. But roughly 24 hours after invitations went out, the meeting was canceled. "They’re in chaos mode on this stuff because the backlash has been so resoundingly overpowering," one invitee said. A White House official says the meeting is expected to be rescheduled. The bottom line: The political pressure points regarding the ban have gotten Trump's attention.
Shortly after the proposed ban was announced, Trump tweeted that he still likes vaping as an alternative to cigarettes. Trump's 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale also hit back at a Trump follower who tweeted that banning vaping products is "not on brand with MAGA." One administration official said the tweets were prompted by a flood of criticism from conservative leaders.
It is curious that each ‘single issue’ is the one that is going to cause voters to abandon Trump.
The GOPers may be that fastidious, but the main base is still holding strong. Otherwise, 10s of thousands would not be showing up at his rallies.
The dark side of propylene glycol in e-cigarettes used for vaping:
https://www.honeycolony.com/article/propylene-glycol/
I agree. The liberals will only approve vaping if it’s marijuana.
A possible downturn in the economy or stock market looks unhelpful too.
“I’d still vote for him again...”
As wiil I and I’m a vaper. My point being, any of us or our allies he does lose will very likely not be picked up from the other side as Drango earlier asserted.
I am not a vaper or a smoker anymore.
However there is some merit to this.
One reason to vote Republican is they are for smaller government. This is not smaller government. This is Nanny State Crap.
If Trump does this there will be people who will either vote Democrat or just say F’ it, there’s no difference between the parties and stay home instead of voting for Trump.
All the Nanny State Health Nazis are on the left and not voting for him anyhow. This will be like Bush’s online gambling ban all over again.
The Fedgov should stay the hell out of this and most other things.
I don’t think vaping will be the “make or break” issue for 2020.
No questionable methodology or bias possible from a lobbyist, right?
I don’t vape or smoke cigs anymore. Yup, this is nanny state crappola. This is the crap people like Bloomberg and De Blasio do in NYC. Hopefully this is just another Trump head fake.
The election is already probably going to be super close. Why give anyone a reason to stay home or switch at this point? Nobody is going to change their vote if he doesn’t ban flavored vaping. A certain % of voters will stay home over it if he bans it for sure.
Freegards
Let’s just outlaw things because we don’t like them and don’t believe other people should be allowed to do things we don’t like.
. Now, if he does something stupid on guns.....
So they are going to vote for a commie that will ban all vaping instead ??
Never knew so much was riding on smoke. Republicans have to be for legalizing weed and for vaping, and against cigarettes and cigars and for clean air because if not, we’ll lose to the gun grabbing, tax hiking, economy destroying Communists.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again - First Ladies should like children; seen but not heard.
Cigarettes killed millions. We do not need a repeat!
Leave vapers alone. This reminds me of the Republicans thinking it would be a good idea to go after online gambling. The one percent who had that as a single issue were otherwise inclined to vote Republican.
Just GFY, all of you.
He would be wise to at least stay out of this one, or at most promote any and all regulation be done at the state level..
I think you're right.
...... Why can’t the Prez wait until after the election to move on this issue?
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