Posted on 08/24/2019 7:14:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each.
Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.
The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when President Donald Trumps administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator.
The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the U.S. and China over technology. In a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a Thucydides Trap, China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth.
The U.S. has placed the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an entity list reserved for foreign companies deemed to pose a national-security threat. And although Huawei has received temporary exemptions allowing it to continue using U.S. components, the Trump administration this week announced that it was adding an additional 46 Huawei affiliates to the list.
The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices CL.1, -0.37% have fallen in recent weeks, and a recession triggered by a trade, currency, and tech war would depress energy demand and drive prices lower, Americas confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect.
Should that conflict escalate into a military conflict, global oil prices could spike and bring on a recession, as happened during previous Middle East conflagrations in 1973, 1979, and 1990.
All three of these potential shocks would have a stagflationary effect, increasing the price of imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technological components, and energy, while reducing output by disrupting global supply chains.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
So what what you want to do is return to the days of Hillary’s unfaithful husband.
If you think a balanced budget is the top priority you can move to Argentina, because they are forced to have them now, since they did a deal with the IMF. You’ll get a high rate on your savings, too.
So many doomsayers, not enough gloom to go around.
Are all these guys so invested in China and the Globalists that it doesn’t matter what China does or has been doing for the last few decades? No matter what, everyone is supposed to lay down and thank China for the scraps they provide? These people are incredible. Instead of talking about how China has been stealing everyone’s technology and R&D, etc, for decades, it’s all doom and gloom and all must obey China.
“There will be mass withdrawals to other assets like ... WHAT?”
Cash, gold, bonds, and if you rally believe the market is going to crash you can buy puts, sell short or a bit of all the above. Even bitcoins.
The US is in excellent shape to go the distance on this one with minimum negative impact and maximum positive impact to our economy.
Our energy sector is incredible and we are now de fact energy independent despite the attempts by President Obama and the Saudis to destroy it. This is the cornerstone and its importance cannot be overemphasized because it insulates us from economic shocks from larger external world economic events. The US is independent and can go it alone if necessary whereas if the US dollar got killed and oil went to $500 per barrel due weak dollar exchange rates and oil shock, our economy would be ruined by high energy costs and could not produce products cheap enough to take advantage of the export opportunities of a very weak dollar.
People really do not fully grasp just how badly our country has been deindustrialized. Most and negative impact in the trade war is more than offset by the economic activity generated by the initial capitol investment in infrastructure put in place to bring manufacturing back, followed by the economic activity and comparatively high wage manufacturing jobs created when the newly commissioned capitol assets go into production
President Trumps Team is rebuilding our economy from the ground up and supply disruptions from overseas actually benefit us in the long term as production of raw materials and products long which long ago was shipped overseas comes back to domestic production
This is a huge win for us as long as the supply disruptions dont shut down domestic production excessively. One of the biggest reasons our political class hates Donald Trump do much is he is really demonstrating to the America people just how incompetent they are as makes great progress in solving problems they claimed were insoluble and starts reversing the steady decline of our country they maintain is inevitable. Soon the perception may shift from a perception of simple incompetence to outright sabotage and treason as people begin to realize just what has been going on
Aligned with guess who?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini
An Iranian Jew raised in Turkey and educated in Milan and Harvard. A Keynesian.
I do agree with at least the latter part of this quote:
Asked whether he invests in stocks, he replied, “Not as much these days. I used to have a lot in equitiesabout 75%but over the past three years, I’ve had about 95% in cash and 5% in equities. You’re not getting much from savings these days but earning 0% is better than losing 50%. ... I don’t believe in picking individual stocks or assets. ... Never invest your money as though you are gambling at the casino. Buying and selling individual stocks is a waste of time.”
Trump really should have had an infrastructure bill passed, this could have kept steel production going and we wouldn’t have plants closing.
Beeber, stuned.
Your post is full of wisdom. Too bad so many people do not understand what is going on. At some point, events will bring down the house that George Orwell warned us about decades ago. Lately, I have read several examples of how the left constantly changes our language in a way that confuses our perception of what is said. Recently, I have read several articles which no longer refer to a spouse as a husband or wife. Now, they are referred to in elite circles, as “partners,” so that one does not know whether they cohabitate or are gay. I resent that. I want to know whether people are married or not, and, it would be helpful to know if they are gay. Such a thing would not discriminate against anyone, but would just give us an idea of the culture we live in. Some of us are slow learners and need time to change perceptions we always thought were timeless.
This person is an idiot on each point.
I haven't made money by savings in years and then I didn't have money. I still saved. I also invested in stocks, bonds and annuities via my retirement plans. The problem with high interest rates is high mortgage rates. When I got more on my tiny savings account, I couldn't afford to buy a home.
Having worked in manufacturing for the past 30 years I find your statement: “People really do not fully grasp just how badly our country has been deindustrialized.” to be without merit.
Are there factories that could have been developed here instead of elsewhere - absolutely. Are there still factories that do machining, plastic, wire, circuit board, chip, steel, rubber, glass, etc ad naseum. ABSOLUTELY
And they are hiring.
They are talking of negative interests rates.
At that point, it will be nuts. Go to hard metals like gold, silver, and lead.
Marriage is a legal contract between partners, and should certainly be referred to separately from two people simply “playing married”. Partners in a marriage contract have rights and responsibilities that simply don’t exist when people just live together; joint responsibility for finances comes to mind first. If I live with my girlfriend I’m not legally responsible for her spending - or entitled to the joint assets if she dies (for example, her family would have a stronger legal claim to her car, pets, etc.).
Today, however, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve are already pursuing monetary-policy easing...
This is clearly not true. The Fed has raised rates 8 times since Trump was elected President from 0.5% to 2.5%. At no time in this period did monthly inflation reach 3.0%. In June the Fed lowered their rate to 2.25% but this is still too high.
Any increase in prices from China trade will be offset as we replace that with trade from other more reasonable countries willing to trade with us.
Return the Fed rate to 0.5% and we'll see what happens.
Blah, blah, blah!
Gold? Real Estate?
Fake news started with financial news.
I’m a 30 yr vet of finance and right now Google and it’s minions are doing everything they can to talk down the economy.
Gee, why would that be...hmmmm?
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