Posted on 08/14/2019 5:00:12 AM PDT by Carriage Hill
Moody's Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.
The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.
The time between 1995 and 2000 was when the first Internet boom kicked in.
It sure seems that way. The signal is out. The market cries sell!
Of course, we keep getting reminded that the market is not the economy. Like diversity is our strength. Sure, I believe in both statements. Not.
“It’s time to start talking down the economy. The powers that be want to blame something on Trump. Get people despairing and ready for a change.”
That is why...
Moody’s Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China .... could this just be one of the Wall St Globalist’s that has invested so heavily in ripping off Americans, by outsourcing everything to make a buck off cheap labor and doesn’t like the fact that the President is leveling the playing field?
Drudge has gone Full Retard/Full Lefty. His front page is nothing but anti-Trump crap.
Disgusting what happened to him. I wonder if this is the end point of homosexuality (see: David Brock)?
Reminds me of a tragic story from the 30s I believe. A load of people were transported on a small barge and all rushed to one side of it to see something. The barge turned over and many drowned.
The market is like people on the barge. Everybody rushes to one side when someone says, “Oh look!” It is not like we haven’t been seeing this convergence for quite some time now.
Cavuto and the rest of the NeverTrump Globalists have been screaming “recession” and complaining about the trade war since day one.
But alas, here you have the leftists strategy for 2020:
1) All opposition to the leftist agenda must be silenced because they are all “white supremacists.”
2) Recession is coming. Blame Trump.
Our treasury guys were on top of things and figured it out early and President Bush acted decisively to trip financial circuit breakers and halt the drain after only 350-750 billion dollars of liquidity had been drained from the economy. The event caused economic havoc and we have really not fully recovered from the event to this day. God only knows what would have happened if much more had been withdrawn.
President Bush asked for 750 billion dollars to inject into the economy repair the damage based on Treasury Department recommendations.
After the election, Congressional investigators were told by intelligence analysts that the event was an act of economic warfare that would have been an economic Pearl Harbor if it had not been stopped when it did.
The media, the Democrat controlled Congress and President Obama did not dig deeply on this which speaks volumes as to who is responsible as they seemed to be the ones who won big during the event.
Unanswered was just who was responsible for a coordinated attempt to remove 4-7 trillion dollars from the US economy in the space of one day.
Who has control of 4 -7 trillion dollars and enough financial sophistication and clout to mobilize the assets and remove them -all in the space of a single day?
Story of the SS Eastland disaster, 1915.
Not this time, not with this President.
The Deep State, even then...
I suspect a great many will do that early 2020 and through the election, wishing they had done so did in 2008.
Plus...the stock market is NOT the economy.
Bingo it’s akin to a kitten during a thunder storm and a yoyo,only the fast money wishers never take the long term road.
Apparently the first step was to talk down the spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields.
“An inverted yield curve means the Federal Reserve has manipulated short term rates way above what the market would charge.”
Yes, that’s happened in the past.
That’s not what is happening now. Due to a half dozen European nations offering NEGATIVE yield on their debt the market has bid down US debt at out auctions.
It sure could be used to manipulate the market couldn’t it? Which came first? The chicken or the egg?
Reliably predicting 12 of the last five recessions...
“The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was December 2005”
I was a mortgage broker and I saw the handwriting on the wall in January of 2005. Called my realtor and said “things are going to get bad dump my mountain house because I’m not going to be able to make two mortgage payments.” I sold it in December 2005 at the top of the market made a good profit and things immediately started heading South for 10 years.
Similar but not the same one I m thinking of.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.