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Election model that predicted 2018 blue wave has Trump losing, liberal voters ‘terrified’
Washington Examiner ^ | 07/01/19 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye

A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.

An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.

Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.

“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”

That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.

“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.

Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.


TOPICS: Editorial; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2020; 2020election; bs; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2020; fakenews; fakepolls; mediawingofthednc; michigan; nevertrumpers; partisanmediashills; pennsylvania; presstitutes; rachelbitecofer; smearmachine; tds; trump; walkaway; wisconsin
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To: NELSON111

FR needs a call back button so it would ping you when you set a date. That way we could see how wrong we are, ha.

Warren/Kamala might be the smartest move but I’m not sure male minority voters will turn out for a woman candidate or an all-women ticket like they would for a male minority nominee.

Freegards


41 posted on 07/01/2019 8:56:20 PM PDT by Ransomed
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To: tbw2

Oh, but they’ll stop if a Democrat is elected, and normalcy restored. •eyeroll•


42 posted on 07/01/2019 8:57:22 PM PDT by gundog ( Hail to the Chief, bitches!)
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To: lasereye

Do not underestimate the Silent Majority...and overestimate the youth of today...


43 posted on 07/01/2019 8:57:43 PM PDT by dpetty121263
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To: lasereye

I think the House seats lost in 2018 were in the normal historic range. A blue wave would have seen a loss of the Senate. We gained Senate seats.


44 posted on 07/01/2019 8:57:58 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: lasereye

I wonder what the computer would make of a boatload of indictments.


45 posted on 07/01/2019 8:59:38 PM PDT by gundog ( Hail to the Chief, bitches!)
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To: bigbob

OK, so we have a model with a VERY limited pool of information to draw on. I wouldn’t call that a model. I would call that guesswork.

And you cannot tell me that southern black Democrat men are going to run out and vote for Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren because neither is Trump.


46 posted on 07/01/2019 8:59:39 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("...a choice between Woke-fevered Democrats and Koch-funded Republicans is insufficient."-Mark Steyn)
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To: buckalfa
Yet do not forget how razor thin was the President's margins in the states that put him in the White House.

Don't forget Blexit, and don't forget the vast numbers of people who just SAT OUT the 2016 election, who now have both jobs and hope.

Trumpslide 2020, on the way to Mount Trumpmore.

(Look at the size of the Trump rallies compared to ANY Dem.)

47 posted on 07/01/2019 9:00:19 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: lasereye

50% of the House seats the Dems “won” in 2018 were stolen.


48 posted on 07/01/2019 9:00:46 PM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible")
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To: lasereye

The fuch WI will just turn over for the socialists.

Not if I can help it.


49 posted on 07/01/2019 9:02:19 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: lasereye

What about moderates and conservatives who were very doubtful about Trump in 2016 but now that he has a clear record to run on will vote for him in droves in 2020?


50 posted on 07/01/2019 9:02:31 PM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham ("God is a spirit, and man His means of walking on the earth.")
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To: lasereye

How did that model do in 2016?


51 posted on 07/01/2019 9:02:45 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Every nation gets the government it deserves." -Joseph de Maistre)
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To: jdege

Every candidate they run is awful from our perspective...but not theirs. Hillary kept their voters home.


52 posted on 07/01/2019 9:04:32 PM PDT by NELSON111 (Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog show. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
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To: jdege
And the only chance that Trump has to win in 2020 is if the Dems run another God awful candidate.

When was the last time the Democrats did not nominate a God-awful candidate?

I'm registered as an independent, but the last time I voted for a Democrat was 1972 and, yes, McGovern was a God-awful candidate.

53 posted on 07/01/2019 9:07:11 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Every nation gets the government it deserves." -Joseph de Maistre)
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To: lasereye

Just remember, many models predicted a Hillary win.

The main point I often make, and it’s important:

Ignore predictions, good or bad, just be sure to get out and VOTE for president Trump and Republicans.


54 posted on 07/01/2019 9:08:18 PM PDT by Innovative
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To: lasereye

Liberals are always terrified.


55 posted on 07/01/2019 9:09:41 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: mo

You are right that many of the RAT wins were stolen seats. The Senate seat in Arizona was for sure storm. Also remember Mueller was going to indict the President and that was revving up in the media.


56 posted on 07/01/2019 9:09:54 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: Lurker

The election is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, so should be November 3, 2020.


57 posted on 07/01/2019 9:10:43 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Williams

“ However I don’t think 2018 was a blue wave”

Whatever it was, it wasn’t good. Pelosi is speaker


58 posted on 07/01/2019 9:11:24 PM PDT by rintintin (q)
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To: lasereye; All

Election modelers possibly part-time global warming alarmists?


59 posted on 07/01/2019 9:13:45 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: All
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release.

Yeah well the same (or more) people on the right who wer all fired up in 2016 are even more so now. Trump is gonna crush them!

60 posted on 07/01/2019 9:15:20 PM PDT by rockrr ( Everything is different now...)
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