Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
FR needs a call back button so it would ping you when you set a date. That way we could see how wrong we are, ha.
Warren/Kamala might be the smartest move but I’m not sure male minority voters will turn out for a woman candidate or an all-women ticket like they would for a male minority nominee.
Freegards
Oh, but they’ll stop if a Democrat is elected, and normalcy restored. •eyeroll•
Do not underestimate the Silent Majority...and overestimate the youth of today...
I think the House seats lost in 2018 were in the normal historic range. A blue wave would have seen a loss of the Senate. We gained Senate seats.
I wonder what the computer would make of a boatload of indictments.
OK, so we have a model with a VERY limited pool of information to draw on. I wouldn’t call that a model. I would call that guesswork.
And you cannot tell me that southern black Democrat men are going to run out and vote for Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren because neither is Trump.
Don't forget Blexit, and don't forget the vast numbers of people who just SAT OUT the 2016 election, who now have both jobs and hope.
Trumpslide 2020, on the way to Mount Trumpmore.
(Look at the size of the Trump rallies compared to ANY Dem.)
50% of the House seats the Dems “won” in 2018 were stolen.
The fuch WI will just turn over for the socialists.
Not if I can help it.
What about moderates and conservatives who were very doubtful about Trump in 2016 but now that he has a clear record to run on will vote for him in droves in 2020?
How did that model do in 2016?
Every candidate they run is awful from our perspective...but not theirs. Hillary kept their voters home.
When was the last time the Democrats did not nominate a God-awful candidate?
I'm registered as an independent, but the last time I voted for a Democrat was 1972 and, yes, McGovern was a God-awful candidate.
Just remember, many models predicted a Hillary win.
The main point I often make, and it’s important:
Ignore predictions, good or bad, just be sure to get out and VOTE for president Trump and Republicans.
Liberals are always terrified.
You are right that many of the RAT wins were stolen seats. The Senate seat in Arizona was for sure storm. Also remember Mueller was going to indict the President and that was revving up in the media.
The election is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, so should be November 3, 2020.
“ However I don’t think 2018 was a blue wave”
Whatever it was, it wasn’t good. Pelosi is speaker
Election modelers possibly part-time global warming alarmists?
Yeah well the same (or more) people on the right who wer all fired up in 2016 are even more so now. Trump is gonna crush them!
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