Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
Unfortunately I think the rationale is plausible. However I don’t think 2018 was a blue wave.
Hillary 2020!
Here we go again.
November 17, 2020 is going to be so much fun.
L
I don’t think re election is by any means a shoe in
The Headline makes no sense.
Good luck ruling red states in rebellion.
Me neither.
Zero.
How many Republican’s resigned their seats in 2018, 46?
People suck.
My experience after thirty years in the business is that successful “election models” and “election modelers” who surprise the world with an amazingly accurate and unexpected predictions, are seldom so successful in subsequent elections. After their one-time amazing feat they tend to return to the accuracy of the background noise and confusion of all the other pollsters and pundits. So take it for what it is worth.
The Portland Antifa attacks on Andy Ngo - a liberal Asian gay reporters - are damning.
And the liberal media smears the classic liberal as conservative ... as if that justifies the violence.
You know what that does? Makes conservatives legitimately fear for their safety.
If liberal hate mobs are illegally blocking streets, wearing face masks and assaulting people - including POC reporters - EVERYONE is in literal danger from these liberal bullies.
He’s not even the only reporter they’ve assaulted, just the one that hits the most social justice check boxes.
AntiFa terrorists have assaulted journalists 15 times since 2017
https://www.pacificpundit.com/2019/07/01/antifa-terrorists-have-assaulted-journalists-15-times-since-2017/
it’;s not a shoe in, but when trump starts relating everything he’s done, and how little democrats always do- I think independents will stick with trump, and i think it was independents that helped bigly to elect trump=-
We’ll see- I hope America doesn’t go mental again and elect a another country destroying liberal like they did when they elected obama 2 terms-
The day before the 2016 election Rachel Bitecofer was interviewed by a Canadian radio show and she insinuated Hillary would win.
She’s a 50/50 hitter.
I don’t believe this is true at all and her prediction for 2018 was just a lucky happenstance at best.
Over 40 GOP House Reps retired. The only wave was an usual amount
of GOP retirements. That was the main reason the GOP lost the house.
How did this election model do predicting the Senate? How did it do the last presidential election? Is it new? If so, it is a sample
Size of exactly One election. If it is old, what is it’s rack record in other elections?
Hmmmm, so much left out of this story to push an “Oh Noes!!” narrative.
And if that happens, thanks to massive Demonrat voter fraud, you’ll have Civil War II.
Democrats are going to cheat like HELL, so not really expecting a major blowout for Trump IF at all.
Agree.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.