[Williams]

Unfortunately I think the rationale is plausible. However I don’t think 2018 was a blue wave.

[eyedigress]

Hillary 2020!

[buckalfa]

There are lies, damned lies, then there are statistics. Yet do not forget how razor thin was the President's margins in the states that put him in the White House.

[Lurker]

Here we go again.

November 17, 2020 is going to be so much fun.

L

[panzerkamphwageneinz]

I don’t think re election is by any means a shoe in

[Kickass Conservative]

The Headline makes no sense.

[kiryandil]

Good luck ruling red states in rebellion.

[ElkGroveDan]

My experience after thirty years in the business is that successful “election models” and “election modelers” who surprise the world with an amazingly accurate and unexpected predictions, are seldom so successful in subsequent elections. After their one-time amazing feat they tend to return to the accuracy of the background noise and confusion of all the other pollsters and pundits. So take it for what it is worth.

[CaptainK]

The day before the 2016 election Rachel Bitecofer was interviewed by a Canadian radio show and she insinuated Hillary would win.

She’s a 50/50 hitter.

[nopardons]

I don’t believe this is true at all and her prediction for 2018 was just a lucky happenstance at best.

[FlipWilson]

How did this election model do predicting the Senate? How did it do the last presidential election? Is it new? If so, it is a sample
Size of exactly One election. If it is old, what is it’s rack record in other elections?

Hmmmm, so much left out of this story to push an “Oh Noes!!” narrative.

[fieldmarshaldj]

And if that happens, thanks to massive Demonrat voter fraud, you’ll have Civil War II.

[rockinqsranch]

Democrats are going to cheat like HELL, so not really expecting a major blowout for Trump IF at all.

[Dr. Sivana]

Can’t make such a prediction without a named Dem candidate.

[ConservativeStatement]

65 million people voted for Hillary Clinton, arguably the least qualified person to be nominated for the presidency. 65 million! Anything is popular. A precious few states hold the key.

[bigbob]

I’ve read enough of her theory to summarize it: Her model is based on the amount of negative energy - anger, fear, buyers remorse, etc in the opposition party rather than on the traditional notion of pulling independents over from one side to the other. And her accuracy in 2018 was based on taking into account how motivated the Democrats were, because negative emotions like hate are stronger motivators than positive ones like contentment. There’s truth in that.

On the other hand she predicted the House race where IIRC 55 Republican representatives also retired or quit. Stevie Wonder could read those tea leaves...

I’ve looked for her prediction about the 2018 Senate race but did not find one. She doesn’t have a long track record.

Food for thought. Ask yourself “why were WE so jacked-up when Trump became the nominee?” - the apply that same question to the Democrats for 2020.

[ScottinVA]

If this country elects one of those filthy leftists over Trump next year then its ensuing downfall will be richly deserved.

[DoodleBob]

Professor Bitecofer in this recording the day before the 2016 election provides a very biased (and ultimately wrong) analysis and thinly-veiled Hillary will win prediction. I have little reason to believe her now.

[Mr. Jeeves]

“It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”

Did I miss the part where Democrats were calm and rational about Trump in 2016?

[R_Kangel]

............. The mental stability of the electorate .... especially among the Left .... has deteriorated a lot since the last Federal Election ....... We are now dealing with a totally different Animal this time around so it is much more difficult to predict the outcome of the tactics and decisions of a broken mind. It would definitely be advisable to .... Hope for the Best ..... But PREPARE .... For the WORST ......

.... Never underestimate the Strength and Cunning of your Enemy ....