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Election model that predicted 2018 blue wave has Trump losing, liberal voters ‘terrified’
Washington Examiner ^ | 07/01/19 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye

A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.

An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.

Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.

“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”

That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.

“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.

Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.


TOPICS: Editorial; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2020; 2020election; bs; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2020; fakenews; fakepolls; mediawingofthednc; michigan; nevertrumpers; partisanmediashills; pennsylvania; presstitutes; rachelbitecofer; smearmachine; tds; trump; walkaway; wisconsin
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1 posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Unfortunately I think the rationale is plausible. However I don’t think 2018 was a blue wave.


2 posted on 07/01/2019 8:32:08 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: lasereye

Hillary 2020!


3 posted on 07/01/2019 8:32:18 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west))
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To: lasereye
There are lies, damned lies, then there are statistics. Yet do not forget how razor thin was the President's margins in the states that put him in the White House.
4 posted on 07/01/2019 8:33:21 PM PDT by buckalfa (Earth First ! We Will Strip Mine The Other Planets Later !)
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To: lasereye

Here we go again.

November 17, 2020 is going to be so much fun.

L


5 posted on 07/01/2019 8:33:44 PM PDT by Lurker (Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is.)
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To: lasereye

I don’t think re election is by any means a shoe in


6 posted on 07/01/2019 8:33:48 PM PDT by panzerkamphwageneinz
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To: lasereye

The Headline makes no sense.


7 posted on 07/01/2019 8:34:06 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative (THEY LIVE, and we're the only ones wearing the Sunglasses.)
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To: lasereye

Good luck ruling red states in rebellion.


8 posted on 07/01/2019 8:37:03 PM PDT by kiryandil (Never pick a fight with an angry beehive)
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To: panzerkamphwageneinz

Me neither.


9 posted on 07/01/2019 8:37:31 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Kickass Conservative

Zero.

How many Republican’s resigned their seats in 2018, 46?

People suck.


10 posted on 07/01/2019 8:38:20 PM PDT by Eddie01
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To: lasereye

My experience after thirty years in the business is that successful “election models” and “election modelers” who surprise the world with an amazingly accurate and unexpected predictions, are seldom so successful in subsequent elections. After their one-time amazing feat they tend to return to the accuracy of the background noise and confusion of all the other pollsters and pundits. So take it for what it is worth.


11 posted on 07/01/2019 8:39:26 PM PDT by ElkGroveDan (My tagline is in the shop.)
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To: Williams

The Portland Antifa attacks on Andy Ngo - a liberal Asian gay reporters - are damning.

And the liberal media smears the classic liberal as conservative ... as if that justifies the violence.

You know what that does? Makes conservatives legitimately fear for their safety.

If liberal hate mobs are illegally blocking streets, wearing face masks and assaulting people - including POC reporters - EVERYONE is in literal danger from these liberal bullies.

He’s not even the only reporter they’ve assaulted, just the one that hits the most social justice check boxes.

AntiFa terrorists have assaulted journalists 15 times since 2017
https://www.pacificpundit.com/2019/07/01/antifa-terrorists-have-assaulted-journalists-15-times-since-2017/


12 posted on 07/01/2019 8:39:39 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: panzerkamphwageneinz

it’;s not a shoe in, but when trump starts relating everything he’s done, and how little democrats always do- I think independents will stick with trump, and i think it was independents that helped bigly to elect trump=-

We’ll see- I hope America doesn’t go mental again and elect a another country destroying liberal like they did when they elected obama 2 terms-


13 posted on 07/01/2019 8:39:55 PM PDT by Bob434
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To: lasereye

The day before the 2016 election Rachel Bitecofer was interviewed by a Canadian radio show and she insinuated Hillary would win.

She’s a 50/50 hitter.


14 posted on 07/01/2019 8:40:44 PM PDT by CaptainK ('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
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To: lasereye

I don’t believe this is true at all and her prediction for 2018 was just a lucky happenstance at best.


15 posted on 07/01/2019 8:41:32 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Williams

Over 40 GOP House Reps retired. The only wave was an usual amount
of GOP retirements. That was the main reason the GOP lost the house.


16 posted on 07/01/2019 8:41:50 PM PDT by tennmountainman (Liberals Are Baby Killers)
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To: lasereye

How did this election model do predicting the Senate? How did it do the last presidential election? Is it new? If so, it is a sample
Size of exactly One election. If it is old, what is it’s rack record in other elections?

Hmmmm, so much left out of this story to push an “Oh Noes!!” narrative.


17 posted on 07/01/2019 8:41:59 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: lasereye

And if that happens, thanks to massive Demonrat voter fraud, you’ll have Civil War II.


18 posted on 07/01/2019 8:42:10 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: lasereye

Democrats are going to cheat like HELL, so not really expecting a major blowout for Trump IF at all.


19 posted on 07/01/2019 8:42:21 PM PDT by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists call 'em what you will they all have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Kickass Conservative

Agree.


20 posted on 07/01/2019 8:42:22 PM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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