Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
But a blue wave within GOP is a real thing.
“due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.”
Sound like a projection of the researcher bias.
‘scept Q has to deliver some scalps in about a year in order to win the House back
I'll bet it wasn't predicting that 16 months out.
I predicted D +40 here, repeatedly, and got called all kinds of names.
The difference in the Presidential race in 2020 will be that Trump has apparently decided to become a Republican.
He was successful to the extent that he was conducting a hostile takeover of the GOP. It was wonderful. He even considered building a wall. He discussed Secretary of State with Tulsi Gabbard. Remember him?
The only thing the people hate worse than Democrats are Republicans. As a conventional tax cutting, jobs exporting, open borders Republican, Trump has no chance.
Try 26.
I agree, the rats need juice, Hillary maybe, Michelle a good possibility. A former first lady young black and arrogant but able to play the innocent victim when evil trump attacks is just what the rats will order up. The media will adore her and become the medias darling perfect in every way, experienced beyond her years, trusting and elegant, “the first black women president” that’s all you need to know, watch
I agree, the rats need juice, Hillary maybe, Michelle a good possibility. A former first lady young black and arrogant but able to play the innocent victim when evil trump attacks is just what the rats will order up. The media will adore her and become the medias darling perfect in every way, experienced beyond her years, trusting and elegant, “the first black women president” that’s all you need to know, watch
Go ahead and vote against trump. Put your money where your comments are.
Dick Head Ryano is the reason.
Go away sit-to-pee.
They will be spun by the Fake News Media as massive revenge by Trumphitler against his political enemies. That could increase anti-Trump anger amongst those who have already been programmed to hate the Bad Orange Man, but it could also break more centrists away from the Rat Party. We've never seen anything like it, so it's hard to predict.
But we know how well computer models work, as the people in Miami and NYC know as they watch the ocean waters inundating their cities.
Yep.
Nov 17th? Election day is Nov 3, 2020
When I’m ready for another vehicle; the dealer better NOT try to foist LAST years ‘model’ on me!
Yep....... they only won 40 seats. They needed 42 for a wave /S
Trump will winagain as a result of events yet to happen
Yeah, it comes down to the squishy middle, again. Doesn’t matter if the deranged hate him even more than they did in 2016. 2020
may be decided by fraudulent votes.
Meanwhile...
The Wazzup Center for Private Policy's spokesperson Alfred E. Nueman says...
Yeah - BOTH?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.