About the Quinnipiac Poll showing Biden ahead of Trump by 13 points

Quinnipiac Poll ^ | Matthew Maschinot

[MMaschin]

This poll has been in the news everywhere, but no one seems to be pointing out how flawed (and obviously so) the sample is.

For polls to be accurate they modify their sample to match previous elections exit polling data. This poll attempts to match the 2016 national election poll data and at first glance appears to do so. Here is what 2016 national exit poll party identification looked like.



The above data is how people respond to the question "To what party do you most closely identify? Republican, Democrat, or Independent?". Notice those are the only three options, and respondents must choose one of those 3 responses.

For Quinnipiac to have a valid sample they need to have their sample match the exit poll data as close as possible. To accomplish this they ask a Party Identification question, and modify the sample to match exit poll data. Below is the Quinnipiac Poll's Party ID question -



Notice they added the option of "or what?"

In the 2016 exit polls 'progressives' and 'socialists' were not given an 'or what' option, they would have answered 'Democrat', they do not consider themselves "independent". Yet in the Quinnipiac poll they are given an option to proudly declare they true identification of "progressive" or "socialist". This means that in 2016 exit polling they would have been included in Party ID as 'Democrat' but in this poll they are included in 'Independent'.

The effect this has is dramatic, they are moving there most reliable Democrat votes from 2016 out of the Democrat sample and moving them into the Independent sample. If 8% of the sample answered 'progressive' or 'socialist' then moving them out of the Democrat sample allows that 8% to be replaced by 'Democrats'. It also means that 1/4 of the Independent sample that Trump won by 4% is now composed of 100% guaranteed Democrat votes. This can be seen in the Independent sample, in 2016 Trump won them by 4% yet in this poll Biden wins them by 30%!

Overall this poll is VERY good news for Trump, he's gained in both African American and Hispanic voters. If you look at the demographic responses, understanding that the sample is skewed heavily not only toward Democrats but towards their most alt-left voters, this poll is very good news.

[Bookshelf]

If you believe Quinnipiac I have some seafront property for sale in New Mexico that might interest you.

[VideoDoctor]

Sshhh! Don’t let the RATs know....

Let them keep thinking they’re winning until the final, bitter end

I agree 100%.

Let that Dimm parade keep heading in the WRONG direction. It only benefits Trump in the end.

[Pirate Ragnar]

LOL

[HamiltonJay]

The thing about polls like this is, they are so ridiculous on their face, you don’t even have to look at the internals to know they are a fustercluck.

When you do, you just get what you already know confirmed.

Simple reality is, short of a complete economic meltdown prior to November 2020, Trump is going to win re-election handily... He will outperform his 2016 numbers in every state. He will win every state he took in 2016, and will likely win most, if not every state he lost, but got 45% or higher in.

Any state he got 40% of more in in 2016 will be in play, and Trump, not being a Carl Rove type coward, will indeed fight for them and probably get a few of those as well.

There is ZERO path, short of an economic meltdown, for any D to win the White House in 2020....

That’s the reality. Anyone telling you otherwise, is either wholesale ignorant of how and why Trump won in 16, or flat out lying to you. Polls claiming and D is winning this thing is dubious from the start, and any one showing them up by 10 points if flat out intentionally lying to you.

[RoseofTexas]

Shhheeh..WE KNOW WHAT YOURE TRYING TO DO THERE!!...It’s all about putting enthusiasm in a boring old white man’s campaign....

[Maris Crane]

This is why it is NECESSARY to wait until numbers are in.

Then, you can tell HOW MANY BALLOTS, that you have prepared, will need to be counted.

GEEZ, don’t those pollsters know anything.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Forget it folks....Joe Biden is just following the 2.0 path used by Democrat, Criminal, failure, POTUS Loser, Hillary Clinton. The Polls are both “Fake News & a big joke to boot!!! Biden has no crowds of eager, cheering motivated, supporters, no energy, no stamina, no agenda....no, nothing...period. Bye, bye, Joe Biden!!! Trumpie wins 2020 POTUS in a historic landslide!!!

Catch the Trumpster in Orlando, Florida, Massive Political Rally next Tuesday evening, June 18, 2019 at the “Amway Center Arena in Orlando, Florida!!! RNC predicts 30,000 plus, Trump supporters will attend!!!

[xkaydet65]

This first was noticed in NYC mayor election in 1989. Dinkins vs Giuliani. By 9:15 every local channel had called the election for Dinkins at 55 to 45. All night they pooh poohed the actual numers saying exit polls clearly showed Dinkins votes woud increase as the night went on. Dinkins won by less than 51 49 and te local newsies were horrified that voters had lied to them.

[Cobra64]

Yawn. These polls are meaningless, yet the nail-biting, pearl-clutching Moonbats fear, with baited breath that Biden’s numbers are slipping. Who cares?

[arthurus]

Did not Reagan have similar polls before his second run?

[Gumdrop]

I have not believed these polls because most polls taken in the Black community show that blacks are moving toward the GOP and conservatism. Supposedly polls show Trump with approval ratings in the black community at about 20%. That is a lot higher than it was 3 years ago.

I have seen similar results with Latinos. If the Democrat candidates are losing some of their base, i.e. Blacks and Latinos, then exactly why would Biden or anyone else be ahead of Trump - especially with the good economy and the release of some Blacks from prison - prison reform????

[ZOOKER]

Who answers polls these days? Good question - gets to the root of why they are no longer accurate. Conservatives believe they are biased against them, so why participate? Liberals want to use polls to “drive” the actual vote their way, and the pollsters do too, so they’re over-represented. Sounds like 2016, doesn’t it? Libs so far ahead, and so sure...

[simpson96]

bookmark

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

Reagan was not polling well at all against Jimmy Carter in 1980.

I lived in Santa Barbara, Calif. back then, and the news media called the race in November of that year for Ronald Reagan at 3 o’clock in the afternoon, before my family even got a chance to go to our polling place!

I remember going to the polls along with my kinfolk with a big smile on my face. A woman poll worker was complaining to me about the media calling the race so early in the day, but I was so giddy and smiling I could barely even talk to her. Good times.

[arthurus]

In 1980 I was terribly pessimistic and then quite pleasantly surprised like throwing my hat up on the roof.

[KavMan]

Ed Rollins says John Glenn was ahead of Reagan 57-39

Mondale & Gary Hart also had the same margins on Reagan

VIDEO

[miserare]

No way! We all remember the phony fake polls from 2016. That was the year that the pollsters lost all
credibility.

[miserare]

The old saying: “Figures lie, and liars figure”!

[miserare]

I always lie to telephone pollsters. They are such frauds anyway. To them, I am forty years old, Hispanic/Jewish, and Socialist/Democrat. I am a supporter of Bernie Sanders. As if!...They are in a totally bogus business.

[mdmathis6]

It would be more telling to a presidential race to do polls of the rest of the country without California callers or weighting. That would give a better picture as to where the race is really going. You can give poll results both with and without California in the mix.