Reagan was not polling well at all against Jimmy Carter in 1980.
I lived in Santa Barbara, Calif. back then, and the news media called the race in November of that year for Ronald Reagan at 3 o’clock in the afternoon, before my family even got a chance to go to our polling place!
I remember going to the polls along with my kinfolk with a big smile on my face. A woman poll worker was complaining to me about the media calling the race so early in the day, but I was so giddy and smiling I could barely even talk to her. Good times.
In 1980 I was terribly pessimistic and then quite pleasantly surprised like throwing my hat up on the roof.