China's REAL growth rate

Enodo Economics recalculation of China’s first quarter real GDP growth was only +2% versus the +5.6% number officially reported by the central government.

The U.S. Federal Reserve recently warned that since China supposedly transitioned from a communist command economy in 1993, “Cooking the Books” by falsifying provincial level data continues to be a common problem due to a lack of “political independence.”

China’s official Xinhua News reported in mid-April that first quarter GDP growth jumped to 5.6 percent “largely propelled by the country's fiscal stimulus as well as energetic reform and opening-up. But Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics, who painstakingly has been recalculating China’s real (after-inflation) quarterly growth rate since 2004, reports that plunging Chinese exports are now threatening jobs and the economy.

China claims that real GDP has been very stable since Donald Trump became president, down only slightly from the 6 percent real GDP rate in January 2017. But Choyleva calculates that China was drastically understating its roaring 9.8 percent real GDP growth when President Trump was first inaugurated, and now it is drastically overstating its dismal +2 percent real GDP growth in the first three months of 2019.

Enodo calculates that China has seen virtually zero real growth of exports since President Trump took office and exports suffered a -2 percent decline in the first quarter. To offset stagnant exports since 2016, China has been spiking domestic consumption with what Enodo calls “old-style stimulus to prop up the economy.”

Fearing its first recession in 30 years, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced in March that the central government would stimulate the domestic consumption in 2019 by slashing $289 billion in taxes and fees. That was almost twice the 2018 stimulus of $185 billion.

The main problem of the Chinese economy is debt and overcapacity. Debt has blown up to 300 percent of GDP through the state-controlled banking system.

The financing went into building trains, roads, airports, apartments, shipyards - anything that can be built. And while some of the stuff is undoubtedly useful, a lot of it is not.

If it’s not useful or sustainable, it won’t generate the returns necessary to service said debt. This problem could have been nipped in the bud, but Chinese central planners wanted ever more steel mills and high-speed trains, and to push back the day of reckoning when most of the unprofitable companies would go bankrupt.

So, to keep the gravy train running, more debt had to be issued to build more stuff.

Now, the debt growth has also come to a halt, which is most likely the root cause of the massive slowdown. Official broad credit growth has slowed to around 10 percent, the lowest in a decade.

Within the broader debt system, the shadow banking system of trust loans, bankers acceptances, and wealth-management products is deep into negative growth territory.

SOURCE: SEEKING ALPHA

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237706-big-trouble-little-china

Varney covered a demonstration in Hong Kong that featured 1M, yes one million people, who do not like what China is doing in HK.

Seems they are taking dissidents right off the street and shipping them to China.

Makes me wonder if the help that Google gives China includes fascial recognition. That would be a shock.

Varney says it appears all is not well in China and trade talks might be influenced by what is happening in HK.

Bro take a xanax lol

You sound more like me today...that’s never good :)

Almost EVERY article on FR is posted to show us what the enemy (domestic or abroad) is up to.

Knowing the truth about China’s growth (or lack thereof) is incredibly important since it is an economic and military enemy.

Kinda shocked by your responses as your posts are almost 1000 times more level headed than mine usually :)

That growth translates into YUGE military spending, and we created that military by letting the Chinese export BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars of goods a year while I think we send over a few hundred million.

It has and continues to have DEVASTATING results. We need to know the real rate of growth for numerous reasons.

I Hate the govt there too.

That’s WHY it matters.

Your posts matter more than mine.

No one takes me seriously when I post :) Probably like right now lol

Yours actually hold weight.

Have a good one. :)

I DEFINITELY care about that.

And don’t see why 4 or more percentage growth is so impossible.

as long as Trump keeps slashing regulations and holding China’s throat to the wall.

ciao

My company does a LOT of business in China. Our number confirmed NEGATIVE GDP growth in China Q1 2019. For us, things were positive in the 1st half of 2018. It started declining in Q3 2018, was flat in Q4, and negative in the first quarter of this year.

Seems to have stabilized now...

LOL

Me too!!

I’m hoping what Trump is doing will affect that to some end.

But then being the notorious coward that I am, I get concerned that will lead them to military aggressiveness.

But the Lord hates a coward, so whatever may come, let it come.

Actually you should. Trump is putting economic pressure on China. That is very good.

It hits them in the pocket book. It makes it more difficult to spend the money they want on military equipment and foreign adventurism.

Further, if as I suspect economic hard times are ahead and jobs/incomes are lost to the Chinese, China will have it’s hands full dealing with angry citizens. And if those citizens get wind of the idea China is spending money on military adventurism instead of it’s own people, you’ll have a volatile situation.

That’s actually something we all should welcome > IMO.

Trump’s plan isn’t limited to economic matters. It’s also focused on winning a war before one breaks out.

If as some of us believe, China has been helping the NK and Iran, making it’s presence known in Africa and South America, it deserves what it gets from Trump’s plans.

Thanks so much for your support to this point... I personally apprecaite it...
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