Joe Biden Is the Front-Runner — Over Democrats, and Donald Trump

Get away from me,creepy cracker!

Sometimes??? How about 99.5% of the time!!!

Polls? POLLS??? This is 2019 and we don’t believe any stinkin’ polls!

It’s going to be hilarious laughing at those citing “polls” during this cycle.

On the plus side, he never let any ambassador die, and was probably out of the loop on Uranium 1. That’s about all I can think of. He may carry Delaware.

“We just had an election which had Nancy Pelosi retake the House by a wide margin, in a very high turnout midterm. Your confidence that Trump will be re-elected with certainty is misplaced.”

Hardly, and here is the simple reasons why.

Midterms are NOT national elections, you can “nationalize” a midterm, but it is still not remotely the same thing.

Your argument is based on the same silliness that the Trump can’t win nevertrumpers et al were putting forth back in the 16 primary campaign, when the reality was the only GUARANTEED winner among the GOP field was Trump.

First thing that needs to be understood, and is not by people making this argument, is the simple and obvious reality... TRUMP’s base is NOT the GOP base, not even close. Yes, Trump commands 90% support among the GOP voters, but that’s NOT what Trump’s base is... Trump’s base is well beyond the GOP base... Truly understand that, and you understand the comical nature of Trump losing in 2020.

Well then if Trump’s base is so big, why did the GOP lose the Midterms? If you simply thing Trump is the GOP, then this should not have happened... but Trump is not the GOP, and there lies the Rub.

States redistrict about once every decade, and they are redistricted by the party in power in those states, the district makeups are designed, to benefit the party in power and play to their base. The existing district makeups, even in RED states, are not configured for the Trump Coalition, they are configured for the old school GOPe strengths.... They are not set up to leverage Trump’s supporters.

This was a fact I personally overlooked in 18 myself, and I will NEVER make that mistake again.

Secondly, Trump is Trump, and while Dems made the election about Trump, Trump was NOT on the ballot in 18... His voters, especially his not traditional GOP voters, are not going to just show up to vote for someone with an R beside their name... They support TRUMP... and when you put up a bunch of the same old hacks, running the same old stupid messaging and campaigns, you aren’t going to get any of those voters to the polls for you.

Third, the TAX law changes had consequences, if you look at the gains made by the Dems in 18, where were they mostly? In already deep blue states, who knew they were going to get hammered by the FED no longer subsidizing their high tax states with Tax Deductions for local and state taxes. So, yes, California and NY voted out many GOP folks, because, when your local state taxes and mtg deductions add up to 20k or more, and you now can’t write that off, and only get a 10k cap... You just took a major hit to your pocketbook.. and you are going to show up and vote your anger.

and Finally, the GOP honestly didn’t even take the damned field in much of the country in the MidTerms. McConnell et all focused on some senate races, and largely just conceded nearly all of the map that Trump had shown them how to win... Didn’t put candidates worth a damn anywhere in the upper midwest for Senate, and didn’t spend a DIME to support them as well. They literally ceded the map, and focused on a handful of senate races.

Trump is in absolutely ZERO danger of losing in 2020, short of, as I stated a complete economic meltdown, like the one George Bush faced in 1992, and the likelihood of that is damned low.

The GOPe lost the midterms, not Trump. If you think Trump’s in ANY sort of danger of losing in 2020, please tell me which state you believe he won in 16, but will lose in 20? The ONLY state that is remotely a possibility might be MI.. and that’s a long shot. The Odds of Trump Flipping states like NH and MN are as likely more more likely than the D’s taking MI.

I’ve heard this chicken little silliness before... I was one of the first people here to not only predict Trump was going to win the nomination in 16, but would win white house, and that he would do it by marching right up through the rust belt, taking every state here except for IL and MN. I was told by never Trumpers, Cruz Backers, GOPe hacks, and the rest that Trump couldn’t win and I was crazy... When it was CLEARLY obvious Trump was aiming right up through this part of the country for the White House, from right out of the gate.

Economy is humming, better than its been for most of Trump’s base, than it has been in nearly 2 decades, you think they are not going to show up? not going to vote for him? Trump has done something that no other GOP person was able to do, got the Democrats to drop their mask where they pretend they are not the radical leftists that they are... Hell even Creepy Uncle Joe, who was supposed to be their more “moderate” “likable” guy, couldn’t even announce his presidency bid without calling Trump Hitler... You think that’s going to sell?

You are free to believe I don’t know what I am talking about, I am beyond comfortable in my confidence of a Trump victory in 2020.. Not only a victory, but a re-election that will be by the largest margin since Reagan. No it won’t be a 49 to 1 win, but it will be the largest EC re-election since 1984, no doubt about it.

Folks telling you otherwise, are just either ignorant, or fear mongering, to keep your eyeballs glued to their click bait.

I live up here, Hillary never had a shot here... and Trump has beyond delivered here... Trump’s victory here isn’t measured by how FEW he got more than Hillary, Trumps Victory here is measured by HOW MANY MORE VOTES HE GOT HERE THAN ANY REPUBLICAN BEFORE...

Folks making the argument you are, just don’t grasp the upper mid west at all. Trump not only won here, but he has won by attracting more votes than any Republican in History has in these states, EVERY... and he did that agains ta backdrop of no political record.

In the past 2 years he has DELIVERED big time to this region of the country, and he will win in 2020 by larger margins than those who keep hocking this swill can imagine.

You seem to be obsessed with he only won by x... turn your perspective and you will see, Trump just didn’t fluke a few extra votes in a few states.... That argument shows a complete lack of understanding of exactly how Trump won, why Trump won, and who Trump’s base is, and why they support him and why they will be there in even greater numbers in 2020.

He must be taken seriously. Because he could very well win.

Absolutely. They will soon say: He is "the guy who can finally bring some down to earth common sense to this messiness of all the fighting and arguing. It's been so bad under Trump, all this arguing and investigating and testifying. Biden will calm that stuff down again."

The NY Yankee cable subscription ad used to say "The players whose names you know. The team that will be there in the post season." The uninformed voter knows Biden and thinks of him as the guy who will be there when Warren and Kamala are pushed aside.

Sweet delusions, baby, sweet delusions.....Baaaby!

Yes, Mr past his prime, reasonable Democrat, just called Trump Hitler in his speech announcing his presidential bid... but he’s going to moderate the D party? Be serious folks.

Yes, Biden will do better than the rest of the clown car, but he has ZERO shot at winning.

Trump ran roughshod over the entire GOP field without batting an Eye, and then took out the ordained queen, who had spent more than a decade making sure she had it in the bank... But somehow creepy old uncle joe, who couldn’t win his party’s nomination back in his prime, is going to beat a sitting president, presiding over a great economy? Do you rally hear yourselves.

Here are the facts, and all the rest of this is chicken little nonsense, and simply there to keep you anxious and tuned in to the bread and circuses for the next 18 months.

UNLESS THE ECONOMY COMPLETELY COLLAPSES, THERE IS NOT A CHANCE IN HELL ANY DEMOCRAT CAN WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2020... PERIOD..

In the past ~120 years, there have been exactly 4 sitting presidents who failed to win a second term, and 3 of those 4 lost because of the economy... PERIOD.

The reality is this, the top of the Dem ticket will either be a has been past his prime guy doing it out of loyalty to his party (knowing in reality he can’t win, but will keep up appearances to keep the base engaged so that they don’t stay home and turn the Presidential route into a route up and down the ticket)... Like a Joe Biden, or it will be some firebrand who is too foolish to realize they can’t win.

Joe Biden is clearly playing that role in the 2020 race, the only real question is, which, if any of the firebrands will take him out.

However it WON’T MATTER who the candidate is, Trump will win, and win big in 2020. The serious D candidates are simply running now to build up a national network and donor contacts for a 2024 run... The serious folks know its a lost cause this time and don’t want the millstone around their neck in 2024. So the real players will stick around for a bit then disappear, and you’ll be left with Biden (or if he stumbles they will find someone else to play that role) and someone else too stupid to know even if they get the nomination, they have ZERO shot at winning.

And to those that believe otherwise, Tell me, which states do you see Trump losing in 2020 that he won in 2016... Because I live in the upper midwest, and I am telling you, Trump is going to win here far bigger than he did in 2016, unless the economy completely tanks in the next 18 months.

Well stated.

The interest rate changes designed to sink the economy for Trump, along with deliberate actions by Soros and associates and Chinese could cause a decline. How much? Not known. It seems like the US is bigger than Soros and the Chicom operatives, though.

Our total economy may be too big to ruin.

Notice they kept quoting “It’s the economy, stupid” during Bush, and now silent as economy soars under Trump. Typical.

Except for illegals and vote harvesting our true American citizens may vote for Trump and put him over the top.

Jeb was the front runner as well, how did that turn out? If the Democrats are serious, Biden will get ripped to shreds in the primaries, unless it was rigged like it was for Hillary. 20% of Bernie supporters said they will vote for Trump if Bernie loses.

[I live up here, Hillary never had a shot here

You seem to be obsessed with he only won by x... turn your perspective and you will see, Trump just didn’t fluke a few extra votes in a few states.... That argument shows a complete lack of understanding of exactly how Trump won, why Trump won, and who Trump’s base is, and why they support him and why they will be there in even greater numbers in 2020.]

And yet he won by 0.5% in MI, PA and WI. What you call “obsession” is usually called a combo of empiricism coupled with logic. Your intuition that Trump was always going to win in those states is belied by the 0.5% margin. The way I look at it, a 10% margin is a sure thing. A 0.5% margin - not so much.

No it didn’t bely the margin, your obsession with the margin is like a bookie playing the over under.

Again, the fact you seem obsessed with the margin of the win, rather than the reality of what happened to create that win. You need to flip your perspective and you will realize your hand wringing is foolish.

Trump aimed his spear right up here to the rust belt right out of the gate, he did it with his policies on Immigration and trade, and in the process got more votes than any other Republican in history in these states.

If anything the democratic policies on these matters are even more extreme and out of touch with the voters here than they were in 16.. and Trump is no longer the unknown boogie man, that the DNC and Hillary painted him as, trying desperately to hold on.

In this part of the country the very voters who turned out for Trump in 16, have seen big time return on their votes, and their more skeptical neighbors have as well... Trumps base is NOT the GOP Base... and Trump is in NO danger of losing a single state he won in 2016.

Your argument only holds water if you believe, Hillary Lost the election... because if you believe that, then hey a small margin can be made up by a better candidate or message... But Hillary didn’t LOSE here, Trump WON.

You are welcome to keep hand wringing and chicken littleing all you like, but short of a major economic downturn, Trump is winning next fall by far better margins across the nation than he did in 16.

If you refuse to see it, that’s your choice.

All I can say is, if you think Trumps support in the Upper Midwest is going to decline on re-election and that democratic support is somehow going to swell, particularly in states that voted for Trump... You have some major blinders on.

You clearly don’t live in the upper midwest, and have no understanding of just exactly what and how Trump won. You also seem to not understand the very real motivations around US politics in general. No sitting president has lost re-election in an economic boom... hell 1 termers have only happened 4 times in the last ~120 years and 3 of them purely lost due to the economy.

If the economy tanks, before next November, then there is a reason for concern, short of that, there is absolutely ZERO chance the Democrats are taking the white house. But enjoy your hand wringing.

[You are welcome to keep hand wringing and chicken littleing all you like, but short of a major economic downturn, Trump is winning next fall by far better margins across the nation than he did in 16.]

We’ve each said our piece. I think 2020 will be a squeaker; you think it will be a landslide. We’ll see how things turn out come Election Day.