Posted on 03/01/2019 8:42:33 AM PST by xzins
The long-awaited first read on Q4 GDP has just come out, with results better than expected: +2.6%, whereas analysts had been pivoting right around that 2.0% figure ahead of the release. The historically strong Q3 results were revised upward in its third and final headline: 3.5%.
Even though it’s too early to take the long view of 2018 GDP as a whole, this 2.6% number joins the 2.2%, 4.2% and now 3.5% from the previous quarter to put preliminary GDP at 3.125%, or above 3% for the first time since prior to the Great Recession a decade ago.
That this initial Q4 read is well ahead of analysts’ estimates on the first read is interesting when we see how the numbers break down: the Consumer was actually slightly below estimates of 3% to 2.8%, though the Price Index overall wound up 10 basis points hotter. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — stripping out various near-term volatility, thus creating what we consider a “core” number — reached +1.7%.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
The math says
1 = 2.2
2 = 4.2
3 = 3.5
4 = 2.6
Avg = 3.125
Liberals have the same math that we do, so it can only be a lie.
4% GDP growth was normal until the globalist(Bushites and GOPe Free Traitors™) took over. The 1990’s were big growth due to technology changes and huge productivity growth, then Bush II went whole hog global.
Good math!
What is considering at least a GOOD pace?
3?
I honestly don’t know.
Does SS keep pace with the GDP?
That’s gonna cost us next year.
I know mom’s SS went up 2 percent this year.
As with everything against Trump, they report fake news first to get the story out there, and then it’s difficult to correct the thought that people already have in their minds.
The ‘90s were a continuation of the Reagan bull market.
President NWO presided over that decline (leaving out the Reagan assassination attempt for a moment). Little did most people suspect what Curious George Scherf was really up to.
The BEA {Bureau of Economic Analysis} stated the the GDP number for 2018 was 2.9%, even after showing on it's own reports quarterly GDP growth of 2.2, 4.2, 3.5 and 2.6 which to me shows growth of over 3.1% for the year.
I don't know what to make of these conflicting reports...fake news?
unexpected
The mob at Jeckel Island sent this nation into ruin and the rest of the world is following suit. Meeting in the cold of the night, in the wilderness of that South Carolina island, away from the nation’s citizens, sending the financial health of this nation into the toilet. We should dig up their rotting corpses and hang them for treason against the Republic.
My miss-speak. It was Jekyll Island off GEORGIA, NOT South Carolina.
2.6 is still a good quarter. Beats most of Obama’s quarters with 0.3, 0.5, and 1.4 being a good first or last quarter for his term. Though it is concerning that we now get excited of anything over 2.0 when a couple decades ago we regularly hit 4.5-5.0 or more.
One more thing that concerns is the fact that Europe and China are slowing down. China is goosing it’s numbers, but I don’t hardly believe them. They can’t keep doing it as debt is going over 350% soon. If Europe goes down it will ding our exports because they buy much more from us than China does...last year the U.S. exported $500 billion to Europe while we exported $130 billion to China. This could ding our GDP # by a substantial margin, thus slowing everything else down too.
It’s just a shame that we got stuck with 8 years of Obama’s policies and sluggishness and we only got Trump at the tail end of a 10 year “recovery.” We may have run out of tarmac before the business cycle goes down again. That’s my biggest concern. Now I understand why all economists worry constantly.
The massive trade deficit is responsible for the decline in gdp. I believe I’ve read that in our time we would be >1% higher in gdp if we made the trade deficit reasonable. Not only does it have a negative outflow, but it costs jobs.
If we could halfway fix it, we would improve. How? The market is elastic. Buy those same goods from other Asian & developing countries with whom we do have a sane trade deal. To force that along, put big tariffs on China.
Yes the deficit cuts the GDP. However, if our exports decline even more, it cuts into the GDP even more. It’s a lose-lose situation. Without what exports we have to Europe, the GDP number would drop by a 0.5% at least.
There are several well known reasons for the deficit and they are complicated. Our trade deficits are hard to correct because of market distortions. Our society doesn’t save much and consumes more than it produces, thus the intake. Our country is the only LARGE country that is also very wealthy, which means much of our people can afford expensive imports like Mercedes cars (There are 330,000,000 people in the US and 80,000,000 in Germany and Americans are 1/3 richer per head). These two reasons are important causes but by far the biggest two reasons are the US government’s policy of keeping the value of the dollar high. This makes our products more expensive a lot of the time and when you add shipping costs over two gigantic oceans to reach most of the world’s people, it’s just too much for our companies to bother with. Most of our companies just manufacture in the country they operate in and only 10% of US companies actually export. And fully 25% of our exports come from ONE company-Boeing. The other big reason is the dollar’s status as the global currency. This, plus the petrodollar, keeps our currency elevated in the global money market and won’t let it adjust normally. While other countries see their currencies “float” normally, ours does not. This is why we can continue to sustain such high trade deficits without some sort of normal correction. It’s a complicated picture.
Since labor on durable goods and services is around 7% every $Billion in trade deficit represents $70 Million in lost US wages. So a $900B annual trade equates to $63B in lost US wages.
Such a great conversation
The issue for me is how I’ve been trained: when a problem is identified, what are potential solutions that BENEFIT your team.
And isn’t each quarterly growth rate built upon the previous quarter?
Thank you for clearly explaining this.
And to any of you lefty lurkers, the retail apocalypse started long before President Trump took office and resulted largely from online sales.
By way of contrast, the 4th Quarter results were just released for the Canadian economy. A mere 0.1%. Borderline recession.
One thing I forgot to mention is that buying up US debt, China for example accumulates dollars. This keeps their currency low relative to the dollar, which helps their exporters.
I believe so yes.
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