Democrats hold 7 point advantage ahead of midterms as Trump's base comes back home: NBC-WSJ poll

CNBC ^ | 11/03/2018 | John Harwood

[SeekAndFind]

President Donald Trump's late campaign blitz targeting immigrants has rallied the Republican base of white working-class voters, helping to curb the Democratic advantage heading into Tuesday's midterm elections for Congress.

The election-eve NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading by seven percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. That's down from a nine-percentage point lead last month.

That slightly narrowing reflects rising interest in the election from the foundation of Trump's support: White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas. Most noteworthy for a mid-term election, the 2018 campaign has seized the attention of voters at presidential-campaign levels — and Trump has helped Republicans wipe out the advantage Democrats held earlier in the campaign.

"There has been some method to his madness," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the NBC/WSJ survey with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. "The base is coming home."

The results presage the possibility of a split verdict on Tuesday. With many battleground House races taking place in more affluent suburbs, the unusual Trump-era advantage Democrats continue to maintain among college-educated whites — especially women — represent a strong sign for their prospects of gaining or exceeding the 23-seat gain they need to recapture the majority.

But in the less-populated, more conservative states that will decide control of the Senate, the late campaign trend brightens Republican prospects. Needing a two-seat gain to recapture a majority, Democrats must defend incumbents in states such as Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota where the Trump base looms larger.

"Republicans have clearly made progress," McInturff said. One key indicator: the Democratic edge among independent voters has dipped to nine percentage points from 14 percent last month, reflecting fresh uncertainty among less-affluent white men.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Lot’s of early voting this time around. Mom will be working the 6am-2pm shift at the polls. Beau and I always go to vote early morning, then go out for breakfast. Tradition!

I hope we can find our way through the throngs of voters; our polling place has to handle all 380 of us that day, LOL!

God Bless The Heartland! MAGA! :)

Actually, we who live in The Heartland never STOPPED Making America Great - no mater what either Leftist Coast TRIES to tell you!

We now FINALLY have a VOICE again due to President Trump! :)

[jetson]

I haven’t seen or heard much said about the elections accept for TV. No one is talking about it. Makes me think the socialist are feeling a bit low about the elections.

[nicollo]

It's also a psychological technique designed to peel off any last minute, undecided, voters who do not identify with these traits.

Excellent point. It's also worth nothing that this is a fundamental Trump M.O. -- throw a claim out there that requires the negative to adopt a ludicrous position.

For example, his talk the other day about how "women want security" -- the MSM ridiculed him for it, but in doing so they were essentially claiming that "women do not want security," which is obviously false.

[Lean-Right]

“White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas.”

So, older white men in big cities, and
urban areas are more educated and
affluent?

Here’s what they really meant to say;
“They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

[Deplorable American1776]

I don’t believe polls. The poll I believe in will be November 6th...

[Deplorable American1776]

I don’t believe polls. The poll I believe in will be November 6th...

[Morpheus2009]

How much of the nationwide do you think if focused in New York and California?

[MayflowerMadam]

On Levin’s TV show last night, he and pollster McLaughlin seemed to have the belief that the GOP voters won’t “come out” enough to give us the win. I may have interpreted it all wrong, but that was my impression. As for myself, I think it’s a broken-glass election for us.

[MayflowerMadam]

“I lived in California then, and the race was called for Reagan on election day at 3:00 PM Pacific time.”

I remember that day so well. We lived in Hawaii then, and my sister called me at work to say Reagan had won. I believe I hadn’t even gone to lunch yet. Remember that, B77?