Posted on 11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT by 11th_VA
... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011.
To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a candidate like Mr. Trump (he won Boyle County with 62 percent of the vote). The results are shown here:
...The results shown in the graph demonstrate a clear trend. While our exit poll was almost spot-on in the 2011 election, it showed Republicans doing increasingly poor in our exit poll compared to actual results and Democrats doing increasingly better over five years of elections. In 2016, our exit poll showed Donald Trump winning 52.6 percent of Boyle County voters (he actually won 62.1 percent) and Hillary Clinton winning 47.4 percent (she actually won 33 percent)...
...As the polling industry has increasingly come to be perceived as part of the “elite establishment” by many populist conservatives, a growing proportion of the Republican electorate may simply be refusing to participate in public opinion polls. This, in turn, leads to their voting preferences being underestimated in public opinion surveys. Thus, many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016 simply because many Trump voters told pollsters to take a hike...
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
Every time a pollster calls, I lie and tell them I vote straight ticket democrat.
My grandfather would always do something similar.
This kind I always take and always lie. The policy polls, a series of rigged questions followed by prechosen bad answers, I refuse to participate in.
I mentioned to somebody on another thread just the other day that Ive been told some really dumb reasons. 96 had the two most ridiculous Ive personally heard. "I cant vote for Dole because when I hear his name I think of pineapples," and "I cant vote for him because I don't want to have a president that people call "Flipper"."
Between those types and the best hair voters, and the clean black guy voters, etc, I don't think there are many morons left to be the "winning team" voters.
I hang up on them. I say nothing, just hang up.
oh crap they’re on to us
We should all wear t-shirts to the polls that say "SURPRISE!" in big red letters. :^)
I used to talk to pollsters and tell them the truth, but I have stopped talking to them in recent years.
I’d still crawl over broken glass to vote though.
I always tell them I voted straight dem. So fun to see their faces glow with hope and change.
I too don’t answer phone calls if I don’t know the number. Keeps the blood pressure down by not talking to a machine, the IRS scammers or the CSR from Bombay or Havana.
We could destroy the polling industry by starting a “Lie to the pollsters” movement. Render the data completely useless.
Y’all missed the point of the article.
The Left has thrown in the towel and making excuses again...not that they have a bad product, it again is just a bunch of excuses .
This is a great thing.
My worry is they can use the polls in close races to support a stolen race through voter fraud. Dem bias, failure to clean up voter rolls=voter fraud. How many of us trust the count reflects 1 vote for 1 legal, live, registered voter?
Each bar in the graph shows the difference between our exit polling results and the actual results in Boyle County, Kentucky for the top office on the ballot. For example, in the 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election our exit poll showed Republican David Williams winning 29.5 percent of the vote among Boyle County voters. In reality, he won 29.1 percent, meaning that our exit poll overestimated his level of support by 0.4 percent. In contrast, our exit poll underestimated Democrat Steve Beshear’s support in Boyle County by 2.4 percent.
It may be wishful thinking on my part but I think the Bradley effect will be significant in this election.
I have one of those, too. Best investment I have made lately. I recommend one for everyone.
A poll is only as good if people actually see it to vote on.
I simply say, “I don’t participate in polls.”. I used to, but we need to make polling so erroneous and irrelevant that they’ll just stop and quit trying to influence elections.
A pollster on Fox yesterday said that Rats are much more likely to participate in polls than GOPs. He also said thay when GOP (Trump voters) do participate they’re more honest when it’s a robo call — punch in a number — than if speaking to a person.
I have a simple answering machine.
I figure if a call is important; the caller will leave a message.
So far, my number of calls is WAY more than any messages left other than “CLICK”.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.