Posted on 11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT by 11th_VA
... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011.
To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a candidate like Mr. Trump (he won Boyle County with 62 percent of the vote). The results are shown here:
...The results shown in the graph demonstrate a clear trend. While our exit poll was almost spot-on in the 2011 election, it showed Republicans doing increasingly poor in our exit poll compared to actual results and Democrats doing increasingly better over five years of elections. In 2016, our exit poll showed Donald Trump winning 52.6 percent of Boyle County voters (he actually won 62.1 percent) and Hillary Clinton winning 47.4 percent (she actually won 33 percent)...
...As the polling industry has increasingly come to be perceived as part of the elite establishment by many populist conservatives, a growing proportion of the Republican electorate may simply be refusing to participate in public opinion polls. This, in turn, leads to their voting preferences being underestimated in public opinion surveys. Thus, many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016 simply because many Trump voters told pollsters to take a hike...
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
verb: poll; 3rd person present: polls; past tense: polled; past participle: polled; gerund or present participle: polling
2nd meaning:
2. cut the horns off (an animal, especially a young cow).
Now it makes sense...
Interesting post. And I agree that the poles are biased against Republican candidates. And there is no reason to not believe his Exit Polling Data.
But the anti-GOP bias cannot be caused by a reluctance of Republicans to answer pollsters. The reason: pollsters use models of the electorate. They have to have X Dems, Y GOP, Z Independents, ZZ Libertariians and ZZZ Other. Or something like that.
Its the models that hold the bias. They overstate the Dem proportion of the voting public so the Garbage In, Garbage Out Rule applies.
I think this going to be a bad year for the Pollsters. OTOH Im looking forward to reading what Nate Silver has to say Wednesday morning.
The last call I got for a poll I asked how much it paid.
The woman said it didn’t pay anything.
I asked if she was being paid.
She said yes.
I said I would work for the same amount.
She hung up.
He's going to say the same thing he said in 2016 - we got the popular vote correct, but at the district and state level we didn't get the distribution correct - translation: In Red areas, they don't see the undertow...
I assume these downward trends have continued.
It’s a difference of personality. Libtards enjoy enlightening us rubes with their retarded opinions, so they are eager to answer every poll and survey they can get to, usually more than once (as I said, it’s a personality thing). Conservatives, on the other hand, have better things to do - and it’s nobody’s business what we think anyway.
I don’t answer the phone unless I know the number, so I avoid phone polls. And I steer clear of people asking questions on the street. If I were to be exit polled I would lie - yep, voted for every rat on the ballot. None of their dang business.
Quinippiac called me last week. MY call block program alerted me as to whom it was calling. I didn’t answer because I don’t want to give them my opinion. I want to keep them clueless. And they are now blocked from calling again. Polls are for strippers and clueless DimocRATS.
This is stupid because the mostly fake bad polling depresses the right and hurts turn out somewhat. This is unnecessary stressful and short sighted.
Goofing the polls is stupid because the sheeple think they are real and want to go with a winner. They have no brains and you are making it easier for them to vote Demoncat.
The brainless middle “independents” are influenced by the polls and will go with the crowd. So I feel like I should answer the polls.
I just literally laughed out loud reading that. Thanks. :-)
Except of course that the hard line constitutionalists are also independent. But they aren’t swayed by polling anyway.
Except of course that the hard line constitutionalists are also independent. But they aren’t swayed by polling anyway.
Mostly something similar.
Early vote is R+. All the polls are D+. Which of them is accurate?
If the polls undercount Republicans, theyre as credible as the famous 1936 Literary Digest poll.
Theyre not random polls and they will get the election result wrong.
The people in the polling industry have learned nothing from 2016. None of them foresaw the Trump win.
Voters have a way of confounding the conventional wisdom.
The middle “independents” are mostly stupid politically. Very few have read the USC. The polls sway them. It’s a beauty contest.
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