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Nate Silver: 85% chance Dems win the House
Five Thirty Eight ^
| 10/23/2018
| Nate Silver
Posted on 10/29/2018 3:14:03 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; 538; bluewave; election; midterms; natesilver; postedseveraltimes
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Nate keeps UPPING the chance of a Dem house. With a plausible scenario of Dems +40 to +50 House seats.
Also, he has McCaskill favored in Missouri, Donnelly a 2-1 favorite, Kyrsten Sinema a strong favorite, Menendez a bigger favorite than Kevin Cramer in North Dakota who has been up double digits.
To: St. Louis Conservative
To: St. Louis Conservative
3
posted on
10/29/2018 3:18:01 PM PDT
by
Boogieman
To: St. Louis Conservative
Yo Nate...2016 ya had Hilda at 71.4%
4
posted on
10/29/2018 3:18:14 PM PDT
by
Doogle
(( USAF.68-73....8th TFW Ubon Thailand....never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
To: St. Louis Conservative
Why not one hundred percent, Nat?
5
posted on
10/29/2018 3:18:57 PM PDT
by
E. Pluribus Unum
(Democracy dies when Democrats refuse to accept the result of a democratic election they didn't win.)
To: St. Louis Conservative
[he has.....Kyrsten Sinema a strong favorite]
Oh my......
Guess he keeps trying to make things go his way. Or the way of his masters.
6
posted on
10/29/2018 3:20:05 PM PDT
by
SaveFerris
(Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
To: St. Louis Conservative
7
posted on
10/29/2018 3:21:50 PM PDT
by
ohiobushman
(Donald J. Trump for POTUS 2020)
To: St. Louis Conservative
does not equal 100% he has stated. Too many see a number and read 100%
8
posted on
10/29/2018 3:22:07 PM PDT
by
SMGFan
( .)
To: Boogieman
9
posted on
10/29/2018 3:22:29 PM PDT
by
SMGFan
( .)
To: St. Louis Conservative
Is Nate Silver doing polling for The Onion now? Just sayin.
10
posted on
10/29/2018 3:23:49 PM PDT
by
fatman6502002
((The Team The Team The Team - Bo Schembechler circa 1969))
To: St. Louis Conservative
It seems to me that John Hanoi Kerry was favored to win and the media made up some numbers that they said he was ahead which caused about 35,000 GOP voters to stay home. The demonicRATS are desperate.
11
posted on
10/29/2018 3:24:25 PM PDT
by
mountainlion
(Live well for those that did not make it back.)
To: E. Pluribus Unum
Only 100% is that Democrats will hold California Senate seat next month.
12
posted on
10/29/2018 3:24:36 PM PDT
by
SMGFan
( .)
To: St. Louis Conservative
and if they do they’ll tear it down
To: St. Louis Conservative
Remember Election night 2016.
Remember how “Trump will NEVER be President...”
Oh, wait...
To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed
Can’t count on defying the polls and the odds every time. Trump was a 1 in a million shot.
To: St. Louis Conservative
Is Nate Silver taking bets?
16
posted on
10/29/2018 3:32:15 PM PDT
by
MeganC
(There is nothing feminine about feminism.)
To: mountainlion
Don’t forget about how Al Gore was supposed to win as well. When he lost the GWB the idiot the Democrats lost their frickin’ minds.
17
posted on
10/29/2018 3:34:02 PM PDT
by
WMarshal
(An Ugly American - who now wants to break things in other lands)
To: St. Louis Conservative
Yet....almost every contested US Senate seat is moving toward the GOP?
To: St. Louis Conservative
Nate’s methodology requires accurate polls.
To: Doogle
Yo Nate...2016 ya had Hilda at 71.4%At 28.6%, he gave Trump a far higher possibility of winning than every other pollster. He was also the only one who predicted that Trump could win the electoral college without winning the popular vote.
He is also currently predicting an 82.3% chance that Republicans keep the Senate.
So no, I wouldn't panic, but I would put more stock in Nate Silver than in a lot of other pundits.
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