The Real Blue Wave Could Come in the States

The Cook Political Report ^ | October 9, 2018 | Charles E. Cook

[The Pack Knight]

There are a lot of great political stories out there right now, so it’s easy to miss that the biggest one might be happening below the federal level.

Nationally, what appears to be the blue Democratic tidal wave is arguably really a pink wave, with women voters, donors, and candidates driving much of the movement in favor of Democrats. We are seeing eye-popping gender gaps, with the Republican edge among men dwarfed by the Democratic advantage among women. In the mid-September NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll, men narrowly favored Republicans in preference for control of the House, 47 to 44 percent, but women preferred a Democratic majority by a wide margin: 58 to 33 percent. The Pew Research Center poll showed very similar results on their generic-ballot test, with men going Republican by 3 points, 48 to 45 percent,and women for Democrats by 23 points, 58 to 35 percent.

The Pew Research Center released on Wednesday its final tally of primary votes cast this year. Republican turnout was up 27 percent over 2014, when 1.2 million more Republicans than Democrats cast ballots in primaries. But Democratic turnout ended up 91 percent higher this year than 2014, with 2.9 million more Democrats than Republicans voting this time around. This is an important metric in gauging how much interest and enthusiasm in each party and has been a useful thing to look at in the past.

At the same time, polling shows the intensity and enthusiasm among Republican voters began to increase during September, partially closing the gap with Democrats on that measure. Some of this was natural and expected—Republican voters ‘coming home’—but a piece of it was undoubtedly a combination of the attention on Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation fight. A third element is that many Republican voters are now finally perceiving that there is no red wave and that their congressional majorities really are in danger.

This is all part of a broad theme that this year, the House, governor, and state legislature fights are taking place on one battlefield, while the U.S. Senate is being fought over on another. The House looks very likely to flip into Democratic hands, most likely a net gain for Democrats of between 25 and 45 seats, more than the 23 needed to tip the majority. But the Senate fight is mostly being fought in higher-elevation states that are mostly, if not entirely out of reach for a Democratic wave.

I expect net gains for Democrats in governorships of between six and a dozen, and a pickup for Democrats of between 400 and 650 state legislative seats, more than the average midterm loss of 375 seats for the party in the White House. These state elections are the most under-reported story in politics, with control of chambers likely tipping from Republicans to Democrats. Three-quarters of the governorships and four-fifths of the state legislative seats are up in these midterm cycles. Remember that with the inability or unwillingness of Washington to deal with so many problems, the resulting vacuum has given states considerably more power on many fronts. Then consider the massive gains on the state level for Republicans during the eight years of the Obama presidency, and how much of that ground could slip away.

Republicans now hold 33 governorships to just 16 for Democrats (plus one independent in Alaska). The GOP has 26 governorships up this year, Democrats only have nine. Republicans have 12 open governorships, Democrats only four. Republicans have 11 governorships that The Cook Political Report rates as Toss-Up or worse for the GOP, Democrats have one. The governorship of Illinois looks gone for Republicans, Michigan looks like it is slipping away from the GOP, while Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin look headed in a similar direction.

Republicans control both the state Senate and House chambers in 25 states, Democrats hold both bodies in just seven states, 17 are split (plus Nebraska is both unicameral and non-partisan). The Republican dominance on the state level, much of it gained in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, has resulted in very conservative policy changes on issues ranging from abortion, to Medicaid expansion (or contraction), to voting access. Given that the U.S. Senate and House are likely to be closely divided no matter what happens in November and President Trump will still wield a veto pen, it is in the state capitols that major policy changes could occur in 2019 and 2020, not in Washington.

To say that Republicans are facing a challenging year in the states is an understatement; one prominent Republican pollster this week privately referred to the state legislative election scene as a “killing field” for Republicans. According to Tim Storey of the National Conference of State Legislatures, a dozen state legislative chambers are toss-ups, eight currently controlled by the GOP, three at least theoretically controlled by Democrats. The Republican-controlled House and Senate chambers are toss-ups in Arizona and New Hampshire, as are their Senates in Colorado, Maine, and Wisconsin, as well as the Alaskan House.

While technically, Democrats have a majority in the New York Senate, the chamber is effectively run by a GOP-controlled coalition, and it too is a toss-up. Democrats have just two chambers in such a position, the Nevada and Washington state Senates. In Connecticut, the battle over the tied Senate is a toss-up as well. But if the wave is big enough, according to Storey, the Florida Senate, both the House and Senate in Iowa, and the House chambers in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania also come into play. Republicans also have toss-up chambers in Alaska, both the House and Senate in Arizona, the Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin Senates.

Clashes over school funding and other state spending issues even ruby-red Republican states like Kansas and Oklahoma have shaken up the politics in many states. Anything that is done by statute can be undone in the same way, we could see the policy direction in many states changing substantially, if not completely reversing direction.

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 5, 2018

[FirstFlaBn]

I remember reading that the western novelist Zane Gray got paid a nickel a word after he established his broad appeal (a lot of money way back when).

These pundits might as well have the same deal. They rarely acknowledge their errors and never change their ways.

It’s like getting full credit for your homework as long as you turn in something, anything.

[ncalburt]

Larry was caught working secretly for the Dem candidate .
He was still running around hiding that fact and posing as a unbiased pollster .

Cook is just as big fraud .
Cook is even sneakier and more devious than Larry S .

[jmaroneps37]

Yes it COULD but alas it won’t Charlie. Go away and come up with something else.

[OldMissileer]

Well if l am going by what it looks like here in Michigan the Rats are a lock for Governor and Senator. Trump carried Michigan just barely but he did and the state is doing pretty well under GOP control but according to every poll the Rats have a lock , not even close.

I was born and raised in Michigan and will be retiring there soon.

It has amazed me how Democrat governors trash the state then the Republican Govs will rebuild only to have the citizens elect another Dem who trashes the state again.

[Deplorable American1776]

Cook Political Report is fiction...Florida Senate is lost??

[SunkenCiv]

Partisan Media Shills update.

[centurion316]

Cook’s stock in trade is Congressional elections and lower. This is because he tracks precinct returns and has done this for over 50 years. He definitely got the President election wrong in 2016, but so did everyone else, too. Take a look at his results for the House. He correctly called all House seats rated leaning and above. He didn’t make a call in toss up races. Chart at here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016
Remember that the Dems gained 6 seats in the House in 2016.

I learned not to bet with him years ago and won’t do it this year. The article is Oct 5, my guess that his numbers are lower for GOP losses today. My guess is 12 - 15 seats in the House flipping to the Dems, Charlie will probably have about twice as many. The current trends are encouraging, I think that the Dems have seen their high water mark.

[IrishBrigade]

‘Well if l am going by what it looks like here in Michigan the Rats are a lock for Governor and Senator.’

same in Pennsylvania; Wolf is clobbering Wagner in the gubernatorial, and Casey is toying with Barletta...

[IrishBrigade]

‘People keep banking on Trump’s win as being the paradigm for all elections now. It isn’t.’

that’s true; but then no election can stand as a predictive model for future elections...Americans like change too much...

[redgolum]

The recent confirmation hearing hurt the GOP. It also hurt the Dems.

[fortheDeclaration]

Sorry to hear that, still a month to go, a lot can happen.

Just vote and see what happens.

[fortheDeclaration]

No one is banking on anything, Trump is getting the base motivated, along with the Democrats and their despicable behavior. Nothing ‘kneejerk about it’

[fortheDeclaration]

Democrats always look good at the beginning of Oct. GOP begins to spend money in the middle of Oct.

[fortheDeclaration]

If blacks don’t turn out in Phil. things could turn out quite differently.

[The Pack Knight]

The Republican dominance on the state level, much of it gained in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, has resulted in very conservative policy changes on issues ranging from abortion, to Medicaid expansion (or contraction), to voting access.

I posted this story not because I place any particular stock in Cook's predictions, but to draw attention to state and local elections that are being overlooked. The Democrats ignored state government throughout the Obama administration and even before, and have paid the price. Aside from abortion, Medicaid, and voter fraud ("voting access,"), just look at what has happened with gun control:



The Democrats are learning their lesson and want to roll all this back. Stopping them will be hard work. Just like Obama could not stop conservative policies at the state level, Trump will not be able to stop leftist policies at the state level.

[Georgia Girl 2]

They just keep trying to make you believe GA is going blue. Brian Kemp is the next Governor of Georgia. Stacey Abrams is a joke.