Posted on 08/06/2018 4:16:21 PM PDT by Pinkbell
An Emerson College e-Poll released on Monday shows that Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is a dead heat between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson.
The Emerson College Polling Society said in a statement accompanying the release of the poll:
The final US Congressional special election before the November midterm elections will be held on August 7 in Ohio’s 12th district and it shows a neck and neck race:
The Democrat, Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor has 47% of the vote and Republican, State Senator Troy Balderson is at 46%, 7% of very likely voters were undecided. The data was collected August 2 to 4, with +/-5 percentage points. The poll was taken prior to President Trump’s rally in the district on August 4.
The statement continued:
Both Congressional candidates are polarizing figures O’Connor has a 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable, while Balderson has a 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. President Trump is more popular in the district than he is nationwide with a 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Better news for Balderson, is that Pelosi is severely disliked with 56% disapproval and a 22% approval rating.
Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for O’Connor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%.
The Emerson College e-Poll “was conducted August 2-4, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely voters, n=431, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, age, county and gender based on a turnout out model.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I grew up in the 1st town established in the Connecticut Western Reserve on the PA, OH line.
Yeah they are weird, Lovely too, but they vote for who covers their backs.
Emerson called the Conor Lamb race as well, and many here poo-pooed it. You should be concerned.
My concern is that Emerson has had some recent success. They called the Conor Lamb race.
People here always poo-poo any poll they don’t like. I think Balderson has a shot at winning and very well could, but I don’t think it’s wrong to be concerned that we are neck and neck in this poll in a seat we should win.
Youngstown?
Lot of venom in that area for James Murtha
Yup, Armpit of the Nation.
If Balderson wins tomorrow he will owe his seat to both Jim Jordan, the next GOP Speaker of the House & POTUS, Donald J. Trump....period. John Kasich is like Obama, adrift-at-sea, and a full time servant of Satan, the Devil himself. Can you imagine that low life Kasich tried to sink Balderson at the eleventh hour? Kasich is a sick man contaminated by envy, hate and jealousy. What a loser!!!
“Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor,”
If this is true... and that’s a big IF, it is affirmation that the GOPe is not giving those non traditional MAGA and crossover voters a reason to show up this fall...
After PA18 fiasco, you would think they would learn that the same old tired messaging they have used for 20 years never got those voters to show up for them and won’t now.
This district should be safe, but so too should have pa18.
Find out tomorrow
Of course they are, not surprising.
I hope you are right. If so it will be no thanks to the mumbling, weak, wavering donor stooges that the congressional GOP establishment mostly represent.
I gather independents don’t vote in the primaries.
Kaine is absolutely in no danger of losing his seat. It won’t be close. I lived in VA for 36 years and left in 2015. It has been transformed from a solid red state to a solid blue state. That’s just a fact.
The GOP won 6 out of seven special elections for House seats since President Trump was inaugurated.
The sole exception was the Connor Lamb victory in western Pennsylvania, and Lamb ran his campaign sounding like a pro-Trump conservative.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow night.
One source tells me Balderson is up 7; another that he was up 8, slipped to 2, Trump righted the ship.& he is ok now.
Early vote from Franklin is about 59% D as you would expect, but that tells us nothing as to # of ballots cast. 59% of 1000 won’t amount to much.
I still think it ends close to 4-5 for Balderson, but hey, it’s a special so anything can happen.
“The poll was taken prior to President Trump’s rally in the district on August 4.”
pretty much the only statement in the article that matters ...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.