Posted on 08/06/2018 4:16:21 PM PDT by Pinkbell
An Emerson College e-Poll released on Monday shows that Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is a dead heat between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson.
The Emerson College Polling Society said in a statement accompanying the release of the poll:
The final US Congressional special election before the November midterm elections will be held on August 7 in Ohio’s 12th district and it shows a neck and neck race:
The Democrat, Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor has 47% of the vote and Republican, State Senator Troy Balderson is at 46%, 7% of very likely voters were undecided. The data was collected August 2 to 4, with +/-5 percentage points. The poll was taken prior to President Trump’s rally in the district on August 4.
The statement continued:
Both Congressional candidates are polarizing figures O’Connor has a 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable, while Balderson has a 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. President Trump is more popular in the district than he is nationwide with a 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Better news for Balderson, is that Pelosi is severely disliked with 56% disapproval and a 22% approval rating.
Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for O’Connor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%.
The Emerson College e-Poll “was conducted August 2-4, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely voters, n=431, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, age, county and gender based on a turnout out model.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Folks, here’s the real “skinny” truth relative the Ohio, 12thCD “special election” being held tomorrow, between Republican, Troy Balderson & Democrat, Danny O’Connor....the primary results:
Balderson, 19,282 votes, O”Connor, 17,757 votes...Balderson wins, however, here is what it will look like tomorrow when the full numbers of Republicans & Democrat votes are cast, as were cast in the Primary.
All Republicans who voted in the primary - 67,433 votes, Balderson.
All Democrats who voted in the primary - 43,885 votes, O’Connor.
Balderson victory margin, Republicans over Democrats +23,548 votes.
Folks in Ohio 12thCD...Cast your votes for Troy Balderson as you all did in the primary election. Go, Trump, Balderson, MAGA!!!
Democrats have been campaigning as pro Trump blue dogs in these areas and Republicans better start countering this, because there are too many gullible voters out there who actually believe the Democrat is the more conservative candidate. Expect this tactic by Democrats to continue this fall.
Emerson poll had Trump at 46% statewide in their last 2016 poll. The final result Trump got 51% and an 8% margin. The sample determines the outcome of the poll. If you over sample Dems then they win the poll. If you over sample Repubs then they win the poll. I am worried about this race but I will not be surprised if balderson wins handily.
Not to worry
They didn’t say how many undecideds which is the key in this race. Read LS analysis.
Tomorrow we will know
With only 431 respondents I don’t consider this to be a valid sample size
“Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor”
“This is the worrisome number.”
Yes it is. What’s up with that?
Haww Hoo!
And all of the talk radio shows I listened to today were completely silent on this special election. If it was mentioned at all, it was only briefly as I never heard it.
Last year, the special elections were front and center not just days, but weeks ahead of time as one of the main topics of conversation. The ones this year have scantly been mentioned at all, except in the aftermath expressing disappointment that they were lost and wondering how it could have happened after winning them the year before...because nobody knew about them or had any interest. That makes a difference. A lot of them were talking about “Trump’s rally” and playing clips from it and not mentioning why he was even there.
Beam me Up!
Ping. Would love your comments on this one as a bellwether.
I used this voting matrix in 2016 and clearly predicted the Trump win successfully with no problem. Actually my tracking this primary election cycle reveals that in most primaries this year Democrat voter turn out in most cases was dismal...much less then the primary season of 2016.
My prediction for the 2018 Mid-Term elections remain as I first called them a few months back, after about five to ten completed primary elections.
The Republicans will hold the House picking up 12-20 seats...but the real surprise is in the Senate, where the Republicans will pickup 6-12 Senate seats. Aside from the four or five Democrat Senators already in trouble in “Red States” you should include Sherrod in Ohio, Nelson, in Florida, Stabenow in Michigan, Kaine in Virginia, and Whitehouse in Rhode Island are in danger of losing their seats And..there are even more Democrat Senators up for grabs.even some in the West Coast States.
Trump will undertake 30-50 massive rally campaigns...The Democrats have nothing to match him. Obama is lost-at-sea and, is quite lazy at that.
12thCD, Ohio voters, get your butts to the polls tomorrow,in massive numbers and cast your votes for Republican, Troy Balderson. GOTV (Get Out The Vote)!!!
I remember that.
“Why would you have a special election so close to a general? And is the D candidate running those “I want to work with everbody” ads?”
I have no idea. Looking forward to your measured but accurate response.
That would be lovely. Hope you’ve nailed it.
If this turns out to be close, which I think it will, I believe the seat could change hands again in November.
Because the incumbent, Pat Tiberi, resigned and Ohio law stipulates that a special election be held to replace him. The winner serves out the remainder of Tiberi's term.
Ohio has always been a bit of a bellweather and the wild west,
It was the Connecticut Western Reserve and Indian Frontier.
Grant, McKinley and Garfield became Presidents...
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