Chart via Forbes.
Posted on 07/30/2018 9:03:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The hundred-some billion dollars that President Obama sent to Iran apparently has come and gone, leaving the Iranian economy once again desperate to avoid collapse. The pallets containing more than a billion dollars in hard currency have funded terror groups, and the rest of the haul apparently has gone to pay for debts, spending, and graft, leaving the real economy gasping for air, unable to generate hard currency yet dependent on imports.
Steve Hanke reports at Forbes:
Iran's rial plunged from 98,000 IRR/USD on Saturday to 112,000 IRR/USD on Sunday on Tehran's Ferdowsi Street. That stunning 12.5% one-day plunge has pushed the rial into a classic death spiral. The last time the rial was in a grip of such a spiral was back in September 2012.
The chart below shows the downward roller coaster ride the rial has been on during the past six months, as well as this weekend's free fall. As the chart indicates, the official IRR/USD rate is 44,030; whereas, the rate in the black market (read: free market) is 112,000. That wide spread is now measured by a huge black-market premium of 154%. This means that those who are privileged and have access to the official exchange rate can turn handsome profits of 154% in the blink of an eye.
Chart via Forbes.
The corollary of the collapse of the currency is wildfire inflation, affecting the life of everyone in Iran.
Chart via Forbes.
When people get hungry because they can't afford food, the prospects for regime stability decline.
Stay tuned for big news from Iran. If and when the mullahs' regime is toppled, it will be a new day in the Middle East and geostrategy.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
“The mullahs have all the guns”
At some point, the police and military can refuse to fire their weapons, or turn those weapons around against the mullahs.
That is what brought down the Shah.
If they are patient the Iranians will take care of the mullahs themselves. The Saudi’s are fighting several proxy wars against the mullahs and Israel is taking it to them in Syria.
Iran's rial plunged from 98,000 IRR/USD on Saturday to 112,000 IRR/USD on Sunday on Tehran's Ferdowsi Street.
That's okay, Iran is going to team up with a bunch of other imploding countries, like Venezuela, and create a new reserve currency that will cause the total destruction of the US dollar!!!! /sarc.
Thanks SeekAndFind.
There are a few hundred thousand hardcore supporters of the Iranian regime in their security forces (Revolutionary Guards and Basiji), active and reserve combined - out of a country of 80 million.
The Revolutionary Guards has converted a lot of its personnel away from their original domestic security functions, into military units to support their external operations (like Syria and Iraq) - things like rocket and artillery specialists. They would have to redeploy those forces to put down domestic rebellion, which could take weeks or even months, and would allow their enemies to advance in those theaters of conflict.
Those major components of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC, or Pasdaran in Persian) are somewhat pinned down and over committed, and mostly no longer well trained/equipped/configured for domestic security.
The Basiji (like riot police) in the past required re-enforcement from their foreign equivalents, like Hizbollah in Lebanon. They are also now heavily committed in Syria, and would also take time to re-deploy, and most can’t speak Persian.
A big change this time is that the unrest against the regime is very widespread across the country, including the Persian ethnic heartland. In 2009, the Green Revolution was basically just in Tehran, allowing concentration of security forces, and simplified their command, control and logistics. This year, demonstrations have erupted in dozens of cities in different areas of the country.
Personal enmity against the regime is very widespread and deep-seated - so many families have experienced loved ones being executed by the regime. There is nothing comparable in Venezuela where political executions have been more on the order of dozens, rather than hundreds of thousands under the mullahs. Yet people in Iran feel strongly enough to continue protesting.
One third of the population are ethnic minorities, which have had previous separatist movements (Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis). Their areas are particularly challenging for regime security forces - small, lightly armed regime security elements are very vulnerable in those areas. There are only enough large, heavily armed such security units for a few cities, at most.
If Tehran is in full revolt (like 2009), they really would have little left for the rest of the country - except for the regular military (which has consistently refused to fire on the public) and local police forces, who are part of the local communities/tribes/ethnic minorities.
As long as unrest is isolated, the regime can play whack-a-mole, and intimidate people with some public hangings. But if a critical mass of people rise up together, they can overwhelm the security forces.
Increasingly, individuals in the security forces are considering personal back up plans if the regime falls. Some number will bolt the country with their wealth (like IRGC officers), others (like Reserve Basiji) won’t show up for work on a bad day.
The economic collapse is causing everyone to adjust their calculations.
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It will be a very bloody decline. There's no indication the mullahs have lost the military.
Failed states often start wars to avert blame from the ruling class.
Excellent Engineers. Younger generations are far less radical. The Mad Mullahs have been staying in power by the same methods that the Dems have been using, and more. The Radicals have a closing window of opportunity, and they know it. The collapsing economic indicators are just accelerating it. They have a decade or two, at most. If Trump can help hasten their end to come before he leaves office on JAN 20 2025, it will just about cement our case for him being added to Mt Rushmore.
“There’s no indication the mullahs have lost the military.”
The regular military has consistently refused to fire on the population in Iran.
The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC, or Pasdaran in Persian) are the ones who conduct domestic oppression, reinforced by their Basij, who function like riot police and strong arm thugs.
Their numbers are not as large as many think, especially in relation to the large population, and the IRGC has gotten overextended in foreign wars.
It would be really difficult for those security forces to handle several simultaneous cities if there are mobs out. In 2009, when the demonstrations were limited to only Tehran, they required significant foreign re-enforcement (from Hizbollah - now weakened and committed in Syria).
There is a reasonable chance that those security forces will break and run at a certain point, if the situation gets bad enough. A lot of the Basiji on the books are just reservists, and they never get full turnout on good days. IRGC officers have enough money to flee the country - fortunes for the higher ups.
They keep the population intimidated through frequent hangings of anyone who back talks the regime, but they could not stop a significant portion of the population, if they rose together.
Hatred of the regime is widespread, because of all the executions they have committed over the years. A significant majority would prefer a new system, even when the economy was OK.
That regime could crack quickly. Once the first high profile regime figure gets lynched by a mob, I would expect a mass exodus of the regime elites, heading for their overseas bolt holes.
Family is everything. One of the plan under Agenda 21 was to bring in troops from other countries to garrison us, and to send troops to other countries to garrison them.
Sort of a variation on Five Eyes. You guard our people, and since you have no emotional connection, do what you have to in order to keep the peace. We’ll do the same.
Someone will be there to carry the mullahs another couple of rounds, but the real trick here is the sanctions.
Sanctions are definitely a strong tool available to us - they cost us little, compared to military intervention.
Surrendering our technology economic power over bad actors in the world, are among the most pernicious acts of sabotage committed by the Left.
The economy is the most advantageous field for us to conduct the fight. Starve the bad guys out of office.
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