Iranian Economy Collapsing: When people get hungry, the prospects for regime stability decline

American Thinker ^ | 07/30/2018 | Thomas Lifson

[SeekAndFind]

The hundred-some billion dollars that President Obama sent to Iran apparently has come and gone, leaving the Iranian economy once again desperate to avoid collapse.  The pallets containing more than a billion dollars in hard currency have funded terror groups, and the rest of the haul apparently has gone to pay for debts, spending, and graft, leaving the real economy gasping for air, unable to generate hard currency yet dependent on imports.

Steve Hanke reports at Forbes:

Iran's rial plunged from 98,000 IRR/USD on Saturday to 112,000 IRR/USD on Sunday on Tehran's Ferdowsi Street.  That stunning 12.5% one-day plunge has pushed the rial into a classic death spiral.  The last time the rial was in a grip of such a spiral was back in September 2012.

The chart below shows the downward roller coaster ride the rial has been on during the past six months, as well as this weekend's free fall.  As the chart indicates, the official IRR/USD rate is 44,030; whereas, the rate in the black market (read: free market) is 112,000.  That wide spread is now measured by a huge black-market premium of 154%.  This means that those who are privileged and have access to the official exchange rate can turn handsome profits of 154% in the blink of an eye.

Chart via Forbes.

The corollary of the collapse of the currency is wildfire inflation, affecting the life of everyone in Iran.

Chart via Forbes.

When people get hungry because they can't afford food, the prospects for regime stability decline.

Stay tuned for big news from Iran.  If and when the mullahs' regime is toppled, it will be a new day in the Middle East and geostrategy.

[Truthoverpower]

The mullahs hav all the guns

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I’ve always heard good things about Iranians in general. If things do collapse my hopes are that none of the good people get hurt and the ones who caused all of their misery have nowhere to run.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Israel’s war plan reportedly involves:

1) Destroying every last bit of Iran’s electric grid

and

2) Blowing-up all of the dams in the country and flooding vast stretches.

Suddenly the Ayatollahs will be totally consumed with figuring out how to feed 81 million people, and they won’t be able to cause any more mischief.

[1Old Pro]

I have a feeling that Iran peed off too many countries and the economic squeeze is going to tank their economy in a “planned” attack. The people will have to stand up and hopefully, unlike Obama, America stands with them.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

If hungry people meant regime change, then Venezuela should have crumbled a couple years ago.
 

[MortMan]

I read the last word as ‘gastrology’! Lol

[Aevery_Freeman]

<>"...unlike Obama, America stands with them."<>

And Trump just told the Mullahs to go pound sand. That'll embolden the People.

[leopud]

“”””The hundred-some billion dollars that President Obama sent to Iran apparently has come and gone, leaving the Iranian economy once again desperate to avoid collapse””””’.

---

As with any totalitarian dictatorship, donated funds do not go into “economy” or to ”people”.
It’s being consumed by organized corruption and funneled directly into pockets of power-holders.

[DIRTYSECRET]

Would they kill a mullah? A bit extreme if those people are religious.

[catnipman]

and Trump’s two groups of economic sanctions don’t even kick in until this August and this November respectively ...

[Tuketu]

...”When people get hungry because they can’t afford food, the prospects for regime stability decline.”

That will be our only hope if the Democraps coup d’état works.

[TheThirdRuffian]

Nah. They will just blow up Kharg Island. Or better yet, help the surrounding Arab countries do it. Then Iran would have basically zero oil exports.

It’s much more vulnerable and there be much less death. Israelis are nothing, if not hyper-vigilant about avoiding death.

[dfwgator]

Be careful thought, if you ally with Arabs today to take out a common enemy, those same Arabs will turn on you down the road.

[End Times Sentinel]

The mullahs hav all the guns

True, but if you can't feed your military, you can only shoot two at a time.

[vette6387]

“If hungry people meant regime change, then Venezuela should have crumbled a couple years ago. “

The problem is Venezuela is that it’s populated by Hispanics, who have a history of not being able to govern themselves for any length of time without resorting to a dictatorship. Then not being able to extricate themselves from it. Ditto for all of Central and South America. In the entire Western Hemisphere only America and Canada survive from their founding.

[Reily]

Compared to the other Mideast despots of that era the Shah wasn’t very good at the despot business. Even someone as “mild” and as “Western-PR savvy” as the late King Hussein of Jordan had his “crack down hard” moments that out did the Shah. Ask the Palestinians!

[Governor Dinwiddie]

#17: "Hispanics, who have a history of not being able to govern themselves for any length of time without resorting to a dictatorship."

Excellent point. Your whole post is worth bookmarking.

It reminds me of what Ann Coulter said a couple years ago. To paraphrase:

"We should thank God every day that America was founded by White Protestant Englishman, or else we would be living in some version of Brazil, Mexico, or Quebec."

 

[backwoods-engineer]

The hundred-some billion dollars that President Obama sent to Iran apparently has come and gone, leaving the Iranian economy once again desperate to avoid collapse. The pallets containing more than a billion dollars in hard currency have funded terror groups

For this ALONE, Obama should hang.