The mullahs hav all the guns
I’ve always heard good things about Iranians in general. If things do collapse my hopes are that none of the good people get hurt and the ones who caused all of their misery have nowhere to run.
I have a feeling that Iran peed off too many countries and the economic squeeze is going to tank their economy in a “planned” attack. The people will have to stand up and hopefully, unlike Obama, America stands with them.
I read the last word as ‘gastrology’! Lol
“”””The hundred-some billion dollars that President Obama sent to Iran apparently has come and gone, leaving the Iranian economy once again desperate to avoid collapse””””’.
and Trump’s two groups of economic sanctions don’t even kick in until this August and this November respectively ...
...”When people get hungry because they can’t afford food, the prospects for regime stability decline.”
That will be our only hope if the Democraps coup d’état works.
For this ALONE, Obama should hang.
There are a few hundred thousand hardcore supporters of the Iranian regime in their security forces (Revolutionary Guards and Basiji), active and reserve combined - out of a country of 80 million.
The Revolutionary Guards has converted a lot of its personnel away from their original domestic security functions, into military units to support their external operations (like Syria and Iraq) - things like rocket and artillery specialists. They would have to redeploy those forces to put down domestic rebellion, which could take weeks or even months, and would allow their enemies to advance in those theaters of conflict.
Those major components of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC, or Pasdaran in Persian) are somewhat pinned down and over committed, and mostly no longer well trained/equipped/configured for domestic security.
The Basiji (like riot police) in the past required re-enforcement from their foreign equivalents, like Hizbollah in Lebanon. They are also now heavily committed in Syria, and would also take time to re-deploy, and most can’t speak Persian.
A big change this time is that the unrest against the regime is very widespread across the country, including the Persian ethnic heartland. In 2009, the Green Revolution was basically just in Tehran, allowing concentration of security forces, and simplified their command, control and logistics. This year, demonstrations have erupted in dozens of cities in different areas of the country.
Personal enmity against the regime is very widespread and deep-seated - so many families have experienced loved ones being executed by the regime. There is nothing comparable in Venezuela where political executions have been more on the order of dozens, rather than hundreds of thousands under the mullahs. Yet people in Iran feel strongly enough to continue protesting.
One third of the population are ethnic minorities, which have had previous separatist movements (Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis). Their areas are particularly challenging for regime security forces - small, lightly armed regime security elements are very vulnerable in those areas. There are only enough large, heavily armed such security units for a few cities, at most.
If Tehran is in full revolt (like 2009), they really would have little left for the rest of the country - except for the regular military (which has consistently refused to fire on the public) and local police forces, who are part of the local communities/tribes/ethnic minorities.
As long as unrest is isolated, the regime can play whack-a-mole, and intimidate people with some public hangings. But if a critical mass of people rise up together, they can overwhelm the security forces.
Increasingly, individuals in the security forces are considering personal back up plans if the regime falls. Some number will bolt the country with their wealth (like IRGC officers), others (like Reserve Basiji) won’t show up for work on a bad day.
The economic collapse is causing everyone to adjust their calculations.
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It will be a very bloody decline. There's no indication the mullahs have lost the military.
Failed states often start wars to avert blame from the ruling class.