Posted on 11/12/2017 6:03:00 AM PST by Kaslin
There’s a new poll coming out today around 11 A.M. on the Alabama Senate race. It comes after a whirlwind week in the special election to decide who will replace Attorney Jeff Sessions’ vacancy. Supposedly, Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight got wind that it will show Democratic candidate and abortion extremist Doug Jones in the lead. If true, how much? We don’t know, but given the nature of the Alabama electorate, it’ll probably be within the margin of error, or maybe a step of two outside of that. Then again, it could show Jones with a rather solid lead in a deep red state. Either way, many will see the race as tightening. It may be, but I still find it difficult to believe that Republican Roy Moore will lose this election.
As the Hollywood Left’s inner core is exposed as rotten with all of the sexual abuse allegations, one has hit Mr. Moore. Four women accused him of being inappropriate with them while they were teenagers, one has accused the Senate candidate of molesting her when she was fourteen and he was thirty-two. The three other women were sixteen and eighteen at the time.
Another AL-SEN poll tmmw https://t.co/5PS9FzpHIE— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
I can report (unless my sources have failed me) that tomorrow will showcase the first public poll to show Doug Jones with a lead in the AL-Senate race. This race is very real.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
Here's another one... 48-46 Moore-Jones... Gravis. One day poll, but you get the idea this race is VERY close right now. https://t.co/rKMsXDFBL5— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
Change Research has Moore 44 - Jones 40 in AL-Sen. Conducted from Nov 9 - 11. pic.twitter.com/YlH1SozLLz— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 12, 2017
So, how will this impact the race? Will it sink Moore? Nate Cohn of The New York Times says it’s possible, but doesn’t see any signs to show that Moore is in trouble either. As for the Luther Strange write-in element, Cohn still says that the GOP is favored to win. Strange was the appointed GOP replacement upon Sessions’ resignation; Moore defeated him in the primary. In his interview with Slate, Cohn said, “I think Alabama is basically as tough as it gets for Democrats” (via Slate) [bold text indicates Slate’s questions]
What about the minority turnout in Virginia and what it might portend? More than one-fourth of voters in Alabama are black, and Democrats are absolutely dependent on them turning out.
Black turnout was higher than we expected, but it was by about as much as turnout was up statewide. So there’s not much reason to think that the black share of the electorate was greater than we anticipated, based on turnout by precinct. We entered the elections with fairly low expectations of black turnout in Virginia compared to a presidential election. And in Alabama, as you pointed out, that would be problematic for Democratic chances.
I am going to ask you to speculate, but how much do you think this scandal might affect Moore’s chances to be elected next month?
My honest answer is that I don’t know. Alabama is an extremely conservative state that is deeply polarized along racial lines. Hillary Clinton might not even have received 15 percent of the white vote in Alabama last year. For Doug Jones to win, he might need to double that number. So this is not an easy task at all for the Democrats.
I am certainly open to the possibility that these allegations are enough to be a serious burden on Roy Moore’s chances, especially given that he has already shown some electoral weakness in Alabama in the past. But I don’t see any reason to assume he is in serious jeopardy either.
There has been some talk of a Republican write-in candidate, such as Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary to Moore. That would make it a three-candidate race. What impact do you think that might have?
That’s also really tough to say. The thing I would want to point out, though, is that Alabama is a state where the Republicans would be favored even in a three-way race with two Republicans and a Democrat. Hillary Clinton received 34 percent of the vote in Alabama. The Democratic path to victory would require the Republicans to split the vote almost evenly. If a Republican had even a modest advantage among the two of them, that would be enough to swamp a 34 percent vote share.
Now Doug Jones is a relatively strong Democratic candidate, and Democratic turnout has been good in recent elections. And the polls have shown Jones in the low 40s, which is considerably better than Hillary Clinton. To the extent that that 41 or 42 percent vote share that polls imply is a result of moderate Republican voters who can’t vote for Roy Moore, then I think he would probably lose a lot of that support to a more typical Republican like Luther Strange. If that’s a reflection of higher Democratic turnout and enthusiasm, which I think is at least possible to some extent, then maybe Doug Jones would keep more of that vote share in a three-way race.
So, there you have it. Even with these new poll results, the favorite is still Moore, even with these allegations. Moore has seen his support among fellow Republicans evaporate, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee nixing their fundraising operations for him as well. Moore has denied the allegations and refused to step aside. The special election will be held on December 12.
Not just oversampling of dems, but add McTurtles, GOPe type! Moore will win in a landslide!
I heard one clown say he was surprised that it was only 5 points. How sweet it was!
I'll be very surprised if Moore doesn't win.
A fake poll intended to drive Moore out of the race.
Cool.
You know what’s exceptionally rare?
A Republican that doesn’t run like a flapping, clucking chicken when faced with a BS manufactured political attack.
Moore is awesome!
Mike Lee and the rest of the mother cluckers not so much.
SOP , first attack with Sex then work on Fake polls
Most have pulled out of supporting Moore. He likely does not have the money to continue running ads.
That was the main point of the dirty trick. Affect those writing the checks. If they change a few voters minds as well, that is just a bonus.
Go vote for Moore. These polls are deep state BS. Liars lie...that is what they do. These lunatics despise religious people, free citizens in a sovereign state and freedom, in general.
“The Moore camp is doing almost nothing. I’ve seen like one Roy Moore TV ad.”
Moore has been cut off nationally, and the big state donors have cut him off too. They are afraid of being smeared over their support of him.
If you want to see a Moore ad on TV, you’ll likely have to fund it yourself.
Goes to show that somehow Trump has more courage most other politicians.
I call BS on this.
Dueling polls.
My money is still on Roy Moore. AL is not going g with a Dem for that seat.
Fox Media Buzz joining libs as I type this this to crucify Moore and tell the world that Moore is guilty. Howard Kurtz is a liberal is a liberal nerd that belongs on CNN.
At this point we can write off polls- they are all propaganda designed to achieve an election result, not predict one.
He can win, then quit, and be replaced by Sessions. Then we get a new AG.
If there was ever a time to go negative, it is now.
Exclusive — Alabama Polls: Judge Roy Moore Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Doug Jones...
Breitbart ^ | 11 Nov 2017 | Matthew Boyle
Posted on 11/12/2017, 8:42:18 AM by E. Pluribus Unum
[FULL TITLE] Exclusive — Alabama Polls: Judge Roy Moore Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Doug Jones Before, After WaPo Smear
MONTGOMERY, Alabama — Two new polls demonstrate that GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate Judge Roy Moore remains unaffected entirely by smears in the Washington Post against him, and his lead before the Post piece on Thursday afternoon remains intact. One of the polls, which were both provided by the pollster to Breitbart News exclusively on Saturday evening, was conducted on Thursday morning before the publication of the Post piece that afternoon. The second one was conducted on Saturday evening. Together, they show Judge Moore’s lead over Democrat Doug Jones has been virtually unaffected since the Post story came out.
The first survey, which was conducted entirely before noon local time on Thursday, shows Moore leading Jones by 50 percent to 39.2 percent with 10.8 percent undecided. That survey of 1,354 likely voters in the upcoming Dec. 12 special election has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3604012/posts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.