Posted on 10/12/2017 9:30:01 AM PDT by Red Badger
A new study of ancient ash suggests that the dormant giant could develop the conditions needed to blow in a span of mere decades.
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Steam rises off the Grand Prismatic Spring, one of the most stunning hydrothermal features in Yellowstone National Park. Photograph by Tom Murphy, National Geographic Creative =========================================================================================
If the supervolcano underneath Yellowstone erupts again, we may have far less advance warning time than we thought.
After analyzing minerals in fossilized ash from the most recent mega-eruption, researchers at Arizona State University think the supervolcano last woke up after two influxes of fresh magma flowed into the reservoir below the caldera.
And in an unsettling twist, the minerals revealed that the critical changes in temperature and composition built up in a matter of decades. Until now, geologists had thought it would take centuries for the supervolcano to make that transition.
A 2013 study, for instance, showed that the magma reservoir that feeds the supervolcano is about two and a half times larger than previous estimates. Scientists also think the reservoir is drained after every monster blast, so they thought it should take a long time to refill. Based on the new study, it seems the magma can rapidly refresh—making the volcano potentially explosive in the geologic blink of an eye.
“It’s shocking how little time is required to take a volcanic system from being quiet and sitting there to the edge of an eruption,” study co-author Hannah Shamloo told the New York Times.
Still, Yellowstone is one of the best monitored volcanoes in the world, notes Michael Poland, the current Scientist-in-Charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory for the U.S. Geological Survey. A variety of sensors and satellites are always looking for changes, and right now, the supervolcano does not seem to pose a threat.
"We see interesting things all the time ... but we haven't seen anything that would lead us to believe that the sort of magmatic event described by the researchers is happening," says Poland via email, adding that the research overall is "somewhat preliminary, but quite tantalizing."
The new paper adds to a suite of surprises scientists have uncovered over the last few years as they have studied the supervolcano. (Also find out about a supervolcano under Italy that has recently been rumbling.)
Today, Yellowstone National Park owes much of its rich geologic beauty to its violent past. Wonders like the Old Faithful geyser and the Grand Prismatic Spring are products of the geothermal activity still seething below the park, which is driven in turn by the vast magma plume that feeds the supervolcano.
About 630,000 years ago, a powerful eruption shook the region, spewing forth 240 cubic miles’ worth of rock and ash and creating the Yellowstone caldera, a volcanic depression 40 miles wide that now cradles most of the national park.
That eruption left behind the Lava Creek Tuff, the ash deposit that Shamloo and her ASU colleague Christy Till used for their work, which they presented in August at a volcanology meeting in Oregon. The pair also presented an earlier version of their study at a 2016 meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
Based on fossil deposits like this one, scientists think the supervolcano has seen at least two other eruptions on this scale in the past two million years or so. Lucky for us, the supervolcano has been largely dormant since before the first people arrived in the Americas. While a handful of smaller belches and quakes have periodically filled the caldera with lava and ash, the last one happened about 70,000 years ago.
In 2011, scientists revealed that the ground above the magma chamber bulged by up to 10 inches in a span of about seven years.
"It's an extraordinary uplift, because it covers such a large area and the rates are so high," the University of Utah's Bob Smith, an expert in Yellowstone volcanism, told National Geographic at the time.
The swelling magma reservoir responsible for the uplift was too deep to create fears of imminent doom, Smith said, and instead the caldera’s gentle “breathing” offered valuable insights into the supervolcano’s behavior.
In 2012, another team reported that at least one of the past super-eruptions may have really been two events, hinting that such large-scale events may be more common than thought.
But almost everyone who studies Yellowstone’s slumbering supervolcano says that right now, we have no way of knowing when the next big blast will happen. For its part, the U.S. Geological Survey puts the rough yearly odds of another massive Yellowstone blast at 1 in 730,000—about the same chance as a catastrophic asteroid collision.
Wouldn’t surprise me if it blew. The way things have been going this year, it does seem like a “year of catastrophes”.
Is there an index for land value changes in Wyoming? /trolol
Does it matter?
If we had a good amount of advance warning, I think the best mitigation strategy would be: "Everyone move off the North American continent and go find someplace else to live for a few years."
If that thing goes, this could be LITERALLY of biblical proportions. I’m thinking Revelation, Daniel, Ezekiel, Matthew 24, etc.
IOW I ain't gonna worry about this.
La Palma volcano ‘seismic swarm MAPPED: Video captures La Palma volcano’s flurry of quakes
I can dig it. That’s pretty much my attitude since I got my CLL diagnosis.
Finally! Something to get all of those loud-mouthed actors and actresses to MOVE out of the USA!
Go, Mother Erf! GO!
Yep - can’t really plan for something like that. Those who reside in the areas most affected will meet their Maker a bit before the rest of us...
When it blows..... that’s THE END!
“U.S. Geological Survey puts the rough yearly odds of another massive Yellowstone blast at 1 in 730,000—about the same chance as a catastrophic asteroid collision.”
Sometimes I feel as if The Universe does NOT have MY best interests in mind and is going to do whateverthehell She WANTS to do! ;)
There is some conjecture among Bible believers that the United States is not found at all in relation to the seven-year Tribulation period. One author, Hal Lindsey, suggested that it might be an atomic attack just after the rapture. Here we have another scenario.
If not saved, folks need to seriously consider their time is rapidly running out. Acknowledge that you have sinned against a holy God and allow Him to pay the sin debt you owe and receive the free gift of eternal life that awaits.
I’d love to meet some FReepers in Heaven!
“...explosive in the geologic wink of an eye...”
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Oh noeeee! We’re all going to die....in 150,000 years. Quick, run!
Reminds me of the scene in “Day After Tomorrow” where Americans were all headed SOUTH ACROSS THE MEXICAN BORDER IN DROVES!
The Mexican Border Patrol was stunned......................
You may have heard this joke:
When you get to heaven, there will be three surprises:
1. You’ll see a lot of folks there you didn’t expect to see there.
2. There will be a lot of people missing that you expected to see there.
3. You’re there.
Also, FWIW. I don’t see the choice as “heaven vs hell”. I see it as “eternal life vs death”.
The next time Yellowstone blows someone could pick up the land for nothing. They’d hit it big if they can hold on to it for another 600,000 years.
Don’t be so grim. You won’t be dead, just pining for the fjords.
Remember to stock up on your emergency food supply. After all, Glen Beck says so. OH Brother..Oh yes, he has it himself. Friggan kook.
Here is the thing. As it says, there is a very remote chance of a super eruption. There have been many smaller St Helen sized eruptions. Nobody knows.
If there was a super eruption, about 1/2 to 2/3rds of the earths population would die off. The volcanic winter would last for about ten years-at least that is what they think by comparing past super eruptions. So we could expect an ice age to form which would last for years and years-at the very least, a mini ice age.
So the survivalists would live for how much longer? Unless as the prior post states, that you are prepared to move to another area of the planet, your toast. But I cant fault anyone for trying though.
I do not know if anyone knows, but the last volcanic eruption around Flagstaff Az was about 600 years ago. The whole of the west is covered with cones, and many are not extinct. I.E-the Long Valley caldera in CA is very active and will most likely go before Yellowstone ever would. Matter of fact, they say that the magma is actually higher than the valley around there. It has intruded into the mountains and hills above the valley. THAT ONE, is truly a ticking time bomb.
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