Two Days Out! Final Impressions

self | 11/6/2016 | LS

[LS]

First, thanks to JimRob for a site that lets us present not only articles and news, but opinion pieces. (I'll be kicking in another $100 here in a few minutes).

Now, on to business.

Freepers Ravi and SpeedyinTexas have done a bang-up job tracking registrations and early votes in IA, FL, and NC. My unnamed friends in Dayton, OH have been very good about giving me inside data from OH.

Some time ago I predicted Trump would win OH, FL, IA, and NC. I think that's a given now. Pollster Richard Baris told him that Cankles' people privately told him NC was "gone." Yes, she's still in OH and FL, but I think these are more desperation efforts as she is literally now just one small state from being completely unable to win. NV, CO, MI, MN, VA, PA, WI, or any combo of those pretty much seals her doom, but of course we want them ALL.

Baris also confirmed today that his final weekend polling shows FL out of reach for her---as I said. My guys see it taking a miracle for her to win OH.

The early voting (EV) in NV is troubling in that Ds have about a 40,000 advantage---but overall it is down from 56% in 2012 to 52%, and the main thing (as in most of these states) is that we do not know how "independents" especially will vote. Most polls show Trump anywhere from 7 to 20 points up with indies. I tend to use about 10% as a yardstick. With that, and with just a small D crossover in NV, Trump will win there.

We have two polls that show antiTrump Rs/antiHillary Ds shaking out at between +5 Trump and +7 Trump. If that's the case, Trump would win PA, MI, VA, and probably MN.

A week ago, as some of you know, I got internals from Team Trump, with whom I've been in very close contact for two months. This comes from the very top. Those internals showed VERY close races in eight states, including MI, NM, PA, VA, CT, RI, OR, WI. All were very much within "turnout margin." Trump was up in some, down just 1-2 in others. I do not have an update on any of these except yesterday Trump's communications director said they were up in NM. This confirmed a report earlier in the week by Kellyanne Conway who said they were "tied" in NM and MI.

I've spoken with some R strategists in MI. This is very winnable and Trump is doing fantastic in Macomb Co., up double digits. He's down just single digits in Oakland. If Oakland can just be "managed," the north/west vote will outperform Wayne. Currently absentees from Wayne way off (-12%) so MI is looking very good. Again, apply the D/R crossover # above, and MI is quite possibly Trump's. This GOP source said that at the Macomb rally he'd "never seen so many blue collar Ds at a Republican rally."

PA appears tighter. Insiders say that Trump is up huge all over the state except Philly---even in Pitt---but the black vote in Philly is, based on performance everywhere else, likely to be down.

Currently in FL black vote is off 3, NC off by 4-6. These are astounding #s and mean that in FL Cankles will lose over 110,000 votes off Obama's total right there; in NC, closer to 200,000; and nationwide close to 1 million. Moreover, white votes are up everywhere, anywhere from 3-4% from 2012. Just to put that in perspective, the "Latino surge" in FL would have to be 40% HIGHER just to offset the white increase.

All these portend a very tight race in PA, VA, and possibly even WI. However, Team Trump pulled DT out of WI in favor of MN, where their internals show a very, very close race. As you know, he is up 12% in MN CD8, which no Republican has won.

If I had to guess, I'd say Trump wins MI, PA too close to call, we lose WI. Given the horrible polling record of VA, and the latest poll showing Trump +3 there, I have to think Trump also wins VA. The Nova districts are down (six of them) an average of 35% each, while southern/western VA (7 districts) were all up quite a bit in early voting. But VA doesn't do D/R ballots, so we have no way to really count by registration---which in large part is why polling there is so tough to confirm.

I think Trump has NM in a squeaker. CO too unpredictable to call. Rs lead early voting, but they led bigger in 2012 and lost. However, pot was on the ballot then, and isn't now. Moreover, most polls show "da yuts" are off by the same % as blacks, about -3%. Again, this is huge in places like CO. I can't call CO or NV now. There are indicators they could go either way.

NH was not on the "internals" list I saw, but four polls since then give Trump the lead there. I think it's likely in Trump's column, along with ME CD2.

Now, a few non-number/polling items. Slate has announced it will do "exit polling" reports all day on election day.

Of course, what this means is they will try to depress GOP turnout with false stories. REMEMBER 2004, when Drudge was running false exit polls and I told you at 4:00 pm after I did a key "poll flushing" at a battleground precinct that Bush won the election? THEY WILL LIE. You cannot get depressed about "exit lies."

A better barometer is obviously the election night calls. My prediction here is that they will DELIBERATELY delay any call for Trump until the last possible moment. In 2004, as Bill Sammon showed in his book "At Any Cost," the networks delayed all calls of Bush states up to FIVE TIMES as long as they called Gore states, when Bush had up to FIVE TIMES the margin of lead. In other words, if Bush was winning by 5 points in GA, they delayed it for an hour, while calling a Gore state with under 1% within 20 minutes.

THIS WILL HAPPEN. Probably the best indicator of a great Trump night is if, the minute after the polls close, they have NOT called VA, PA, and NH for Cankles. If these go 20 minutes with no call, Trump has likely won the election.

I remain confident, based on the USC Poll and PPD poll that Trump will win with about a 4-5% pop vote margin, will top 60m votes. I still think 300-320 EVs are entirely within reach.

If Cankles wins, we have all had the sad fortune of witnessing the last days of the greatest republic on earth.

[LS]

Well, OH was a “hillary” state. If he even gets 2% more he wins OH (and he already has).

[Balding_Eagle]

Of course it’s true, but this wasn’t the place to include it.

This from the guy whose byline on FR used to be;

“If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years”.

[AmusedBystander]

In a sane world, Trump would win all 57 states.

Either way, we both agree that he will win and that our long national nightmare with the Clintons may finally be over.

[Rebelbase]

If Trump wins there will be spontaneous celebrations everywhere across the nation.

If Hillary wins it’ll be dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria and human sacrifice.

[djf]

Totally.

After months and months of the media telling us that Trump is in the dumpster, how can you possibly expect them to say he won?

It would show them as two faced as many of us know they are.

[SamAdams76]

Thanks for the great analysis, as always.

Hard to believe we are just hours away from knowing the outcome. I lean towards your way of seeing things. For the first time in our lifetimes, we have a real choice for president. One who is not a career politician. We've been waiting for such a choice for decades. Let's not blow it!

[JediJones]

One correction, Trump is not just “one small state” away from winning based on your counts. He is two small states or one big state away from winning.

When you give him NC, FL, OH and IA, he still needs 10 EVs to get to 269. So the three smallest states in play would not be enough on their own.

NH - 4 EV
NV - 6 EV
CO - 9 EV
MN - 10 EV
WI - 10 EV
VA - 13 EV
MI - 16 EV
PA - 20 EV

And he can top off a 269 tie with ME CD2’s 1 EV. Or use CO and ME CD2 to get a tie.

Unfortunately, with NV and CO looking so weak in early voting, we’re left aiming for one of a handful of Hail Mary passes, wins that defy lots of polling or defy decades of presidential results. This is a bad position to be in. NV and CO were key to Trump’s map. And as I said at the time she picked Kaine, that may have been the smartest move Hillary ever made. Peeling VA off of the GOP map put the GOP candidate in a terrible electoral position right off the bat.

[JediJones]

I haven’t seen any evidence whatsoever of real crossover voting of Dems. Crossover voting always happens in small numbers and seems like we’re seeing the same here on both sides. Anecdotal reports of seeing “blue collar Democrats” at a rally is meaningless.

[AllAmericanGirl44]

bkmk

[JediJones]

Cruz is supporting Trump and has attended rallies with Pence.

[CodeToad]

“I haven’t seen any evidence whatsoever of real crossover voting of Dems.”

So, look harder.

[CodeToad]

“I haven’t seen any evidence whatsoever of real crossover voting of Dems. “

I haven’t seen evidence that they are not.

[CodeToad]

"Cruz is supporting Trump and has attended rallies with Pence."

At the last second Cruz has. The last second. Cruz is doing this for himself for his future run in 2018. That's it.

[SteveH]

bump

[JDoutrider]

Bookmark

[SpeedyInTexas]

On Colorado, REPs have been gaining nearly 1% a day and are basically tied with DEMs. DEMs were up 10%, two weeks ago. On Monday, we get new CO numbers. That should be for Friday and Saturdays ballots. On Tuesday we get Mondays numbers.

So by election day, Tuesday, we will have 3 more days of CO ballots. At 1% a day, REPs could be leading by 3%, but at least by 2%.

I wouldn’t give up on CO. Right now, I’m looking at Trump 293 EV. All the safe states plus IA, OH, NC, FL, PA, NH, CO and ME District 2.

[BlueCat]

Bump

[goldbux]

* * *

[Kay]

Yes. Very good video. Emotional and inspiring.

I will pass it on.

[Impy]

I just saw the greatest ad ever, from some PAC. Hillary with various tools and power tools destroying phones and computers. Anyone else see this?