Posted on 11/05/2016 12:10:57 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
|
|
11/05 |
11/04 |
Change |
|
Trump |
48.0 |
46.9 |
+ 1.1 |
|
Clinton |
42.6 |
43.4 |
- .8 |
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
At this point, I think ABC/Washington Post are the only ones pretending Clinton has any momentum nationally.
Hillary is dead in the water.
What she’s doing over the next few days is the political equivalent of jumping the shark.
A dead campaign is still a dead campaign.
I always wondered about some of the methodology of the polls in general, and wondered whether they had some hidden geographical biases. Even if you tried to design a balanced poll to include fair numbers of D, R and I - if you polled for them in places like CA and NY you would still be oversampling because Rs in those states are slightly more likely to vote D than Rs in MO or WY. Then again, perhaps Ds in WY are more likely to vote R than D's in NY or CA. But it is also a question of the EC and oversampling geographically won't get an accurate sense of how the states will come in.
I do agree this won't be a Dem +7 election. And the trend among all polls has shown attrition from the 3rd parties, as many people had suspected. As we get closer to D day R day, many who are displeased with the 2 major candidates are getting sober about the importance of their vote this year. I always suspected that the 3rd party people would break towards Trump, since Hillary is already a very defined candidate. If you didn't like her 3 months ago, you aren't going to wake up Tuesday deciding you do. It was up to Trump to get those people off the fence by proving his mettle and I think he has done that fairly well. He has been a firebrand candidate, practically non-stop campaigning every day for a year, 3-5 stops per day... no secret fundraising events, no week-long hiatus to "rest" or "debate prep" or to rotate the sequence of his medication so he won't collapse on the street. He held his own - heck, more than held his own - against a very established & experienced candidate, against 93% of the media, an onslaught of dirty tricks and lies, fearmongering, hate, and even against some backstabbers inside the GOP. He has overcome all of this to stay competitive and I am very hopeful he will win.
Good! - This should quiet a few of the concern trolls.
Not that I’m by any means complacent: The Dems and their allies have a tremendous ground game, as we saw in 2012, and with a serious portion of the GOPe unsupportive or even aiding the Dems, I worry about the Republican ground game (which was a disaster in 2012.)
Still, I’ll sleep a bit better, here shortly.
my God!......... somebody post the chart!
Well said. I do think that Johnson hurts PIAPS a little
the polls versus what we’ve all seen in real numbers at the two opposing candidates rallies and the endless anecdotal stories on the ground of enthusiasm, etc equals this:
“You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality” ~ Ayn Rand
Hillary’s base isn’t turning out for her. There’s zero enthusiasm.
Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic and are turning out in big numbers to vote for him.
None of this is reflected in the polls.
The reason why it isn’t 2012. Its more like 2014.
Amen!
Amen!
Now that’s what I’m talking about!
Thanks for the clear explanation. Their results make more sense to me now.
In addition to your points, undecideds are deciding on Trump.
African American group still showing 5% support. If that moves too, this poll would show "blowout."
“Graph at link indicates that probability of Trump win is outside 95-percent confidence interval if election were held today.”
To win the electoral college he needs a margin of 3% plus in the popular vote - which is looking increasingly likely. I actually think he’ll break 5% the way things are going! :-)
“This is obviously at odds with what we’ve been told by the MSM during that time interval.”
This is a tracking poll, which is harder to fudge than the one-off polls. Watch for serious cognitive dissonance among the MSM types over the next few days... LOL!
Trump/Pence 2016!
May explain Obama’s rattled behavior today.
I’m sure he’s been seeing similar numbers from polls not released to the public.
Women and black voters moving to Trump.
Two Democratic constituencies Hillary hasn’t locked up.
Gee, wonder why.
We’re told Trump had problems securing his own base. Well, its coming home.
What the media isn’t saying is how deep Hillary is underwater with her own base.
The bottom line poll number is nowhere near as informative as the internals.
Few people take the time to read them and understand their true significance.
If the poll website is accurate and honest, your claim does not apply to the poll that is the subject of the OP.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that ... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values.
You'll find that neat the bottom of the page, under "About the Survey"
I don't either. That information is not part of the breakout of how the respondents answered the questions.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that ... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values.
I'm curious about the party affiliation breakdown for this poll, have searched the website quite thoroughly to find it, have asked those who claim to know the party preference breakout to say where they find it (crickets), and still don;t know the party preference breakout for this poll.
This my friends and fellow patriots is the best thing we could have seen to start our Saturday before Election Day...Trump breaking thru and achieving his highest support yet; that is yuuuge! Keep Driving, almost there...
TG
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