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USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 11/05 -- Trump + 1.1 , Clinton - .8
USC/LA Times ^ | November 5, 2016 | USC/LA Times

Posted on 11/05/2016 12:10:57 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod

11/05

11/04

Change

Trump

48.0

46.9

+ 1.1

Clinton

42.6

43.4

- .8


(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; polls
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To: BlessedBeGod
Marist and Fox News polls have Clinton declining from their previous ones too.

At this point, I think ABC/Washington Post are the only ones pretending Clinton has any momentum nationally.

41 posted on 11/05/2016 12:42:29 AM PDT by Trump20162020
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To: Trump20162020

Hillary is dead in the water.

What she’s doing over the next few days is the political equivalent of jumping the shark.

A dead campaign is still a dead campaign.


42 posted on 11/05/2016 12:50:04 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: Fai Mao
I don't know if it is Dem +7 or not. Not sure why the 4 person race should matter... or are you saying they are not allowing the respondents to choose Johnson or Stein? I just assumed the remaining 9% unaccounted for chose Johnson, Stein, or remained undecided which is pretty in line with other polls.

I always wondered about some of the methodology of the polls in general, and wondered whether they had some hidden geographical biases. Even if you tried to design a balanced poll to include fair numbers of D, R and I - if you polled for them in places like CA and NY you would still be oversampling because Rs in those states are slightly more likely to vote D than Rs in MO or WY. Then again, perhaps Ds in WY are more likely to vote R than D's in NY or CA. But it is also a question of the EC and oversampling geographically won't get an accurate sense of how the states will come in.

I do agree this won't be a Dem +7 election. And the trend among all polls has shown attrition from the 3rd parties, as many people had suspected. As we get closer to D day R day, many who are displeased with the 2 major candidates are getting sober about the importance of their vote this year. I always suspected that the 3rd party people would break towards Trump, since Hillary is already a very defined candidate. If you didn't like her 3 months ago, you aren't going to wake up Tuesday deciding you do. It was up to Trump to get those people off the fence by proving his mettle and I think he has done that fairly well. He has been a firebrand candidate, practically non-stop campaigning every day for a year, 3-5 stops per day... no secret fundraising events, no week-long hiatus to "rest" or "debate prep" or to rotate the sequence of his medication so he won't collapse on the street. He held his own - heck, more than held his own - against a very established & experienced candidate, against 93% of the media, an onslaught of dirty tricks and lies, fearmongering, hate, and even against some backstabbers inside the GOP. He has overcome all of this to stay competitive and I am very hopeful he will win.

43 posted on 11/05/2016 12:50:45 AM PDT by monkeyshine
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To: BlessedBeGod

Good! - This should quiet a few of the concern trolls.

Not that I’m by any means complacent: The Dems and their allies have a tremendous ground game, as we saw in 2012, and with a serious portion of the GOPe unsupportive or even aiding the Dems, I worry about the Republican ground game (which was a disaster in 2012.)

Still, I’ll sleep a bit better, here shortly.


44 posted on 11/05/2016 12:51:02 AM PDT by Paul R.
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To: BlessedBeGod

my God!......... somebody post the chart!


45 posted on 11/05/2016 12:51:11 AM PDT by changeitback440
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To: monkeyshine

Well said. I do think that Johnson hurts PIAPS a little


46 posted on 11/05/2016 12:57:13 AM PDT by Fai Mao (PIAPS for Prison 2016)
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To: BlessedBeGod; All

the polls versus what we’ve all seen in real numbers at the two opposing candidates rallies and the endless anecdotal stories on the ground of enthusiasm, etc equals this:

“You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality” ~ Ayn Rand


47 posted on 11/05/2016 12:57:32 AM PDT by cpforlife.org (A Catholic Respect Life Curriculum is available 4 FREE at CpForLife.org)
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To: Paul R.

Hillary’s base isn’t turning out for her. There’s zero enthusiasm.

Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic and are turning out in big numbers to vote for him.

None of this is reflected in the polls.

The reason why it isn’t 2012. Its more like 2014.


48 posted on 11/05/2016 12:57:52 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: SoFloFreeper

Amen!


49 posted on 11/05/2016 1:01:45 AM PDT by Proudcongal (Almighty God, we pray for a Trump victory and for our nation!)
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To: scottinoc

Amen!


50 posted on 11/05/2016 1:02:22 AM PDT by Proudcongal (Almighty God, we pray for a Trump victory and for our nation!)
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To: BlessedBeGod

Now that’s what I’m talking about!


51 posted on 11/05/2016 1:05:04 AM PDT by Ken H (Best election ever!)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

Thanks for the clear explanation. Their results make more sense to me now.


52 posted on 11/05/2016 1:10:32 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([VOTE FRAUD] == [CIVIL WAR])
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To: goldstategop

In addition to your points, undecideds are deciding on Trump.


53 posted on 11/05/2016 1:11:39 AM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: The Klingon
Women are breaking for Trump, is the takeaway from the internals -- if you put any/much stock in this poll.

African American group still showing 5% support. If that moves too, this poll would show "blowout."

54 posted on 11/05/2016 1:15:53 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Steely Tom

“Graph at link indicates that probability of Trump win is outside 95-percent confidence interval if election were held today.”

To win the electoral college he needs a margin of 3% plus in the popular vote - which is looking increasingly likely. I actually think he’ll break 5% the way things are going! :-)

“This is obviously at odds with what we’ve been told by the MSM during that time interval.”

This is a tracking poll, which is harder to fudge than the one-off polls. Watch for serious cognitive dissonance among the MSM types over the next few days... LOL!

Trump/Pence 2016!


55 posted on 11/05/2016 1:17:02 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty (Trump/Pence 2016! Make America Greater Than Ever!)
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To: BlessedBeGod

May explain Obama’s rattled behavior today.

I’m sure he’s been seeing similar numbers from polls not released to the public.


56 posted on 11/05/2016 1:17:03 AM PDT by Ken H (Best election ever!)
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To: Cboldt

Women and black voters moving to Trump.

Two Democratic constituencies Hillary hasn’t locked up.

Gee, wonder why.

We’re told Trump had problems securing his own base. Well, its coming home.

What the media isn’t saying is how deep Hillary is underwater with her own base.

The bottom line poll number is nowhere near as informative as the internals.

Few people take the time to read them and understand their true significance.


57 posted on 11/05/2016 1:21:02 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide; Steely Tom
-- The difference between the LA Times poll and all the others methodologically is that the others count only whole votes for candidates and some will add in leaners while the LAT poll allows respondents to rate their commitment on a 0-100 scale. --

If the poll website is accurate and honest, your claim does not apply to the poll that is the subject of the OP.

Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that ... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values.

You'll find that neat the bottom of the page, under "About the Survey"

58 posted on 11/05/2016 1:26:33 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: monkeyshine; Fai Mao
-- I don't know if it is Dem +7 or not. --

I don't either. That information is not part of the breakout of how the respondents answered the questions.

Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that ... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values.

I'm curious about the party affiliation breakdown for this poll, have searched the website quite thoroughly to find it, have asked those who claim to know the party preference breakout to say where they find it (crickets), and still don;t know the party preference breakout for this poll.

59 posted on 11/05/2016 1:33:06 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Ken H; All

This my friends and fellow patriots is the best thing we could have seen to start our Saturday before Election Day...Trump breaking thru and achieving his highest support yet; that is yuuuge! Keep Driving, almost there...

TG


60 posted on 11/05/2016 1:34:45 AM PDT by Tobias Grimsley
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