I always wondered about some of the methodology of the polls in general, and wondered whether they had some hidden geographical biases. Even if you tried to design a balanced poll to include fair numbers of D, R and I - if you polled for them in places like CA and NY you would still be oversampling because Rs in those states are slightly more likely to vote D than Rs in MO or WY. Then again, perhaps Ds in WY are more likely to vote R than D's in NY or CA. But it is also a question of the EC and oversampling geographically won't get an accurate sense of how the states will come in.
I do agree this won't be a Dem +7 election. And the trend among all polls has shown attrition from the 3rd parties, as many people had suspected. As we get closer to D day R day, many who are displeased with the 2 major candidates are getting sober about the importance of their vote this year. I always suspected that the 3rd party people would break towards Trump, since Hillary is already a very defined candidate. If you didn't like her 3 months ago, you aren't going to wake up Tuesday deciding you do. It was up to Trump to get those people off the fence by proving his mettle and I think he has done that fairly well. He has been a firebrand candidate, practically non-stop campaigning every day for a year, 3-5 stops per day... no secret fundraising events, no week-long hiatus to "rest" or "debate prep" or to rotate the sequence of his medication so he won't collapse on the street. He held his own - heck, more than held his own - against a very established & experienced candidate, against 93% of the media, an onslaught of dirty tricks and lies, fearmongering, hate, and even against some backstabbers inside the GOP. He has overcome all of this to stay competitive and I am very hopeful he will win.
Well said. I do think that Johnson hurts PIAPS a little
I don't either. That information is not part of the breakout of how the respondents answered the questions.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that ... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values.
I'm curious about the party affiliation breakdown for this poll, have searched the website quite thoroughly to find it, have asked those who claim to know the party preference breakout to say where they find it (crickets), and still don;t know the party preference breakout for this poll.
Poll internals at #29
If you like polls/methodology, it's interesting.