Posted on 10/27/2016 3:44:17 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
Why is Republican nominee Donald Trump leading in two battleground states and nearly tied in another with less than two weeks before the election? Experts, analysts, and Washington, D.C. insiders lectured the American people on how this was not supposed to happen.
According to a new poll, Trump maintains a healthy lead in Ohio over Hillary Clinton, 46 to 42 percentage points and in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Florida, Trump leads Clinton 45 to 43. In Pennsylvania, Trump continues to dwindle Clinton's lead where he is now within three points of the Democratic nominee.
Florida and Ohio are must wins for the Trump campaign, and combined with a win in Pennsylvania, Trump would more than likely be the next President of the United States.
In the most accurate poll of 2012, Trump is basically tied with Clinton nationally.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll predicted the correct outcome of that election, exposing Obama's dramatically underestimated performance and the falsehood of Romney's estimated clear victory.
At a rally in Tallahassee on Tuesday night, Trump made clear his intentions in the Sunshine State. “In 14 days we are going to win the state of Florida and we are going to win back the White House,” he declared.
” PA has a lot of anti Trump suburban women.”
And PA has Philly.
Trump was always ahead. Those polls are fiction. He’s going to win in a land slide.
OK why don;t you get a grip and understand as I think winning VA is a little out, but I hope I am wrong.
As for his rally, can you tell me was that just a couple of days ago, as I don;t seem to remember him being there in the last week?
Here’s the truth about PA...
Trump should win it handily... and this isn’t emotion, this is logic.
In each of the last 3 cycles, Republicans have put ~2.7 M votes int he box in PA.... and that’s with an unpopular war president in 2004, and 2 dogs, McCain 2008 and Romney 2012. So R’s can reliably put ~2.7 M in the box with anyone on the ticket in PA.
The last 3 cycles on the D side have been ~3M for Kerry, 3.3M for Obama in 08 and ~3M for Obama in 12.
Polling in the state has shown, when regions breakdown is offered in them, that Hillary is massively underperforming Obama 12, especially outside the Philly region. In 2012, Obama got 120,000 of his 300,000 lead in places like Pittsburgh, Erie, and Harrisburg... and guess what? Hillary is either losing, or grossly behind Obama 12 numbers in these areas in fact.. the only one of these areas she is ahead of Trump is Pittsburgh, but the margin is so small, she’s only likely to see a 20,000 vote win there, vs the 90,000 vote win Obama got there... When you add in she is losing Erie by 9 points, Trump is likely to win Erie by 10,000... and the same is True for the Harrisburg area. When all is said and done... Hillary will likely not see more than MAYBE 10,000 votes, if that, go her way outside of Philly.
Now, Trump has more enthusiasm and support than any D I have seen in 30 years of living in PA, including Bush I who actually won the state. More than 165,000 people have switched affiliation from D to R just so they can vote for Trump.
So, working backwards, with these two tidbits, Hillary assuming the 165k are all going to show up to vote... which is a fair assumption... You take 2.7M you add 1.65 and then take away 100k from 2012... you have Trump at a minimal base of 2.87 and Hillary at 2.9. That’s if you assume all other things are equal....
They are not. Trump is going to bring in far more voters, Trumpocrats are real, and they will be showing up in numbers in PA... Trump should EASILY be able to put 3M + into the box on eleciton day. For Hillary to do this, she is going to HAVE to outperform in Philly Obama in 2012... not to 2008 numbers, but well above 2012.. and there just isn’t the support or enthusiasm for her to do it. She literally must get more than 100,000 more votes out of Philly that Obama did, just to stay even... and with the enthusiasm and wide support Trump has, I really don’t think “simply staying even with O 2012” will be enough.
Hillary is going to underperform O across PA.. Including Philly.. and meanwhile Trump is going to overperform anything any R here has ever done... easily topping 3M total votes.
The numbers just aren’t here for her, I don’t see any math that she is capable of putting 3M votes in the box.. honestly I think she’ll be lucky if she’s at 2.6ish at the end of the night.
Time will tell, but I firmly believe PA will go Trump, and it will not be the only Rust Belt surprise that night either.... Time will tell... but for Hillary to win PA... she’s going to have to have a night closer to Obama 2008 to pull it off, and she just doesn’t have the support or enthusiasm here to get anything close to that.
My suburban PA neighbors had Trump signs stolen last night. Mine is still surviving.
Dab some honey on your Trump sign; it will be crawling with ants.
Drink Yuengling beer. America’s oldest breweryand very pro Trump! PA beer.
True (in fact the Repub establishment didn't help him much), but he did run against the unlikable and untrustworthy McAullife.
No kid din man! can’t stand that guy!
Working EV in Harris Co.
A SP.-speaking nun needed help on her ballot total R voting....wow was in shock and another non -English speaker going full R also.
I love it!
U better believe they are getting ready to spring those Apprentice outtake videos of Trump.
It is gonna happen.
Then it will be a landslide and Megyn Kelly's head will explode.
http://www.wbaltv.com/article/early-voting-begins-october-27-in-maryland/7663033
People reporting in FB forums say there were a *lot* of people wearing red.
I remain hopeful.
Worse, they will prance out liberal icon, Nancy Pelosi, and claim he forced frenched kissed her at the vatican in front of Chelsea Clinton.
Shop loaded with about 12 customers plus operators...ALL WOMEN.
When they saw my hat, the fun started...ALL were for Trump. These were women of all ages, all walks of life, all income brackets....I talked with them as I handed out my FRee Republic "business cards". I was amazed at how well-informed they were...and so animated and motivated!
Trump will take Florida in a tsunami! He WILL get the womens' vote !!!
(.....and, BTW, I hope I recruited some new "Freepers" with my cards!)
Leni
(Florida)
In the ‘MD for Trump’ FB groups, *Democrats* are reporting casting their early votes for Trump.
Early voting in MD has surpassed all previous records.
I don’t think the MSM has a clue of what’s really going on.
...”I think that Wikileaks has even more damaging revelations to come”...
That’s the only reason the polls move at all now....and it’s Hillary that’s taking the hit. Which is why they’re doing what they can to hold on to what they have....the seepage is turning into a waterfall of people leaving her.
I think the nation is waking up to the reality of what a Hitlery Presidency would be. Before it was probably a joke to them. Now that it’s 12 days away they are thinking twice about putting a corrupt psychopathic brain damaged criminal into office.
This early voting, absentee ballots, etc. has got to be making Hillary and her camp VERY nervous!
Leni
As long as MSM keeps saying Hillary’s in the lead...then she’s loosing..you can bank on it. If she was really ahead they wouldn’t be working at it so hard to convince the people.
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