Posted on 10/21/2016 4:49:13 AM PDT by tatown
The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
They interviewed the pollster last night who said the debate effect will not be seen for a few days.
CNN, Fox and of course MSNBC all saying an electoral blowout and the most corrupt politician to ever run for president will be elected and her name is Clinton. And the only polls that are “reliable” are their own polls. So dammit if Fox says Trump is down by 7 points and trails in every swing-state it’s fact. CNN also reporting Fox polls now because it’s worse for Trump than their poll. According to Bret Bair and his “All Star Panel”, Hillary Clinton will be the next president. Any poll that says Trump is leading is an outlier and not to be given any weight. Charles Krauthammer and Brit Hume vindicated.
I’ve noticed they always calculate more D+ than R? It seems the pollster think there has been a tremendous swing in the democRATS column in our nation as far as voter population is concerned. Could it be they know something we don’t...our country has changed so much sometimes I don’t recognize her..just go anywhere where people gather and you’ll hear other languages. 65 million non-English speaking folk here can easily rattle our election in a heartbeat!! I believe democRATS have been the victors in this so called fight..our spineless reps helped the rats increase their voting block!! They thought by playing nice and granting amnesty was going to get them a huge voting block...egg on them...like trump said they don’t know how to win...corrupted bastards!!!
Yes they are oversampling Dems, but if they have always been oversampling Dems by those margins it means it makes an ok baseline view for trends.
This is what the USC is great for.. Because it’s sampling the same folks daily it is a far better indicator of real trending of the race... It may not give you the accurate result but it is an excellent poll to see the real trends not the invented ones by manipulating samples.
I can make any poll say anything I want by manipulating sample and questions... But if I have the same sample daily and the same questions daily I am producing a far more reliable baseline for trend analysis. Downside is I am stuck with whatever bias my original sample group may have had, but I am far better at offering real insight to what is really going on.
Polling is expensive, and good polling is very expensive.
But if the goal is to sell "news", bad polling is as good as good polling, and may be even better (A "Clinton ahead by 15 points" headline gets more attention than a "Race Tied" headline).
Was/is the survey population contacted by landlines the same in 2008, 2012 and 2016? I don't think so. In 2008 few had a smart phone. By 2012, most millennials. In 2016, even grandma has a smart phone.
I'll agree that among voters with landlines only, no caller ID and time to waste talking to a pollster, Clinton has the lead.
Do you think this poll will improve as the days pass for trump since the debate? I’m praying so hard that God will miraculously open the eyes of the people to favor trump and shut their ears and eyes to the evil mediapukes
The best Obama did was D+6, in 2012. And when it comes to enthusiasm, Hillary ain’t no Obama.
CC
There are some Bush/Romney Republicans out there but I think the rest and Reagan democrats come out.
There is an interesting trend in this poll, although it is well within the region of statistical noise. But Hillary is closing slowly on Trump in the last three days in a four way race, and Trump is closing on Hillary in a two way race. Again, it’s all within the realm of static, but worth watching.
I’m beginning to think debates have almost NO impact on elections. Unless someone says something utterly catastrophic.
Interesting demographic breakdown at link. Bump.
NOW there is a problem with the LA Times poll in that the responses are not as anonymous as the group may have thought.
(It's not that a 19-year old black Trump supporter in Illinois is skewing the poll, it's that the NY Times somehow found out that there IS a 19 year old black Trump supporter in Illinois.)
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-daybreak-poll-questions-20161013-snap-story.html
The liberal media narrative is dishonest. Their polls are designed to make the news they want them to make. Think Goebbles.
I think the fact that all 3 tracking polls (including the 3 day Rasmussen) showed basically no movement yesterday though indicates the media’s efforts yesterday to hit Trump on his “scary” election comments failed, probably offset by a good debate performance Wed night. FWIW the tracking polls all showed movement immediately after the women comment tape came out towards Hillary and all started back towards close race/tie by mid-week.
The media spent nearly the entire day painting Trump as a crazy mad-man about his election result comment so no movement is just fine for me. But its tough to tell what day rolled off the tracking polls for impact of both so we’ll get a better idea over the next few days.
The Rasmussen poll is a three day tracker. That makes it more erratic and it will show movement before the 7 day trackers. But word of caution, it had a very rapid spike in Trumps direction yesterday. That was for data collected before the debate. When that data falls off, unless it is replaced by another really strong day, Rasmussen will tighten up. I don’t think the last debate will have a strong impact on either candidate in the short term. So I suspect Ras will show a tie or even a small Hillary lead in the next couple days. But before anyone panics, the Ras poll has been a yo yo for a few weeks. If you don’t like the results one day, just wait a day or two.
And as I type that I see Ras has closed from a 3 point Trump lead to 2. I suspect it will tighten further. Until Trump climbs up again.
Ras Trump Clinton
21-Oct 43% 41%
20-Oct 43% 40%
19-Oct 42% 42%
18-Oct 41% 42%
17-Oct 41% 43%
14-Oct 43% 41%
They are using the tools that they have. That’s all.
Shy Tory Factor means add about 2 percent to this Trump number.
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