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To: tatown

Yes they are oversampling Dems, but if they have always been oversampling Dems by those margins it means it makes an ok baseline view for trends.

This is what the USC is great for.. Because it’s sampling the same folks daily it is a far better indicator of real trending of the race... It may not give you the accurate result but it is an excellent poll to see the real trends not the invented ones by manipulating samples.

I can make any poll say anything I want by manipulating sample and questions... But if I have the same sample daily and the same questions daily I am producing a far more reliable baseline for trend analysis. Downside is I am stuck with whatever bias my original sample group may have had, but I am far better at offering real insight to what is really going on.


24 posted on 10/21/2016 5:25:21 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

Do you think this poll will improve as the days pass for trump since the debate? I’m praying so hard that God will miraculously open the eyes of the people to favor trump and shut their ears and eyes to the evil mediapukes


26 posted on 10/21/2016 5:40:44 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: HamiltonJay

There is an interesting trend in this poll, although it is well within the region of statistical noise. But Hillary is closing slowly on Trump in the last three days in a four way race, and Trump is closing on Hillary in a two way race. Again, it’s all within the realm of static, but worth watching.


29 posted on 10/21/2016 5:45:10 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: HamiltonJay
"This is what the USC is great for.. Because it’s sampling the same folks daily it is a far better indicator of real trending of the race... It may not give you the accurate result but it is an excellent poll to see the real trends not the invented ones by manipulating samples."

NOW there is a problem with the LA Times poll in that the responses are not as anonymous as the group may have thought.

(It's not that a 19-year old black Trump supporter in Illinois is skewing the poll, it's that the NY Times somehow found out that there IS a 19 year old black Trump supporter in Illinois.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-daybreak-poll-questions-20161013-snap-story.html

32 posted on 10/21/2016 5:48:49 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Every nation has the government it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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