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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
Looks like a graze of the storm around Jupiter\Stuart\Hobe Sound maybe up to Port St. Lucie. I think if a couple more model runs show anymore of a westward tick, we could be looking at a landfall somewhere between Palm Beach and St Lucie counties. Eyewall type winds.
Please, God, let it make a beeline for D.C.
Niece just moved to springfield georgia, 27 miles NW of savannah. She says she’s in no danger and doing little. Anyone disagree with her?
Right, though the trick in this case will be the proximity of the eye to the coast. You could argue that this could be a worst-case scenario if the eye stays right at the shoreline between the slow speed, angle, and high winds. But yeah, first you pile up the water, then yank it all back out.
A few weeks after the first moon landing, the US was hit by a category five hurricane with 190 MPH winds. Hansen tells us that temperatures were cold and CO2 was safe in 1969
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/16/the-190-mile-per-hour-winds-of-hurricane-camille/
Mathew is only at 120 mph winds and will go out to the Atlantic ocean. It will get much weaker too
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Matthew is expected to strengthen to a Cat 4
Good. I know you're relieved.
Never have been in a hurricane, just tornadoes and blizzards in the North country.
Indeed—relieved is a good description. Senile Cowboy finally relented too.
I think it will get weaker
"South Florida wants to survive #HurricaneMatthew. But we'd rather die than eat clam chowder." - @RantingOwl tweet.
http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/
Don’t forget the Gulf Stream waters are warm.
Plus add the 12mph forward motion to the wind speed on the north side of the storm.
Add to that the tidal surge which could be as high as 15 feet that would flood most of the coastal areas withing five miles of the shore, topped off with drenching rains of 20+ inches.................
Maybe the top text is, but she has coded the graphics to reflect most recent conditions. The storm track model graphic shows the most recent update as of 17:06 EDT today.
Thanks. So you’re not in a flood zone?
And exactly what do you base that on? The two best models, the GFS and the Euro, bring the eye right up the coast around West Palm Beach. And we're within 36 hours of that event, and those models do pretty good within that timeframe.
My mother-in-law is in the hospital in Palm Bay near Melbourne having just had a hip replacement...........
forward speed 12mph is almost lightning fast compared to the painfully slow creep approaching Haiti.
There are several hospitals evacuating in the coastal area.
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