If RCP isn’t hiding it, Trump’s up big league.
CO, NH, or maybe unlisted VT on gun issues
* Michigan
* Pennsylvania
* Wisconsin
If he doesn't, then this campaign was just a waste of time and energy for a lot of people. His whole focus here has been an "America first" strategy aimed at getting middle-class Democratic voters in these Rust Belt states.
If he gets no more than 266 Electoral Votes in November, then there probably isn't a single state in his column that JEB BUSH couldn't have won.
The Clinton people never envisioned having so many states to defend at this stage of the election. They’ve already poured a kazillion dollars into ads; The Donald has barely started with the media advertising, and what advertising he’s done has been positive, not bitching and smearing (Classic Clinton).
NM or CO.
Maine gets us the tie
Tough rows to hoe
When I look at the Electoral map I see Illary at 260 and Trump at 259 with only Colorado-(9), Neveda-(6) and New Hampshire-(4) as the deciding states. Both candidates need to win two of those. Interstingly, Trump can win it with NV and NH and the vote in the House of Reps - forcing the no good, lying, scum-sucking weasels like Paul Ryno to either vote for him, or say goodbye to their political careers.
That is if it is a close election. Hillary better hope it is. I don’t see any chance or her having a blow-out night, but I see a good chance of everything breaking Trump’s way the last few weeks and him getting 337 by winning all three plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
CO, NH, and WI....
I think CO, NH, PA, VA, and WI are all viable possibilities for Trump. Looking at his schedule he’s definitely spent the most time in PA and VA, but the other three may actually be better states for him to win. He’s still only made two stops in WI (none recently) and four each in CO and NH.
CO polls seem to be the ones closing the fastest. Perhaps he should really concentrate in on that state and see if he can’t take a consistent lead there. NH might also be a good state to go all in on, because it’s so small it’s bound to be fairly cheap to blanket the state with ads and build up a thorough ground game everywhere there. Each campaign stop there will also reach a larger percentage of the state’s population than in a big state like PA. I hope he works at least to an extent on winning all these states, though, just in case the ones he’s counting on don’t come through. And wouldn’t it be great if he could win over 300 EVs?
The numbers will shift because Trump is now starting to advertise. He is relying on millions of small donors and he is putting in A LOT of his own money. We want a big, clear victory. We can carry all the states that merely LEAN DEMOCRAT. This means CO, ME, MI, NH, NM, PA, WI and VA. And maybe a few surprises as well.
Just to add to what I wrote before, I really believe that WI could be the one to put him over the top if he’d just push hard for it. There are certain similarities between WI and IA, and according to the latest polls Trump has had a remarkable 12% or more swing in IA since Romney. If he could get that many Obama voters and normally non-voters to go for him in IA, I think WI is ripe terrority for new support for him, if he plays it correctly (especially with the help of Scott Brown and Reince—and no more feuding with Paul Ryno).
Hopefully, Kellyanne and his internal pollsters know more than us and will help him zero in on the best one or two possibilities to concentrate more of their efforts on.
All.
According to one poll, Trump is within six points in Illinois. If it is that close, Trump will win big on Election Night!
Yes, he is one state short, but unfortunately I don’t think Trump stands a chance in hopelessly Democratic CO, NH, PA, VA, or WI.
I think 266 is Trumps EV cieling.
Their count is off. They’re counting NM as blue, because of a poll taken in May. Meanwhile, I’ve seen at least two polls in the last couple weeks or so that have NM firmly in Trump’s column.
So, that’s it, he wins just with that. Everything else is icing on the cake.
Then, if some of these people around here want to wring their hands about whether he won the wrong way or didn’t win enough or didn’t win as much as Jeb Bush would, they’re welcome to have at it. But nobody’s going to be listening to them any more than anyone listens to the ‘Ermergerd!! Trump is such a poopypants because he said stuff and things’ bunch on Facebook.
What is going on with the PPD poll that had been referenced to on FR?
Polls are NOT news...They aren't at all. They are manipulated b.s. to try and sway the masses...
Do you in fact believe the polls???
If you look at the different EV maps put together at www.270towin.com, they all manage to elect Hillary with 272 or 273 EVs, they just disagree on which states! Some exclude Nevada, some Colorado, some New Hampshire, some Iowa. But it’s almost like none of them want to cross the line and say Hillary won’t win it.
I think we can evade having to win Michigan, Pennsylvania or Virginia if we can collect Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and either Colorado or New Hampshire. That’s the challenge, as I see it.