Near tie in RCP EV count (C 272, T 266)

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 24, 2016 | RCP

[ConquerWeMust]

Clinton has been sitting at 301 EVs for weeks in the RCP no toss up states average. Just today she is down to 272. One more state needed.

Which one? CO, NH, PA, VA, WI?

[Eccl 10:2]

Don’t spatter your better.

There are a lot of plausible scenarios where he doesn’t need to win any of those three.

[Alberta's Child]

OK -- thanks.

I see they have Nevada shown as "red," which would be a great thing because I think it's probably a tossup at best. Not that I think it's a Democratic lock, but Obama did win there twice (and by a decent margin in 2012) and the state vote is heavily skewed by the Las Vegas area. It might be the least reliable state in a presidential election, either way.

[eekitsagreek]

According to one poll, Trump is within six points in Illinois. If it is that close, Trump will win big on Election Night!

[Alberta's Child]

The good news is that he was campaigning in Pennsylvania within the last 48 hours, so he's running like he can win there.

Also, I found it very telling that Obama made a campaign appearance for Hillary Clinton last week in Philadelphia, of all places. That's one of the most heavily Democratic places in the country, and if they felt a need to trot him out there then they must really be afraid of losing PA.

[Alberta's Child]

Wow. Is that because Trump is suddenly more popular in Illinois, or because so many Democratic voters are getting gunned down in Chicago on a daily basis? :-P

[Angels27]

Yes, he is one state short, but unfortunately I don’t think Trump stands a chance in hopelessly Democratic CO, NH, PA, VA, or WI.

I think 266 is Trumps EV cieling.

[FenwickBabbitt]

Don’t forget IA. Trump has tremendously higher support there than Romney. That’s the state that Trump is outpacing Romney’s results the most.

[map]

"I have said for weeks that Trump really needs to win at least two of these three:

* Michigan * Pennsylvania * Wisconsin"

Any one of those three and Trump will be well over 270.

[mrs9x]

Colorado and Virginia are not hopelessly Democratic.

[af_vet_1981]

If he gets no more than 266 Electoral Votes in November, then there probably isn't a single state in his column that JEB BUSH couldn't have won.

I don't think Jeb Bush could win Ohio this year; the others Trump has so far he would also get.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Their count is off. They’re counting NM as blue, because of a poll taken in May. Meanwhile, I’ve seen at least two polls in the last couple weeks or so that have NM firmly in Trump’s column.

So, that’s it, he wins just with that. Everything else is icing on the cake.

Then, if some of these people around here want to wring their hands about whether he won the wrong way or didn’t win enough or didn’t win as much as Jeb Bush would, they’re welcome to have at it. But nobody’s going to be listening to them any more than anyone listens to the ‘Ermergerd!! Trump is such a poopypants because he said stuff and things’ bunch on Facebook.

[healy61]

This is odd. A friend went to the Republican headquarters yesterday in our county and was told Michigan does not have Trump signs. He called the Trump campaign and was told that was not true, that signs are available in the Counties. He thinks there may be an underhanded lack of support in our county. I’m going to stop by Monday and ask also. Is Trump being played down by Republicans in Michigan Counties?

[theoilpainter]

What is going on with the PPD poll that had been referenced to on FR?

[LS]

I think IA was counted, but who knows?

[FenwickBabbitt]

You folks must think a lot more of Jebbie’s abilities as a candidate than I do. I doubt he would have gotten any more states than Romney—perhaps not even his homestate of FL, where he just isn’t that popular. I don’t think he would win OH, IA, or NV and he wouldn’t be running nearly as close as Trump is in several other states imo. Romney was a bad campaigner, but he was still better than Jebbie in that regard.

[LS]

I think IA was counted, but who knows?

[af_vet_1981]

I should have written that Bush would get all the Romney states, North Carolina, and Florida. I don’t think he would get Iowa, Ohio, or Nevada.

[FenwickBabbitt]

Oh, I see. I thought you were listing all of the states that Trump is winning that Romney lost, but I realize now you were only correcting the other poster.

[Alberta's Child]

What county was that? I think a lot of exurban and rural areas in MI are already solidly Republican.

[oblomov]

VT would be delicious. It was once a rock-ribbed Republican state. It went GOP in every election from 1856 through 1960. Since 1992, it has been an uncontested Democrat state.