Posted on 09/24/2016 4:51:10 PM PDT by ConquerWeMust
I think Trump’s political stature is much better if he LOSES Virginia and WINS two of those Rust Belt states. He’s running as an outsider, which means getting “flyover country” states while losing “Northeast Corridor” states will give him a much stronger governing mandate.
Romney won Florida in 2012, so those 29 EVs are included in the 235 I used as the starting point in Post #15.
Oops... that should be 261, with OH 279.
Win those two states along with the 232 Mitt won in 2012, Trump goes to the WH.
NV, CO, VA and NH would be icing on the electoral cake.
The numbers will shift because Trump is now starting to advertise. He is relying on millions of small donors and he is putting in A LOT of his own money. We want a big, clear victory. We can carry all the states that merely LEAN DEMOCRAT. This means CO, ME, MI, NH, NM, PA, WI and VA. And maybe a few surprises as well.
I was basing it upon the RCP No Tossup map referenced by this post.
Mitt lost FL narrowly in 2012 and also lost OH.
If he had won those two states, he would be running for re-election today.
Trump is going to win them and that gets him to the WH.
To take those rust belt states, blue collar voters have to come out in droves for Trump. If that happens, I think they will carry him over the top in Virginia as well, and we can all watch Larry Sabato explode on live TV.
This is what I think a lot of people are forgetting. He has been outspent 50-1 and has her in a draw. 3 debates, and a late advertising push in swing states coming up. He’s in good shape provided the debates go well.
Just to add to what I wrote before, I really believe that WI could be the one to put him over the top if he’d just push hard for it. There are certain similarities between WI and IA, and according to the latest polls Trump has had a remarkable 12% or more swing in IA since Romney. If he could get that many Obama voters and normally non-voters to go for him in IA, I think WI is ripe terrority for new support for him, if he plays it correctly (especially with the help of Scott Brown and Reince—and no more feuding with Paul Ryno).
Hopefully, Kellyanne and his internal pollsters know more than us and will help him zero in on the best one or two possibilities to concentrate more of their efforts on.
I stand corrected on everything I've posted here, since I now see that I was basing my calculations on a website showing 2012 projected results rather than actual results.
Let me go back and start all over again ...
LOL.
I don’t disagree with your analysis, but I think New Mexico is a bridge too far. Gary Johnson will really pull down the Trump vote.
Sorry — Post #30 was for you. LOL.
I just find it so hard to believe that someone who has zero point zero enthusiasm can even remotely be in the running
Early voting in FL is heavily R + a reversal from four years ago.
There appears to be zero enthusiasm for Hillary and in an election, turnout matters.
All.
If you take Romney's 206 EVs from 2012 and add Florida's 29, you get the 235 I used as my starting point earlier in this thread. So my math was correct even though my starting assumption was incorrect.
I'm still not sure where you got your 232, though.
Romney lost FL OH CO and NV as well as ME2.
I think that puts Trump at 280+, not counting NM where he leads.
Romney lost FL OH CO and NV as well as ME2.
I think that puts Trump at 280+, not counting NM where he leads.
Folks...forget it...Trump landslide victory!!! Trump will easily win Texas, Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania. He will also easily win Arizona, Nevada, New Hampahire, Virginia & North Carolina. Hillary Clinton will be lucky to carry eight states!!!
ME2=the win, but he will take CO and NV; probably take NM; 50/50 he takes PA, MI, ME, VA, and WI.
All in all, he is pretty sure to win, and has a good chance at a blowout.
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