Posted on 09/15/2016 3:56:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With the presidential election less than eight weeks away, the race is too close to call in Virginia, according to a poll released Thursday.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton held a 3-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely voters, but the spread is within the margin of error, according to a telephone survey commissioned by the University of Mary Washingtons Center for Leadership and Media Studies.
Clintons lead was wider 5 percentage points when the pollsters included the results of all registered voters surveyed, not just those who indicate theyre likely to vote Nov. 8.
Voters remain unhappy with both major party candidates. Sixty percent have unfavorable views of both and most dont consider either to be honest and trustworthy, the survey found.
Among likely voters, Clinton was favored by 40 percent, Trump by 37 percent and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson 8 percent, with all other candidates together getting 4 percent. Nine percent of those polled were undecided or wouldnt say.
The landline and cellphone survey of 685 likely voters, conducted Sept. 6-12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for results involving likely voters. The margin drops to 3.9 percentage points when calculating the results with all 852 registered voters who were contacted.
The Mary Washington poll contrasts with the conclusions of two independent websites that aggregate the results of several polls.
RealClearPolitics.com and FiveThirtyEight.com, which do not include the new poll, say Clinton is leading in Virginia. For example, FiveThirtyEight projected that Clinton leads Trump 44 percent to 38 percent among likely voters.
The new Virginia poll also reported that likely voters gave Clinton higher marks than Trump for leadership qualities and the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president.
Although the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that average household incomes rose 5.2 percent nationally in 2015 the largest one-year increase since at least the 1960s most of those polled apparently werent feeling it. The same Census data showed that Virginias median income dropped almost 8 percent. It went from $66,231 in 2014 to $61,486 last year when adjusted for inflation.
Those surveyed were almost evenly split between those who felt the economy was worse than a year ago, better than last year or about the same.
I like this map!
If Trump can take VA then the race is over, and we can say “President Trump!”
Yeah, but the state’s population is concentrated in NoVa, Richmond, and Norfolf/Virginia Beach.
Ditto here. I commute every workday from my home in Gloucester County to Suffolk. At lunchtime, I often drive through nearby Portsmouth - a majority black democrat stronghold. Once Bernie went down in flames I have not seen a single pro-dem sign for president. Contrast that with the panting enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Hillary will have her share of liberal support, but there is no evidence of enthusiasm for her whatsoever. In my county of Gloucester - a conservative area - only Trump signs are present. One would think he’s running unopposed.
This all may change in the final 50 days, but I doubt it. Virginia voters seem to be waking up.
No worries about VA Beach. It’s generally conservative. NOVA and Richmond are the biggest concerns.
If yard signs in my area are an indicator, Trump will win in Maryland and Delaware...have yet to see a Hillary sign in either state, but tons of Trump signs.
SHRILLARY giving marching orders to the communists in the Congressional “hispanic” caucus.
Looks like she is wearing a mexican blanket.
Things are shaping up nicely.
I've said all along that Trump has to win all of the states Romney won in 2012, then work from there. He almost certainly can't win without Florida's 29 electoral votes and Ohio's 18. That would put him at 253. Add Iowa as the state most likely to turn from "blue" to "red," and he's up to 259.
I always assumed that Clinton would win Virginia once Kaine was added to the ticket, which meant Trump would need at least one big state that is traditionally Democratic (Pennsylvania or Michigan most likely) to put him over the top.
Trump will win PA before he wins NJ, NY or RI.
He’s a weak faggot.
Probably the reason.
Weird lisping MF.
BOBBLEHEADHILLARY croaks and its spittle lips in the WH.
NH and Maine's 3 EVs are a much more reasonable guess to turn red.
I think for Trump to win in Virginia, the libs up here will have to stay home. I work with a lot of libs and not a one likes Hillary and there is zero enthusiasm towards her. Trump criticisms have been muted, which is telling. I think they stay home and Trump wins Virginia.
It really depends on turnout. Western Virginia, southwest, and Southside have to come out strong for Trump to overcome NOVA.
Trump up 4 in CO now (Emerson), only diwn 3 in MI, and darn it, I saw an AWESOME NJ poll (tied?) someplace but can’t find it now.
The other possibility is Trump goes directly to them a la Bob McDonnell on 2009 with a straight economic message. McDonnell came very close to 50% of even the Hispanic vote with that approach, and went on to win the state - a year after Obama won here in 2008 - by an 18% margin.
RI - polls from August show Trump 5pts behind
NJ - Christie will deliver
NY - Rudy G. will Deliver enough votes in outer Boros & LI to put Trump over The Edge. Trump getting 20% of NYC Blacks
Same ploy Obama used: register college students from solid blue states in VA. VA is chock full of college students from NY/NJ/New England whose home states are fairly safe for Hillary! So they convince the students how valuable their vote is here. Gotta counteract those rednecks, ya know!
Yes, you are correct. McDonnell ran a masterful campaign. Anyone running for office in Virginia should study his campaign.
Just remember - get out there and vote - because if the election isn’t close - they can’t cheat.
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