[Dave W]

One out of four voters in Virginia are in Northern Virginia. Fairfax County itself has 1 out of 8. The rule of thumb is that the Republican must get at least 40% in Fairfax County if there is any hope of winning the state.

I think for Trump to win in Virginia, the libs up here will have to stay home. I work with a lot of libs and not a one likes Hillary and there is zero enthusiasm towards her. Trump criticisms have been muted, which is telling. I think they stay home and Trump wins Virginia.

[mrs9x]

It really depends on turnout. Western Virginia, southwest, and Southside have to come out strong for Trump to overcome NOVA.

[ScottinVA]

The other possibility is Trump goes directly to them a la Bob McDonnell on 2009 with a straight economic message. McDonnell came very close to 50% of even the Hispanic vote with that approach, and went on to win the state - a year after Obama won here in 2008 - by an 18% margin.