Posted on 09/15/2016 12:55:23 PM PDT by Red Steel
Title: "Trump Leads Clinton Nationally and in Four States Polled; 3 of 4 Senate Incumbents Look Safe; Pneumonia News Hurting Clinton"
BOSTON, MA - In the first national poll conducted by Emerson College during this general election season, the presidential race is looking like a dead heat, with Donald Trump edging out Hillary Clinton 43% to 41%, well within the poll’s 3.4% margin of error (MOE). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holds 9% of the popular vote, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein gets 2%.
Eight in 10 (81%) of voters surveyed nationally were aware that Clinton was recently diagnosed with pneumonia, a revelation that appears to be hurting her with some voters.
In four state-level polls released at the same time as the national poll, Trump leads by 4 points in Colorado (42% to 38%), 6 points in Georgia (45% to 39%), 13 points in Missouri (47% to 34%) and has a blowout-level lead in Arkansas, 57% to 29%.
U.S. Senate races in three of the four states polled show the incumbents with a solid lead over their challengers. In Arkansas, GOP Senator John Boozman has a 14-point edge over Democrat Conner Eldridge, 44% to 30%. Georgia Republican Johnny Isakson leads Jim Barksdale 48% to 32%, and Colorado’s Democratic incumbent, Michael Bennet is running 7 points ahead of Darryl Glenn, 46% to 39%. Missouri is the exception, with Democrat Jason Kander holding a 2-point edge over GOP incumbent Roy Blunt, 42% to 40%.
(Excerpt) Read more at theecps.com ...
Yes, Clinton had a double digit lead in the polls and has lost that lead. One can argue those polls would not reflect the vote on Election Day but it is irrational to claim those polls did not exist, or that those polls were inherently wrong then yet are right now.
bumpity bump bump bump...
Opinion savvy poll
NICE !
My...My...My "Arkansas", by the people who know her best...down 57% to 29%.
This says Emerson?
No it is irrational to believe that gas lit polling that showed a woman who is completely unpopular with absolutely zero enthusiasm or organic support is or was ever going to get anywhere near 50% of the vote.
Stop being so easily manipulated. Use your noodle. Her Husband who was far more popular and supported could not even manage 50% support in his re election campaign in 1996 with a booming economy at his back.
This is a woman who could not put away the weakest candidate I’ve ever seen in Bernie and Lost to the most inexperienced and empty resume’d person to ever ever run for the White House in 2008.
Anyone can commission and publish a poll, I personally have done it. Just because a poll says something doesn’t make it true. This reporting of polls as though polls are news is in and of itself a form of propoganda and it is amazing how many people fall for it time and again.
Hillary has never had momentum or the lead in this race. Trump is the only person who can take down Trump. The closest thing Hillary has had to any lead was whe Trump foolishly let himself get distracted and bogged down in the Kahn nonsense. This stalled his momentum for a few weeks and had he not corrected could have cost him the election but he adjusted quickly and has since stayed on message, and once again has regained his momentum.
The best this race ever was at was a wash, at Trumps lowest point. Hillary has never had momentum, not for one minute in this race, and short of Trump self destructing she won’t. There is no enthusiasm or organic support for her anywhere. The most liberal and die hard dems can’t even offer a reason to vote for her, they have no enthusiasm for their choice at all.
Momentum other than a few weeks in July and August has been with Trump since last year. To try to assert this race was Hillary’s to lose is just naive, and that’s what any poll suggesting she was anywhere in the upper 40s to 50s while trum was stuck in the high 30s or low 40s was asserting and it’s nonsense.
Hillary has a functional max in the low 40s, she will get the voter who will vote D no matter what, and that’s it. That’s all she’s ever had. Nothing she does or says will change that.. The only path that has ever existed for her was to keep Trumps support below that line.. Dejected enough of his supporters so they don’t show up or undermine his support so folks stay home.
That is the only tactic they have, and it’s why they can do nothing more than just keep calling him names hoping it will work.
Wow! Well said. Great post IMO.
Expresses the reality very clearly. Thank you.
Probabilistically, Trump gained 17 electoral votes this week, and his chance of reaching 270 increased by 7% to 36%.
-PJ
Is the NM +10 the poly NM poll?
I have never thought it would be close and it’s looking less close every day.
The poll you mention is not in my model.
-PJ
Ipsos or Reuters I think
I think I'll wait for a more traditional poll.
-PJ
Ipsos or Reuters I think
Oh come on! Play the lib game of using the only poll that makes your point.
I can use it but I need an MOE. Without one, I will default to 4.5%. Even with that, this poll will be beyond it at +10%, but it's long duration will weight it about the same as the PPP poll that is Clinton +9%.
BTW, the PPP poll is also missing a MOE, so I'm defaulting it, too. Therefore, these two polls will cancel and New Mexico will net to Toss-Up for now.
538 is rife with Ipsos polls, but RCP is slow to include them for some reason. I'll add it to the model tonight and see what it does when averaged with PPP.
-PJ
“We have a 2-point race . . . In JOISEY!”
If PIAPS is only up 2 in Joisey she is deep trouble
The fun begins at 7 PM Eastern on election night. My eye will be on Florida, Georgia and Virginia, if they get called quickly for Trump it’ll be pretty much game over.
I wish I could find the late FReeper Common Tator’s article about working in a newsroom on Election Day 1980. They had settled in for a long night with the election being “too close to call” and then suddenly Carter conceded.
Carter’s internal polling told the truth.
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