Trump Gets Modest Boost in Ohio After Convention (PPP OH: Trump 42, Cankles 39)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 7/25/2016 | Public Policy Polling

[LS]

PPP's new Ohio poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 42-39 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Voters who support either Johnson or Stein or are undecided in the full field go to Clinton by an 18 point margin if they had to pick between just Clinton and Trump, making the head to head match up a 45/45 tie.

[Gideon7]

Trump hasn’t trailed in PA in last 2 polls (lead and tie). His lead in bellwether Luzerne Co is huge. He’ll win PA.

Philly precincts will simply 'adjust' their turnout to compensate. They will crank it from the last election's 110% up to 125%, whatever it takes.

[WashingtonFire]

If Trump loses Ohio on a knife-edge you can bet your bottom dollar that Scumbag will be behind it.

Kasich will actively work to stop Trump winning Ohio. Trump’s ground game will need to be strong and he will need his damn best lawyers in the state.

[madison10]

Michigan.

[Gulf War One]

Is this a poll of likely voters or simply registered voters? What is the D/R/I breakdown?

The link is slow.

[Raycpa]

Even better, the poll is registered voters not likely.

[colorado tanker]

This is big news, especially in light of Trump’s public feud with the Ohio Governor who at least at one time was popular.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“Man, that’s a lot of undecideds.”

Or, ‘man that’s a lot of people afraid to say they’re voting for Trump because of the ridiculous hateful responses from the left.’

[JPJones]

“Michigan.”

If Trump wins MI, then he wins.

[Voluntaryist]

I could not agree more!

PS - You’re reply kinda matches your user name lol

[JPJones]

“Wow that’s scary ...I hope it’s doable...blue states are the hardest to win.”

A little bit. If he wins FL, OH, and IA but not PA.

If that happens and he wins NV and NH, (and all other states go the way they did last election) then it’s a TIE, 269-269. That would be funny!

Anyone know what happens then?

[Nifster]

He got a flu 6% bump.....Better than Bush 2004, McCain 2008, or Mittens in 2012

[JPJones]

“His lead in bellwether Luzerne Co is huge. He’ll win PA.”

I hope so. Ballot-box stuffing worries me in PA

“He has yet to lead in VA that I am aware of, though it’s about 2-3 points.”

Yeah, Northern VA, heavily populated is ALL fedgov workers, so he’s not going to win VA.

[Tuxedo]

PPP is a Dem poll also

[Artemis Webb]

I’d call it modest. If Hillary led in the same states by the same numbers many here would be calling it “an insignificant lead” or a “dead heat”. I’m honestly wondering though, given the chaos at the Dem Convention, if Hillary will receive a bump at all.

[jjsheridan5]

Trump is not going to win VA.

Trump is going to win VA. Easily. This whole "we can't win VA" thing has gotten completely out-of-hand. It is a somewhat difficult state to win. It is not California.

Ken Cuccinelli almost defeated Terry McAuliffe despite having to run against both the Democrat and Republican parties. It is a state that leans Democrat. But not by much. Hillary will have little chance here, and Trump should take it with little effort, given how poorly she is doing nationally.

[jjsheridan5]

Yeah, Northern VA, heavily populated is ALL fedgov workers, so he’s not going to win VA.

Yes, and that was why Trump had no chance of winning the primary in Virginia, and lost so badly to Cruz, as predicted. Oh wait. That what was just what we were told, not what actually happened. What actually happened, was that Trump won VA.

Virginia is a large state. The northern counties are large, and very democratic. But it is still a large state, the rest of which is solidly Republican.

[LS]

I agree that generally this would be “modest.” But 1) I think they are still cookin’ the samples with heavy Ds, and 2) they are still using “registered” voters sprinkled with adults. So this is probably +5, minimum.

[JPJones]

“Yes, and that was why Trump had no chance of winning the primary in Virginia, and lost so badly to Cruz, as predicted. Oh wait. That what was just what we were told, not what actually happened. What actually happened, was that Trump won VA. “

He did, he just squeaked by Rubio. Cruz wasn’t even in the running.

“Virginia is a large state. The northern counties are large, and very democratic. But it is still a large state, the rest of which is solidly Republican.”

It’s going to hinge on where those 300,000 Rubio votes go.

[JPJones]

“But not by much. Hillary will have little chance here, and Trump should take it with little effort, given how poorly she is doing nationally. “

I hope you’re right.

Republicans got over 200,000 more votes than democrats did.

But that includes 300,000 for Rubio and 150,000 for Kasich.

Who are those voters going to vote for in the the general?

[jjsheridan5]

He did, he just squeaked by Rubio.

Trump was supposed to have no chance, however. As we were told, ad nauseum. The point is that Virginia is not nearly as "blue" as people make it out to be. Like Colorado, it has seen a significant population shift over the last decade or two, which has turned it into a state that leans Democrat. But it has not turned it into a state which is some kind of Democrat lock. Yet many people act as though it is. The same people saying that Hillary will win VA easily, are the same people saying that Trump had no chance, and are the same people saying that McAuliffe would win by double digits, and then some. Don't believe it. Virginia is a swing state, and up for grabs (albeit one which leans the wrong way). It is not a Democrat lock.