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What to Expect in Utah and Arizona on Tuesday
PJ Media ^ | TYLER O'NEIL

Posted on 03/21/2016 10:07:00 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts

Two more states vote on Tuesday, Utah and Arizona. After Donald Trump's big win last week, many might expect him to win big here, too. That might happen in Arizona, but don't bet on the Donald winning Utah.

Trump leads the polls in Arizona, the biggest remaining winner-take-all state in the GOP primary -- with 58 delegates up for grabs. Arizona has a closed primary, however, which means that only registered Republicans can vote -- a style that has tended to help Ted Cruz. Word on the ground in the state gives Cruz and Trump nearly equal odds of winning.

"I think Cruz will pull the upset," Kurt Davis, a neutral Republican in Arizona and close confidante of Senator John McCain, told The Hill. "He's the only candidate with any kind of organization out here and they have him positioned to spring the upset. They just have to deliver." In the two polls released this month, Trump leads Cruz by 12 and 14 points, but much of Marco Rubio's old support has swung behind the Texas senator. Cruz may have a fighting chance in Arizona only because Rubio dropped out last week.

Two more states vote on Tuesday, Utah and Arizona. After Donald Trump's big win last week, many might expect him to win big here, too. That might happen in Arizona, but don't bet on the Donald winning Utah.

Trump leads the polls in Arizona, the biggest remaining winner-take-all state in the GOP primary -- with 58 delegates up for grabs. Arizona has a closed primary, however, which means that only registered Republicans can vote -- a style that has tended to help Ted Cruz. Word on the ground in the state gives Cruz and Trump nearly equal odds of winning.

"I think Cruz will pull the upset,"...

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Texas; US: Utah
KEYWORDS: 2016election; arizona; cruz; election2016; johnkasich; kasich; newyork; ohio; primaries; primary; tedcruz; texas; trump; utah; votecruzgethillary
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To: Ingtar

Hardly. Are you from Miami....or even Florida?


21 posted on 03/21/2016 10:26:07 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: 20yearsofinternet

The Donald is not nearly as unpopular with the rank and file Republicans as certain partisan spokespeople seen to think. There is this belief that “only” 35-40% are pro-Trump, a figure I question immediately. There are still competing candidates for the nomination, and the jury is still out about whether any of the others is particularly better than than The Donald in terms of both electability, and of leadership should the job happen to be bestowed upon him.

There is this continued assertion that The Donald “can’t win” in a toe-to-toe contest with Herself, perhaps the WORST candidate in terms of likability and judgment the Left-dominated Democrat party could have come up with.

Herself is the sullen ex-wife who engineered a massive support settlement, and is now being uncommonly nasty and vindictive as attempts to increase the settlement have come up on the docket.

Gloria Swanson, gone on long after her expiration date.


22 posted on 03/21/2016 10:29:13 AM PDT by alloysteel (If I considered the consequences of my actions, I would rarely do anything.)
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To: Mollypitcher1

Lived there about 16 years, but not now. Look at the last elections and primaries; the results there tend to be all over the place. It is definitely no longer a reliable conservative or even GOP role model.


23 posted on 03/21/2016 10:30:08 AM PDT by Ingtar (60.2% del allocated. Trump 55.9%, Cruz 33.4% Kasich 11.8 of req for nomination 3/16)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Florida. More complex than portrayed. Closed primary, but state has a large illegal population and a significant number of Midwest retirees. AZ is similar. Cruz gets the Mormon vote in Gilbert and up north along the CO border, but hardpressed beyond those two areas.


24 posted on 03/21/2016 10:35:30 AM PDT by ameribbean expat
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To: Ingtar

It is definitely no longer a reliable conservative or even GOP role model.
.......................................................
Floridians voted AGAINST the GOP ROLE MODEL which has become the GOPe. Florida WILL vote TRUMP in 2016 as new registrations and switchovers from Dems and Independents will prove.


25 posted on 03/21/2016 10:42:46 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: Mollypitcher1
Because amongst Republican-leaners Cruz has higher positives and lower negatives than Trump, so as the field narrows it naturally favors Ted Cruz.


26 posted on 03/21/2016 10:52:42 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts

Momentum from Iowa favors Cruz

South Carolina favors Cruz

Southern evangelicals favor Cruz

SEC primaries favor Cruz

Debates favor Cruz

If we can just have closed primaries, then THAT will favor Cruz

Rubio will definitely take down Trump, and then Cruz will romp!


Are there any other bits of myth and woo that I forgot?


27 posted on 03/21/2016 10:58:25 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: GodGunsGuts

No doubt Cruz wins Utah, but Trump wins Ariz big.


28 posted on 03/21/2016 10:59:56 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SandRat

Would you vote for Hillary over Trump?


29 posted on 03/21/2016 11:01:09 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: napscoordinator
I doubt Trump is able to keep Cruz under 50%, it isn't a primary, it is a caucus state.
30 posted on 03/21/2016 11:01:18 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Wonder who McCain is voting for?


31 posted on 03/21/2016 11:05:32 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Only they can beat Hillary, but for some reason they can't beat him)
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To: TheStickman

It will be split, Cruz takes UT and Trump AZ.


32 posted on 03/21/2016 11:32:23 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: SandRat

“As a Loyal Arizona resident I would not vote for Trump to be the city street sweeper.”

I guess you’re only trying to protect your job, right?


33 posted on 03/21/2016 11:32:34 AM PDT by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: VanDeKoik

But Cruz would creamed in the general if I am not mistaken.


34 posted on 03/21/2016 11:33:40 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: vette6387
I have no Job, I'm a 67 year old Retiree and Grand-Pa, that's job enough.
35 posted on 03/21/2016 11:36:06 AM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Mollypitcher1

///But the field is down to three, which favors Ted Cruz///

Why and How?

The Cruz folks think that since Trump wins primaries with less than 50% and there are no more candidates to split the remainder, then Cruz wins. I could see this logic a month ago but not anymore for 2 big reasons.

It’s too late for Cruz. There aren’t enough states left for him to get to 1237.

Also the nature of the remaining states are different. They are in the North where Cruz does not do well.

Checkmate is about 3 moves away. Most Grandmasters would concede at this point but Cruz apparently wants to drag this out to the bitter end.


36 posted on 03/21/2016 11:37:01 AM PDT by Ceebass
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To: GodGunsGuts

Utah GOP leadership is as nanny state establishment as it gets.


37 posted on 03/21/2016 11:39:08 AM PDT by Hoffer Rand (Bear His image. Bring His message. Be the Church.)
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To: SandRat

“I have no Job, I’m a 67 year old Retiree and Grand-Pa, that’s job enough.”

Well, I’m 6 months past 75 and I still manage my own commercial real estate (including doing all the maintenance).


38 posted on 03/21/2016 11:40:18 AM PDT by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: Biggirl

He doesn’t even have a national plan to win. I think he just assumed that he would get everyone Romney did + evangelicals that didnt vote for Romney because he was a Mormon.

Considering the past few days, and Ted’s embracing of Beck, the irony of that should not be lost on anyone.


39 posted on 03/21/2016 11:43:51 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: GodGunsGuts

Trump will win AZ. If Cruz does not win Utah, then he’s done, with no path to winning.


40 posted on 03/21/2016 11:44:43 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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