Posted on 03/18/2016 7:32:49 AM PDT by Kaslin
For seven months, Republicans -- myself included -- have argued against the data. The data showed that Donald Trump would be a viable candidate. Many of us presumed he would eventually fade. Many of us presumed he would eventually burn out his supporters with his gaffes, waffling and walk backs.
What many of us misunderstood was Republican voter anger. There are a lot of angry people out there and they are flocking to Donald Trump. They have good reason to be angry. Washington politicians, particularly Republicans, have broken promise after promise. People in Washington seem to be doing quite well while the nation suffers.
Those of us who were skeptical of Trump could not comprehend that voters were so angry they would align with a man who actually has profited from the system the voters hate. But many of Trump's voters are perfectly fine with Trump as a flawed vessel, so long as he burns Washington to the ground, which they are convinced he will do. Ask a dozen Trump voters why they support Trump and you will get a dozen different answers. But each will end with a rebuke to Washington.
The problem now, as Trump appears more and more likely to be the Republican nominee, is the data. This time it is not Trump skeptics arguing about the data. It is Trump supporters doing so. They find themselves in the ironic position of arguing that the very same data set that showed Trump's rise also shows he cannot beat Hillary Clinton. They want the first half of the data to be true, while hoping the other half of the very same data is false.
The data does not work that way. The polls that showed Trump winning the Republican nomination also show that he cannot beat Clinton. In 19 of the 20 past polls, Trump consistently trailed Clinton by around eight points.
Certainly polling can change, but therein lies the rub for Trump. Trump performs remarkably well with blue-collar white men. He performs terribly with college educated white men, women of any background, black voters, Hispanic voters, Asian voters -- pretty much everyone other than blue-collar white men.
For Trump to make inroads with those voters, he risks alienating his core. If he wants to build a Hispanic coalition, he is going to have to walk away from his wall. If he walks away from his wall, he is going to see his voters walk away from him.
On top of that, only a quarter of voters in the polling believe Trump is trustworthy. In fact, Trump is actually the only candidate running for president viewed as less trustworthy than Clinton. On top of that, is the only candidate with higher unfavorable ratings than Hillary Clinton.
Beyond that, take the exit polling from North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Missouri. All are swing states. The exit polling data from those states show that fully one-third of Republican voters would not vote for Trump in a general election. Of voters who rejected Trump so far, that number goes up to 40 percent of Republicans. Hillary Clinton has no such problem with the Democrats. Virtually all Democrats would support her in the general election.
Trump voters, to make a plausible case for him in November, have to now discard all the data they have used thus far to declare him a credible candidate. They have to ignore all the polling that Trump championed for so long himself. A Trump nomination will bring about a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Republicans face a problem. Because so many of their voters would not turn out to support Trump, they need a third party candidate if Trump is the nominee. Someone will have to run for president to motivate a Republican turn out, if only to get voters to show up for down ballot races. A Trump nomination does not just guarantee a Hillary Clinton presidency, but also makes it likely the GOP loses legislative seats at the state and national level.
Trump voters who disagree are only arguing with the very data that shows Trump will be the Republican nominee. The only way to avoid it is to avoid making Trump the Republican presidential nominee.
Erick Erickson is a shill for losers and has spent the last year with all of Washington running Trump into the ground as everything from a madman to a demonic figure from one of the levels of hell itself. NO OTHER republican candidate has come even close to being attacked 24/7/365 like that.
And Erickson wants us to look at Trump’s “data”.
He continues being on the wrong side of clear thinking, because he knows his gravy train is coming to an end.
He is also on the wrong side of “data” still. The ONLY candidate with a mathematical chance of securing the nomination is Donald Trump.
I fully expect Erickson to come out in support of Clinton.
That will tell us where he has actually been all these years and who he has actually supported....along with his other pals in shilldom.
His blog is appropriately name: Red State. In Russian ‘Pravda”. Erik is a jerk.
Polling for the national election at this point is rather iffy. I think Trump can beat Hillary because the general level of discontent amongst the so-called “moderates” is at an all-time high. Hillary has a firm foundation of around 30 percent or so, and unless the center breaks hugely for her I don’t think she’s got a prayer of winning, and I don’t think the center is going to break hugely for her. Just my opinion.
Yeah, the Children of the Bern were probably PLEASED AS PUNCH at the way the Clinton campaign stole Missouri out from under Bernie.
The dumb bee-yotch should have just let it go. But, NOOOOO - her campaign just had to play the "late Kansas City precincts" card. To show Bernie what's what.
Shoit like that is going to backfire on her. He'll end up running third party, and the Children will zealously go with him.
Surveys are not data.
Erik Erickson is trying to start a third party in 2016 to assure that the election is won by the Democrats.
That fact explains most of what he says.
It was never his blog. He just worked there. They fired him in January. Since then he has become more and more desperate and deranged.
He is currently trying to create a third party to take votes away from Republicans and assure the Democrats win.
Legal Hispanics tend to resent illegal ones. The illegals and legals coming the last two decades are of a different type than those previously.
I hear the disdain expressed often in Arizona.
Yep that is him. GOPE AstroTurf pretending to be a “Grass roots Religious Conservative”.
He went right from Rubio cheerleader to 3rd party advocate while Ted Cruz is exactly everything Erickson CLAIMS to stand for.
The evidence I see: He never says a peep about any dishonesty done against him or his candidacy. He never wants to talk about her obvious sliminess, and how the rest of the party elites want to walk her in. I'm not certain he even said a word about winning New Hampshire decisively, and getting an incredibly low number of delegates. Iowa, where he clearly got shafted by dishonest tricks.
In all of this, he appears to be there for the ride, not really wanting to win, just hanging in there like a good foot soldier.
I think he's going to give in graciously, endorse her, and get some kind of big pay day for keeping the youngsters on the plantation.
"I once called a Supreme Court Justice a 'Goat fucking child molester.' Now I'm forming a third party because Donald Trump doesn't share my values."
Great, more advice from a TDS sufferer who wants to go third party.
Ericsson is probably correct.
The ongoing notion that it is somehow illegal to discuss this matter at free republic is absurd.
Trump is not a dictator. We can disagree and criticize his viability.
The data Erickson forgets is that no other candidate can get 1237 delegates except Trump.
He ignores that he and his media hatchetmen have been attacking Trump around the clock for months and themselves creating this negative image.
And he ignores that at this point prior to the election, Reagan was just as badly down to Carter for EXACTLY the same reason....his own side was tearing him down.
Erickson is a hypocrite. Since he far less skilled than most other “conservative talking heads” his gravy train will be one of the first that grinds to a halt.
According to the data they would both beat Hillary.
I wonder how well Cruz would do if the media attacked him like they have attacked Trump? Trump has been attacked by everyone - the government, including POTUS & the Pentagon, Congress, including Speaker of the House, the Pope, the media... I am impressed how well Trump does in the general election polls.
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