The data Erickson forgets is that no other candidate can get 1237 delegates except Trump.
He ignores that he and his media hatchetmen have been attacking Trump around the clock for months and themselves creating this negative image.
And he ignores that at this point prior to the election, Reagan was just as badly down to Carter for EXACTLY the same reason....his own side was tearing him down.
Cruz can get to 1237
Even Kasich can get to 1237 because there are more than 1237 delegates left.