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Arguing With Data
Townhall.com ^ | March 18, 2016 | Erick Erickson

Posted on 03/18/2016 7:32:49 AM PDT by Kaslin

For seven months, Republicans -- myself included -- have argued against the data. The data showed that Donald Trump would be a viable candidate. Many of us presumed he would eventually fade. Many of us presumed he would eventually burn out his supporters with his gaffes, waffling and walk backs.

What many of us misunderstood was Republican voter anger. There are a lot of angry people out there and they are flocking to Donald Trump. They have good reason to be angry. Washington politicians, particularly Republicans, have broken promise after promise. People in Washington seem to be doing quite well while the nation suffers.

Those of us who were skeptical of Trump could not comprehend that voters were so angry they would align with a man who actually has profited from the system the voters hate. But many of Trump's voters are perfectly fine with Trump as a flawed vessel, so long as he burns Washington to the ground, which they are convinced he will do. Ask a dozen Trump voters why they support Trump and you will get a dozen different answers. But each will end with a rebuke to Washington.

The problem now, as Trump appears more and more likely to be the Republican nominee, is the data. This time it is not Trump skeptics arguing about the data. It is Trump supporters doing so. They find themselves in the ironic position of arguing that the very same data set that showed Trump's rise also shows he cannot beat Hillary Clinton. They want the first half of the data to be true, while hoping the other half of the very same data is false.

The data does not work that way. The polls that showed Trump winning the Republican nomination also show that he cannot beat Clinton. In 19 of the 20 past polls, Trump consistently trailed Clinton by around eight points.

Certainly polling can change, but therein lies the rub for Trump. Trump performs remarkably well with blue-collar white men. He performs terribly with college educated white men, women of any background, black voters, Hispanic voters, Asian voters -- pretty much everyone other than blue-collar white men.

For Trump to make inroads with those voters, he risks alienating his core. If he wants to build a Hispanic coalition, he is going to have to walk away from his wall. If he walks away from his wall, he is going to see his voters walk away from him.

On top of that, only a quarter of voters in the polling believe Trump is trustworthy. In fact, Trump is actually the only candidate running for president viewed as less trustworthy than Clinton. On top of that, is the only candidate with higher unfavorable ratings than Hillary Clinton.

Beyond that, take the exit polling from North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Missouri. All are swing states. The exit polling data from those states show that fully one-third of Republican voters would not vote for Trump in a general election. Of voters who rejected Trump so far, that number goes up to 40 percent of Republicans. Hillary Clinton has no such problem with the Democrats. Virtually all Democrats would support her in the general election.

Trump voters, to make a plausible case for him in November, have to now discard all the data they have used thus far to declare him a credible candidate. They have to ignore all the polling that Trump championed for so long himself. A Trump nomination will bring about a Hillary Clinton presidency.

Republicans face a problem. Because so many of their voters would not turn out to support Trump, they need a third party candidate if Trump is the nominee. Someone will have to run for president to motivate a Republican turn out, if only to get voters to show up for down ballot races. A Trump nomination does not just guarantee a Hillary Clinton presidency, but also makes it likely the GOP loses legislative seats at the state and national level.

Trump voters who disagree are only arguing with the very data that shows Trump will be the Republican nominee. The only way to avoid it is to avoid making Trump the Republican presidential nominee.


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; assclownposting; caitlynjenner; cultists4trump; downticket; erickerickson; erickson; gangof14; glennbeck; indenial; meghanmccain; mittromney; neilbush; propagandadujour; tdscoffeclutch; tediban; tedspacificpartners; trump; trumpbaggage; usualsuspect; willthemudstick
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1 posted on 03/18/2016 7:32:49 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Erick Erickson would lose an argument with a petunia.


2 posted on 03/18/2016 7:35:55 AM PDT by LostPassword
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To: Kaslin

To take anything this Trump hating, self-obsessed, self-promoting, name dropping opportunist says requires a considerable suspension of all disbelief. Even then, it goes over like a turd in a punch bowl.

Sorry Erick.....go eat another double cheeseburger and find some venue you can glom onto and drop a few more names.


3 posted on 03/18/2016 7:36:32 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Kaslin

Those same polls back in the 80’s showed Carter beating Reagan before the general election, the same polls showing John Kerry beating Bush. What else you got Erick?


4 posted on 03/18/2016 7:37:56 AM PDT by Tamatoa (Fight for our America, Fight for our Country I fought to defend!!!)
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To: Kaslin

STFUEE. You are part of the problem.


5 posted on 03/18/2016 7:39:03 AM PDT by New Jersey Realist
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To: Kaslin

Okay then, Erick, which other candidate could beat Hillary? Cruz? Kasich? ROTFLMAO.


6 posted on 03/18/2016 7:40:05 AM PDT by Seruzawa (If you agree with the French raise your hand. If you are French raise both hands)
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To: Kaslin
For Trump to make inroads with those voters, he risks alienating his core. If he wants to build a Hispanic coalition, he is going to have to walk away from his wall. If he walks away from his wall, he is going to see his voters walk away from him.

Disagree. If Trump wants to build a Hispanic coalition, he only needs to argue why legal immigration is better for Hispanics than illegal immigration. Legal voters will see the logic if he presents his case. The only losers with legal immigration only is the cheap labor express - Chamber of Commerce and others who celebrate the low wages and lack of protection for illegal workers. If Trump articulates this, he can win Hispanics over from Hillary.

More important, Trump can appeal to voters as Americans, rather than dividing them into narrow demographic profiles and pitting one group against another - the only way someone as unpleasant as Hillary could win. Trump has reach out and articulate why his positions are correct, but it is doable.

7 posted on 03/18/2016 7:41:15 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("A Bill of Rights that means what the majority wants it to meand over an is worthless." - Scalia)
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To: Kaslin

There’s so much wrong here it’s hard to know where to start, but in sum, having admitted that he’s been wrong all along about Trump, maybe now would be a good time to eat a bowl of STFU!


8 posted on 03/18/2016 7:41:15 AM PDT by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: Kaslin
What many of us misunderstood was Republican voter anger.

To the author: It ain't just Republicans.

9 posted on 03/18/2016 7:42:35 AM PDT by johniegrad
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To: LostPassword

“Erick Erickson would lose an argument with a petunia.”

Petunia? Is that what you call a George Soros plant?


10 posted on 03/18/2016 7:42:43 AM PDT by Cincinnatus.45-70 (What do DemocRats enjoy more than a truckload of dead babies? Unloading them with a pitchfork!)
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To: Kaslin

I wonder how much he makes as a Consultant for Hillary’s campaign?


11 posted on 03/18/2016 7:43:12 AM PDT by eyeamok
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To: Kaslin

A dolt who laughed at trump and called him all sorts of things. It was media type like this that made trump start swinging. He has taken them all out

EE is and has been for sometime a fool


12 posted on 03/18/2016 7:43:32 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Blue Jays

The trite "Trump only does well with uneducated white men" meme is utterly tiresome and threadbare. Give it a rest, Erick.
I observe how inner-city Hillary supporters work on Mars spacecraft and/or cures for cancer when not working hard at their 9-5 jobs.


13 posted on 03/18/2016 7:44:56 AM PDT by Blue Jays (Rock Hard, Ride Free)
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To: Kaslin
Arguing with this guy?

Not smart.

14 posted on 03/18/2016 7:44:58 AM PDT by hoagy62 (Timid Men prefer the 'Calm of Despotism' to the 'Tempestuous Sea of Liberty'. ~ T. Jefferson)
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To: Kaslin

Problem is as any good statistician knows, statics can be created to validate any opinion.

Polling is statistical manipulation.

Polling told us Hillary Clinton would win MI by 20 points. She lost.

Polling told us Trump Clone Bevin would lose the KY Gov race.

He won.

Polling in 2004 had Bush 12 points behind Kerry at this time.

Bush won


15 posted on 03/18/2016 7:49:38 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: Kaslin
"Many of us presumed hoped he would eventually fade. Many of us presumed prayed he would eventually burn out his supporters with his gaffes, waffling and walk backs."

Joke's on you, isn't it Erickson?

Now go screw yourself.

16 posted on 03/18/2016 7:50:28 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Rope. Tree. Politician/Journalist. Some assembly required.)
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To: Kaslin

Dear Erick the Clown

If you want to work for Hillary, just work for Hillary. Don’t try to pretend you opposition to Trump is anything but a petulant childish reaction to your pathetic little websites failure to so much as slow his race to the nomination.

IF Trump is such the disaster as the You GOPE Astroturf predict, then the GOPE should let him win simply to teach the GOP voters a lesson for the future. Show them the GOPE knows better then the voters who should be the candidate.

These daily desperate attempts to stop Trump at all costs send the voters the exact opposite message.


17 posted on 03/18/2016 7:53:05 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: Kaslin
The problem now, as Trump appears more and more likely to be the Republican nominee, is the data. This time it is not Trump skeptics arguing about the data. It is Trump supporters doing so. They find themselves in the ironic position of arguing that the very same data set that showed Trump's rise also shows he cannot beat Hillary Clinton. They want the first half of the data to be true, while hoping the other half of the very same data is false.

Erick "The Red" Erickson - One-Note Johnny.

Guess Erick's face was so buried in his computer writing this hitpiece that he didn't hear the first two salvos from the superbattleship USS Trump's 18 inch guns firing at the Hillary! campaign...

The year was 2016, the war had just begun...
The Demmies had the biggest battle-axe, she had the biggest mouth...
Trump will find that Demmie battle-axe that's makin' such a fuss...
He'll sink the Hillary! 'cause the world depends on him...
Trump's boys will hit the decks a-runnin' and spin those videos around...
Yeah, they'll find the mighty Hillary! and then they'll put her down...

18 posted on 03/18/2016 7:54:52 AM PDT by kiryandil (Chicago, March 2016: The Delphi Technique in action...)
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To: Pollster1

Hispacnic voters got to eat and fee their familes. This notion that voters are monolithic blocs that can only be appeased by pair-emtive surrender to their every whim is why the GOPe has failed so miserably the last 30 years.


19 posted on 03/18/2016 7:54:58 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: Kaslin

Is this Erickson guy Oliver Hardy’s grandson? I’ll swear: just put a little hitler-mustache on him, a black derby, a too-short tie and a suit jacket that’s way too small; give him a little puzzled-looking sidekick named Stan, and he might have a future as a real comedic act.
Because the comedy he is presently purveying just isn’t cutting it.


20 posted on 03/18/2016 7:56:37 AM PDT by Migraine (Diversity is great -- until it happens to YOU.)
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