Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[Buckeye McFrog]

If Republicans could do math we wouldn’t have a $20 trillion national debt.

[stephenjohnbanker]

Both will be highly paid lobbyists. Just watch.

Like Trent Lott did. How the rigged game is played.

[fooman]

Cruz has every incentive to rack up delegates.

Utah should and other western states should be more friendly ground.

[20yearsofinternet]

Great post. Highlights just how “Anti-Establishment” Cruz actually isn’t.

[wiseprince]

The amount of votes Trump is getting is amazing. Can’t believe they don’t want those votes. This is all about power, nothing about policy, don’t let them fool you. It’s Trump or bust at this point

[Dead Dog]

Cruz without Rubio is going to be formidable in the comming primaries. Next time, hitch your wagon to a conservative.

[plewis1250]

Not even half way there and you are calling it.

Wishful thinking on your part.

Cruz has a chance, Kasich needs to go home.

[Vermont Lt]

I think if Cruz split, closely, the remaining states he could create a coalition of the anti trump candidates. By that I mean he and Kasich could stay in the race with the assumption that the non-trump folks would consolidate their delegates. There is a path that way. It is still a long shot.

[TexasCajun]

I am so sick of hearing Ted Cruz is Establishment!

Trump supporters will find out just how anti-Establishment Cruz is when the time comes!

Trump & Cruz will come together to deny the RNC a brokered Convention.

How do the suspended candidates delegates get allocated?

[TTFlyer]

So, you think Cruz is gonna beat Trump in the Northeast? There’s a bridge in Brooklyn for sale....

[Catsrus]

Except there are a lot of anti-Cruz supporters out there too. Nothing says Cruz will pick up Rubio’s supporters. This isn’t a game of when a team loses, they automatically join another team. It doesn’t work that way.

[Utmost Certainty]

“Cruz without Rubio is going to be formidable in the comming primaries. Next time, hitch your wagon to a conservative.”

Rubio’s votes have been downtrending for awhile now, yet Trump is racking up more victories than ever. Your analysis is off.

[proust]

“Trump supporters will find out just how anti-Establishment Cruz is when the time comes!”

The time already came. He sided with BLM retards.

[skeeter]

Agree. Might as well let this thing go the whole nine yards. I may even get to cast a primary vote thats not totally meaningless this time.

[Lisbon1940]

So two guys should get out because they can’t get 1237 on the first ballot, but the other guy is falling short, too, yet he should stay in. Did Trump get 57% of the delegates yesterday.

[DrewsMum]

It’s not over until the convention.

Cruz will be in until then.

I, along with millions, will be behind him.

[Vermont Lt]

It will if they want “anyone but trump.”

The general public won’t go for it, but they are not political whores like the candidates.

[20yearsofinternet]

Nothing says Cruz will pick up Rubio’s supporters. This isn’t a game of when a team loses, they automatically join another team. It doesn’t work that way.

---

Exactly. In fact, when someone is deeply committed to a candidate, has donated time and money in the primary, it’s very likely they might just skip voting if their candidate drops out of the race, or has absolutely no path forward. The “no vote” form of protest vote.

[usafa92]

538 is the most dishonest site. They have a whole work up about how Trump is only 97% on target for delegates and there is a good possibility of a contested convention. Only problem is, since MO is technically not called yet, they have assigned ZERO delegates to Trump. However, all indications are that Trump will take 47 of the 52 delegates at which point Trump is at 103% of target. Further, if you look at just NY and NJ alone, Trump is looking at 110-115 given as he will win both states. NJ is WTA and NY is proportional. Factoring in D1’s numbers here, Trump is realistically over 800 at this point. So Trump has to in effect get about 400 delegates in the remaining primaries factoring out NJ and NY. This is done. Over and done.