Posted on 03/06/2016 8:37:46 AM PST by SoConPubbie
One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.
When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn't clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.
If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP's initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote. The darker the county, the higher the vote percentage. Cruz's map gets darker. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's get lighter -- the latter, dramatically so.
Another way of looking at it is the percentage-point shift between the final percentage in each county and the percentage from the early totals. Cruz's map is all blue, all increased. Rubio's is not.
One more way of looking at it, showing the shifts more clearly still. Anything above the line means an improvement between the final or day-of percent and the absentee totals.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Good point.
There are several different numbers out there. For instance, cnn has it 389 -302. LA has only allotted 35 of their 46 delegates so far.
Ah.....I see. Thanks.
So that’s just a prediction of how the remaining delegates from Saturday will pan out? Ok. Thanks for clarifying.
I think this was the last hurrah for Cruz.
Cruz is taking support from Rubio, and Florida is coming up soon. So that hurt’s Rubio and helps Trump. I see Cruz maybe winning in Missouri and Colorado, based on the OK, and KS results.
Coming up:
Today 3/6
Peurto Rico - No polls so anybody’s guess. The 3 superdelegates already announced for Rubio, so Rubio might win this one. But Peurto Rico has severe economic problems and nobody is trusted on the economy as much as Trump.
Tuesday 3/8
HI
ID
MI Trump +17
MS Trump +24
Reagan was 70 when he took office.
And the numbers from here don’t match either of the other two:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
I found them last night. I think from a post by Nate Silver of 538 as he was live blogging last night’s primary results. It show raw total votes also.
If you’re able to read, you are able to read right, those figures have always become the sold figures a day or so later.
You are able to follow along here right? I’m not wasting my time by clarifying this again for you right?
Do you want me to post it in bigger text?
Would an audio help out?
Come back to me in 48 hours when those other sites have finally rested on the number I am giving you now.
Okay?
Reagan had not turned 70 yet when he took office.
Sshhhh. The trumpeters will ell you that is all voter fraud. ‘Has to be the case wherever the grand poobah doesn’t win by a Yuuugge margin
Why are you trying to pick a fight? I was just thanking you for clarifying that these are not yet official numbers and that they come from a site that you said “jumps out” and predicts pretty accurately how things will pan out.
Dude, nobody is trying to fight with you. You can stop taking offense now.
Well, it does not make me sick to hear that.
Well..., it sounded like you were discrediting the numbers.
I wouldn’t post them if the site hadn’t been dead on target all year.
I apologize if I took the comments the wrong way.
One can only hope.
69 and 340 days....is that better?
It's ok. A lot of people on heightened tensions nowadays.
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