Posted on 03/02/2016 7:02:15 AM PST by TigerClaws
In order to be considered for the nomination of the Republican Party RNC rule 40 states that the canidate must win a minimum of 8 states with a majority (50% + 1). Going into the 2012 RNC convention rule 40 previously stated that elegiblity for the GOP nomination a canidate shall win 5 states with a simple plurality.
In 2012 Ron Paul met the requirements of the 2012 version of rule 40. Well that was untenable for the party elites. They did not want it see Mitt Romney challenged on the convention floor by Paulbots.
So in 2012 the RNC changed rule 40 to the 8 state majority requirement right before the convention which effectively disqualified Ron Paul from any possibility of becoming the party nominee.
Enter 2016.
Rule 40 with the 8 state majority threshold remains in place. As the canidates stay in the race it's looking more and more like no one will reach the 8 state 50% + 1 requirement. Thus even if a canidate receives the required 1237 delegates to win the nomination he may not be qualified because he did not meet the requirements of rule 40.
Under that scenario which is looking more and more likely as candidates remain in the race who knows how the party rule makers will change the rules the day before the convention. On thing is certain the chances of them treating the current front runner "unfairly" are very high.
If no one reaches rule 40 requirements, even if DJT earns 1237 delegates during the primary process, does rule 40 throw us into a brokered convention?
How many times is this going to be posted. This was on a few days ago.
I believe it’s a majority of a state’s delegation. Trump is at five states right now: South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Massachusetts.
He’ll easily get to eight.
Cruz is at one: Texas.
Everyone else is shut out.
With Cruz winning Alaska and Texas, I propose Delegate allocation by land mass won!
No. People spend so much time ever 4 years obsessing about a brokered convention, and they never happen. People should be nicer to their blood pressure and stop worrying about things that don’t happen.
> With Cruz winning Alaska and Texas, I propose Delegate allocation by land mass won!
LOL ;-)
So far, in the proportional delegate states, Trump has won:
235 of 516 delegates for a percentage of 45.5%
There are 1,362 delegates left in the proportional states... meaning the states that aren’t “winner take all”.
If Trump wins those delegates at 45.5% like he won the previous proportional states, that gives him:
620 delegates from those states.
If you add back the 285 delegates he’s won so far, that gives him a total of:
905 delegates.
Now, there are 382 delegates in the winner take all states remaining. If he wins ALL of the winner take all states, he reaches:
1,287 delegates.... which is 50 delegates more than needed to win.
If the other candidates can pull 50 delegates away from Trump... either by winning a winner take all state or by preventing him from continuing to win with 45.5% of the delegates, it gets real tight.
The elites may fund Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich to keep them in the race and stop Trump from going over 50%.
We will know for sure if Rubio stays in the race after losing Florida. The ONLY reason he would stay in post Florida is to split the vote.
Five candidates remain. At least one of them has to win over 8 states. Even if all five evenly split, that’s 10 states apiece. Trump already has about 25% of the delegates needed with about 27.5% of the delegates needed, and has 9 state wins . Cruz has 3 states and about 13% of the delegates needed. Rubio’s one state and 9% lags even further behind. For this argument to be valid, 5 of the remaining candidates would have to split 39 states in such a way as to insure no one got the required delegates. Possible, but hardly likely.
Just to be clear:
The eight-state rule is about controlling the majority of *delegates* from a state. It is not necessary to get a majority of votes.
I am funding Cruz. I am not an “elite.”
Oldplayer
Wow! Foggy brain. I missed that Alaska went to Trump.
I heard conservative radio talk show host Michael Medved say that there should be a brokered convention if Donald Trump wins the most votes, so the party can pick someone that the people can support.
Trump only got 46% of the delegates awarded last night. Which means that the other candidates got 54%. The question is whether Trump will have a majority at the convention and if not whether the other candidates can make a deal that leaves him out.
Correct. When it gets to winner take all - its OVER.
Trump will win Florida and Ohio (Rubio, Kasich home states).
OK, what other states does anyone reasonably think that Cruz, Rubio or Kasich could win?
Barring something really outrageous, Trump pretty much makes the race over on March 15.
Here is an excellent post that spells it out
The GOP Convention, Rule 40, the Magic 8
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3402699/posts
No.
Trump already has 5.
And in 2 weeks, the winner-take-all states are up. So, Trump only has to win 3 out of the next 35 or so states.
Cruz has 1.
Rubio still has 0.
Yes, this is what I understand. There was someone here a few days ago said this is basically Rule 40(a) BUT there is also a Rule 40(b) which basically says that the GOP Leadership has the option pull a candidate of its choice out of their ass. I call always this PDOOMA (pulled directly out of my a$$).
I don’t know if this is true, but I guess it would be worth researching.
I haven’t been all that interested because if it gets to that stage my position is that we’re down to a shooting war.
+1
Medved really said that???
For the sake of my blood pressure, and against all instincts, I am going to heed your advice. Thank you.
:-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.