Pundits call this the “Big Mo“, meaning Big Momentum… unless, of course, they are describing it in relationship to Donald Trump. With anti-Trump media, momentum becomes an inconvenient reality to be ignored; because in the 2016 presidential election cycle MSM define winning as who comes next closest to third place…. or something.
Rasmussen Polling and Tracking shows Donald Trump taking a much larger lead than the media are willing to discuss. Trump has picked up another five points since South Carolina:
[…] The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Voters finds Trump with 36% support, giving him a 15-point lead over Senator Marco Rubio who earns 21% of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz is in third place with 17%. (Link)
In addition Reuters polling averages completely validate what we previously predicted over a year ago. In a three way race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz, candidate Donald Trump locks up 46%, Ted Cruz 25% and Marco Rubio 24%. (link)
If either Cruz or Rubio drop out, Trump will jump over 60% gaining roughly a third to a half (or more) of the eliminated opponent. So much for the “ceilings” the pundits are so happy to discuss.
This statistical reality is also supported by the Washington Post who outline the change in overall support for Donald Trump if he continues winning, and becomes the nominee.
(link)
Combine all of this data and what you find is in a two person race Donald Trump will command approximately 65% of the vote and the non-Trump (Cruz or Rubio) can only pull themselves to approximately 35%.
In order to shrink the field the state-by-state races are where the battle takes shape. And when you look at the state-by-state current positioning Donald Trump continues to lead in each of the contests:
Georgia Polling Released Today:
Trump 34%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 9%
Carson 8%
Undecided 7%
(link)
West Virginia Polling Released Today:
Trump 40%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Kasich 6%
(link)
Arizona Polling:
Trump 34.8%
Rubio 22.7%
Cruz 14.1%
Kasich 7.1%
Undecided 21.3%
No data for Carson
(link)
Ohio Polling:
Trump 31%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 13%
Carson 5%
(link)
Tonight we begin in Nevada. The Nevada Caucuses begin at 5:00pm PST until 8:00pm PST. With the caucus results most likely coming out until after 11:00pm Eastern it will be a long night of checking the results.
Additionally, it appears the Republican Party of Nevada is anticipating a much larger turnout than previous caucus events.
Shenanigans ?
As will all “caucus elections”, let us hope for the best, but always be prepared for the worst….
